Matthias Breuckmann

Fascinated by the art of growing family, wisdom, wealth like a Bonsai Tree

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@__MattLindsay I think reason for the sell-off is the time it will take until the business will be cash flow positive (post capex, interest, capital lease obligations, tax). When do you think this will be the case according to your models? Thanks for all the content!

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@EarningsB4Hugs Looking for information on capex inflation and how long it might persist

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@NerdcapK I am still a shareholder but wondering: how can a CEO say this in May and not have this done by July?! „We intend our refinancing to be complete after the expiration of our make-whole period which ends June 15, 2026.“

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap just to confirm: I am a shareholder and would love to increase my position but find it hard. There was an article in German news about Strategic Customer Agreements by Micron and Arista cementing prices until 2030 - therefore I fear the capex increase is for longer than hoped.

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap I agree it may be a temporary increase in capex but now is the time they need cash flow the most. And it is, unfortunately, another layer of uncertainty on which we have to form a view but will only know several quarters into the future. Therefore hard to increase position.

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap 13 being „half the anticipated decline“ and that is obvisouly purely core business related - the DC renovation capex went down as planned

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap Part of the decrease in capex was due to their renovation of DCs last year which is done now, the LfL capex for the core business is increasing.

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap … and they only have 18months until TMUS payments run out

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@Gwanouradat @alphacenC @GoodHouseCap What is your view? -> Net Debt / Ebitda is currently flat but they get usd 100m from TMUS p.a. + capex went up by >usd 40m p.a. due to component inflation. So they have to grow cash flow by 140 usd from here for net debt / ebitda to stay flat. That‘s huge vs current Ebitda

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@GoodHouseCap I am a shareholder as well, so it would be great to get other views to form my own

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@GoodHouseCap I agree on this but I am concerned that Net Debt in absolute terms is growing every quarter and ND/Ebitda as well. Meanwhile capex has not been going up until now but will now and we do not know whether they can increase prices to offset.

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@RecurveCapital Thank you very much for the answer

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@NerdcapK Have you looked at the future of the ipv4 business? When will we see ipv4 vs ipv6 replacement in cogent numbers? Do you think this is ultimately a shrinking business? Thank you very much!

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@NerdcapK @FerdSoler @RecurveCapital I am trying to set-up a group discussion with some of these. Still waiting to see who would be interested.

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@NerdcapK @FerdSoler @RecurveCapital Did anybody compare notes with the hedge funds in the name, eg Park West Asset Management LLC?

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@NerdcapK Many thanks, I am concerned that we have no idea now regarding ROIC for this capex as long as we do not know the pricing in the market. At the same time, Lumen is also under pressure and could increase prices. Do we not have too many unknowns?

[Matthias Breuckmann @germanbonsai]

@RecurveCapital Many thanks, I am concerned that we have no idea now regarding ROIC for this capex as long as we do not know the pricing in the market. At the same time, Lumen is also under pressure and could increase prices. Do we not have too many unknowns?