Clint McGill

Grain farmer, Consultant for @CMCRiskMgt MN

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

"How strange and foolish is man.

He loses his health in gaining wealth.

Then, to regain his health he wastes his wealth.

He ruins his present while worrying about his future, but weeps in the future by recalling his past.”

~ Ali ibn Abi Talib

[Clint McGill @gillclint]

@aghedger CF ect all gapped higher @ open

[Andy Nyquist @andrewnyquist]

$TLT
CHART #2 Treasury bonds broke down in mid-day as rates jumped. But recently TLT has rallied back to test the underside of its 50-day MA. Still bearish but watching... #IBDPartner

[Andy Nyquist @andrewnyquist]

$AAPL
CHART #1 Apple posted a strong breakout and follow through this month. Will we see a retest (another buying opportunity) this summer? #IBDPartner

[Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound]

“Sir, the trader is long energy”

“Tweet ‘deal imminent’”

“Sir, Iran is denying it”

“Take crude down 6% anyway”

“Sir, that doesn’t make sense”

“It’s not supposed to”

[Carnivore Aurelius ©🥩 ☀️🦙 @AlpacaAurelius]

the best antidepressant is exercise

the best protein bar is steak

the best detox is the sauna

the best anti inflammatory is touching grass

the best multivitamin is beef liver

the best immune booster is sunlight

nature gives us all the best medicine for free

[Clint McGill @gillclint]

🔴 BREAKING TORNADO ON THE GROUND - Strong Tornadoes Possible With LIVE S... https://t.co/I2h5NPZfhb via @YouTube

Fort Dodge IA

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[Clint McGill @gillclint]

My fuel cost to plant corn was $1.45/acre

[farmdoc daily @farmdocDaily]

The price of #farm #diesel, used to power everything from tractors and seed drills to fertilizer spreaders continues to rise. “This has really been a shock across the board,” @farmdocDaily's Gerald Mashange told the @FinancialTimes.

https://t.co/zJGU4rZr3y

[Andy Nyquist @andrewnyquist]

$TECK Teck Resources... This is one of the "breakout" alert emails that I received from MarketSurge this morning. There's so much value in receiving trading "ideas" (via breakout alerts and pattern recognition technology). Offers you great stocks to do homework on... #IBDpartner

[Andy Nyquist @andrewnyquist]

$IWM My article from 2 weeks ago. Updated chart below. #IBDpartner

[Sama Hoole @SamaHoole]

The year is 1950. Your doctor lights a cigarette and tells you smoking is fine. He read it in a study. He is telling the truth about having read it. He does not know, or is not saying, that the study was funded by the tobacco industry.

The year is 1958. Your doctor tells you to eat less fat. The evidence is contested. The contestation is not in the public messaging. The food industry has been helpful in clarifying which findings deserve attention. Some researchers who published contradictory data have been quietly defunded. Ancel Keys is on the cover of Time magazine.

The year is 1962. Your doctor prescribes thalidomide to your pregnant wife for morning sickness. It has been approved. The FDA gave it the green light in Europe. Twelve thousand children will be born with severe limb malformations before anyone in an official capacity acknowledges the problem. The families are told the drug was safe. The drug was approved. Both of these things remain true.

The year is 1972. Your doctor prescribes Valium. Britain is in the grip of a benzodiazepine wave that will last two decades. The dependency risk is known internally. It is not shared. Your doctor is not lying to you. He was not told either.

The year is 1999. Your doctor prescribes Vioxx for your arthritis. It is newer than ibuprofen, well-tolerated, and Merck has a study showing it works. Merck also has internal data suggesting it roughly doubles the risk of heart attack. This data will not reach your doctor for four more years. Fifty thousand people are estimated to have died in the interim. Merck eventually settles for 4.85 billion dollars. No criminal charges are brought.

The year is 2002. Your doctor prescribes OxyContin. Purdue Pharma trained its sales representatives to tell doctors the addiction risk was less than one percent. That figure came from a letter, not a study. The letter was about patients with terminal cancer on short-term doses in hospital settings. Your doctor is a GP with a patient who has a bad back. Nobody draws a distinction. Nobody is required to.

The year is 2008. Your doctor checks your cholesterol. Your LDL is elevated. You are prescribed a statin. Nobody mentions that the number needed to treat for primary prevention is approximately 250. Nobody mentions that the muscle deterioration you'll notice over the next two years is listed as a rare side effect rather than a documented pattern affecting a meaningful percentage of patients. The trial that informed the prescription was funded by the manufacturer.

Now it is today.

Your doctor has new guidelines. New studies. New consensus.

He is confident.

He has always been confident.

The confidence has never been the problem.

The confidence is, in fact, precisely the problem.

[Anthony Crudele @AnthonyCrudele]

Everyone obsesses over strategy, discipline, psychology.

But in my experience, the biggest factor is market environment.

Some periods just fit your style and strategy and when they do, everything clicks.

That’s why risk management matters so much. Not just to avoid blowing up…but to stay in the game long enough to catch those runs.

Because here’s the truth:
Every strategy works sometimes. Nothing works all the time.

The edge isn’t being perfect.
It’s showing up the same way, over and over, surviving the drawdowns, and pressing when conditions are right.

You don’t need a magic system (there isn’t one anyway). You need reps, consistency, and the patience to wait for your environment.

Stay in the game → take advantage when it’s there → repeat.

[Grant Cardone @GrantCardone]

Read Between the Lines - JD Vance announcement “we didn’t get a deal,” is really code to Iran, Pakistan is no longer supporting you. You’re alone in this.

“Whatever shortcomings of the negotiation, it wasn’t because of the Pakistanis who did an amazing job and really tried to help us and the Iranians bridge the gap and get to a deal,” Vance said.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Chevron Warns California Facing Historic Fuel Crisis As Diesel Hits Record $7 https://t.co/va44YL0BIz

[Throwback Iran @Tarikh_Eran]

Wild scenes from Karaj

Iranians have come to the streets and are singing the pre 1979 Iranian anthem.

Suddenly all the accounts sharing regime gatherings and describing them as “rallying behind the flag” have gone quite

THIS IS THE REAL IRAN

[See It Market @seeitmarket]

$TLT Treasury bonds attempting to bounce from band of support. #IBDpartner

[Nightingale Associates @FCNightingale]

Minneapolis Office Sales

Ameriprise Financial Center $6.25M vs $200M in 2016 ↓97%

Wells Fargo Center $85M vs $314M in 2019 ↓73%

Forum $6.5M vs $73.7M in 2019 ↓91%

Kickernick $3.79M vs $19.15M in 2017 ↓80%

Lumber Exchange $1 vs $24.3M in 2019 ↓99+%

Minneapolis St. Paul Vacancy
22,227,839 SF
Minneapolis CBD 32.6%
St. Paul CBD 33.1%

-Cushman and Wakefield
#CommercialRealEstate

[Joel Fischer 🇺🇸 @realJoelFischer]

Democrats are suddenly worried that Iranian terror sleeper cells will now attack the USA from within.

The same Democrats who let them all in.

The same Democrats who want you to be unarmed.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

VIDEO EXPLAINER: The most important map of the Third Gulf War — the oilfields, the Strait of Hormuz, and the bypass pipelines.

Plus a look at how, two weeks into the war, Iran is still exporting lots of its oil, and most of it, via the strait.

@opinion