geoff king

Bloomberg Economics Brief - subscribe @ Retweets not endorsements. Opinions own and poorly thought out.

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Turkey’s 2025 Budget assumes a 17% minimum-wage hike next year, our estimates show.

That matches its end-2025 inflation forecast.

But we think a 30% increase is the likelier outcome, pointing to a gradual easing of both inflation and borrowing costs. 

https://t.co/MdLqWUqPDi

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Banking Authority BRSA's restructuring move is technically expansionary.

In practice, other regulation in place will curb any credit growth.

The move will benefit the banking sector balance sheets by limiting flows into NPL.

More on @TheTerminal
https://t.co/4c22yC445W

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Medium Term Plan - Inflation

1) End-2024 at 41.5% - closer to our 43%, above CBRT's 38% *but* still within its 34-42% band.
2) End-2027 at 7%. The government doesn't see inflation at target even 4.5 years after policy pivot.
*If* elections in 2028, that extends it to 5 years.

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

Liz Truss is out. Lettuce sales rocket. #GeneralElections2024.

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

The Labour Party wins big in #GeneralElection2024📷, while #France goes to the polls on Sunday. But what does it all mean for the econmies of the #UK and #Europe? Bloomberg Economics have their say in today's EuroEco Brief https://t.co/Whu2UwXeqG.

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

The Labour Party wins big in #GeneralElection2024, while #France goes to the polls on Sunday. But what does it all mean for the econmies of the #UK and #Europe? Bloomberg Economics have their say in today's EuroEco Brief https://t.co/Whu2UwWGB8.

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Turkey's gray list exit may boost confidence but the likelihood of it driving sizeable inflows may be small - as that may have already happened.
IMF research shows getting listed hurts inflows but recovery starts immediately after.
Maintaining the policy pivot will be key ahead

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Turkey gets 1st rating upgrade in a decade on policy flip, but it needs to do more to achieve investment grade.

That means
-tight monetary policy
-less FX borrowing
-higher FX reserves
It will also need stamina — it took nine years to move from B+ to investment grade in 2012.

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

The CBRT holds inflation forecasts steady.

End-2024: 36%.
Bloomberg Economics: 42%.
Median CBRT survey: 42.1%.
CBRT forecast range upper bound: 42%.

End-2025: 14%.
Bloomberg Economics: 23%.
Implied rate from CBRT survey: ~25%.
CBRT forecast range upper bound: 21%.

1/2

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

Hong Kong says officials asked Lionel Messi to step onto the pitch to meet fans after learning he’d sit out a much-hyped match, following uproar over his non-appearance on the pitch https://t.co/ey4HEXDdxN via @luxury The messi fiasco really is a messy fiasco - the messiest.

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

My latest: How much has the Red Sea disruption cost Egypt?

About $150m in lost Suez Canal revenue, so far

That's not a large sum for an economy with annual GDP of ~$400b

But:
- Costs continue to pile up
- Egypt is already facing a currency crisis

Full analysis on @TheTerminal

[Selva Baziki @SelvaBaziki]

Three risks could lead to higher inflation, weaker lira and erosion in sentiment in Turkey.

1- Outsized public spending could fuel inflation:
-Boosting demand before March vote and higher taxes after.
-Taking 2023 as a benchmark, that could add 7ppt to year-end inflation.

1/3

[Pekka Tahkola 🇺🇦 @pekkatahkola]

As you all know, cycling is a fair weather activity. And we can prove it. Right now it's -28°C in Oulu, and we've had almost 1300 ppl cycle today on this path alone 👌🫡☃️🚲💨
#Oulu #MeanwhileInOulu

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

Red Sea trade

Number of ships passing Bab el-Mandeb:
- Now: 114
- 1 week ago: 131
- 1 month ago: 272
- 6 months ago: 252

% drop vs a month ago:
- Gas carriers: 96%
- Container ships: 80%
- Oil tankers: 55%
- Bulk carriers: 25%

https://t.co/W3nDlSeLNf

[Jamie Rush @RushEconomics]

How far will borrowing costs fall as inflation recedes? For three decades, the natural rate of interest was falling. Now, we think it's going up. See the Bloomberg Originals documentary (based on our original research) here:
@economics
https://t.co/K2E2dNbdcj via @economics

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

Cocaine is close to overtaking oil (maybe this year) as Colombia’s chief export after record output in 2022 drove up shipments. Production will likely grow further as govt efforts to foster peace mean more lenient policies toward cartels. @economics {NSN S0ZE1EDWRGG0 <GO>}

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

Why weren't they prepared?
Heatwave sees hundreds fall ill at World Scout Jamboree in South Korea https://t.co/mdiwJ1DfJ4

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

If I understand things correctly, I no longer tweet I 'x-file', it is no longer a thread it is an 'x-pand' and a any readers added context is now an 'x-plain'.

Would be grateful for any and all new terminology that may be out there.

[geoff king @geoffatwork]

Given everything that is happening there now, I think I will pass thanks twitter (or whatever you're callling yourself today). #Greecewildfires #Greece #Greecefires

[Jens Nordvig @jnordvig]

Lot of people upset about the change from 'twitter' to 'X'

but how come you are hearing much less about Bloomberg changing the ticker for 2y swaps from 'USSW2' to 'US0SFR2'?