At $87k, Long-term holders are finally easing off the sell-side pressure.
The LTH sell-side risk ratio flashed “Low Liquidity” for the first time since the tariff tantrum at $84k - and before that, the yen carry implosion at $49k. $BTC
Eventually the "top is in" guys will be right, but it doesn't take any skill at all to call for a "cycle top" after every local top that has occurred since 65k...
At that point you are literally guessing, and hoping that when the top does finally come, no one will remember that you called it 3 times on the way up already...
#Bitcoin locked in a three-day bullish divergence, right on top of key support.
The previous two bottoms formed with 3-day divergences as well.
Time for history to repeat?
Daily update on $BTC.
It remains to be stuck in a range, which is between $86.5-90K.
If it tests $86.5K again --> likely we'll break through and are testing lower grounds ($83K and $80K) and more importantly, trend remains to be continued in the downwards direction.
If it tests $90K again --> break of the 20-Day MA and likely a strong move upwards on the horizon to $105K.
$ETH is compressing further into the range.
As I explained yesterday, I'm still waiting on lower prices to go long on Ethereum.
This weekend is choppy as usual, and if Bitcoin goes for a Sunday pump and rejection, ETH could be interesting to short too.
If we sweep ~$2,986 or ~$3,000 internal liquidity with a clear market structure break/failure after, I'll execute shorts.
I'm only executing shorts lower if we get a clear market structure break after trapping longs.
The ~$2,800 rangelow is still the level I'm eyeing for longs after reversals. Preferably after a sweep of the 1H $2,809 low.
Triggers are set, now we wait patiently.
All the doom and frustration on the timeline when you can still buy $TSLA under $500 before it 2x's this year.
Silver simplicity was this year, TSLA will be next year.
So obvious, so simple.
$BTC will see a breakout within the next 48 hours!
We are likely to see heavy volatility before 2026 starts.
Be prepared.
I would say the chance of a downside breakout is higher, around 60–70%. However, in trading, things can always turn the other way. My advice is to trade the breakout. If you enter a short or long (swing) right now, it is guesswork, so it’s better to wait for the breakout, watch for the retest, and enter a trade from there.
BTC/stables has reached a strong monthly support now.
Stablecoin supply is still rising, which means liquidity isn't leaving the markets.
IMO, we could see a rally in Bitcoin around $100,000 in Q1 2026.
Bitcoin will not be stuck between $85K and $90K forever.
It’s temporarily suppressed below its long-term mean
Spot: ~$87.6k
Long-term structure (Power Law):
Trend value: ~$119k
Deviation: −26%
Model fit: R² ≈ 0.96
Numerically:
BTC is trading at ~ 74¢ on the dollar relative to its long-run adoption curve.
That condition has historically resolved via mean reversion, not stagnation.
Short-term structure (Dealer hedging flows):
Active constraint: $85k–$90k
Forced selling on strength
Forced buying on weakness
→ Trend suppressed, not invalidated
Volatility context:
• Realized vol (30d): 37.7%
• Implied vol (ATM): 17.4%
• IV/RV: 0.46×
Volatility is priced at less than half of what BTC is actually delivering a condition that has never persisted indefinitely.
What this means for BTC price:
• Short term: price can coil and mean-revert inside the range
• Medium term: constraints decay, volatility expands
• Long term: price historically migrates back toward the power-law mean
Suppression is temporary.
The trend is structural.
That’s how Bitcoin has behaved for 15 years.
Graphs clearly show:
• Undervalued relative to its long-term trend (top)
• Constrained by short-term dealer hedging flows (bottom)
(forced selling above spot and forced buying below spot)
$BTC | Last cycle, mining costs per bitcoin marked the bearmarket bottom.
Back then it was ~$15k for the most efficient miners.
Now data shows it's ~$71k. Good spot for long term DCA. Coincides with 200 weekly MA.
Expecting a wick below 70k. Set stinky bids.
Good luck.
$BTC 🟠
Net Liquidity is on the rise.
The bulk of this bull run has happened while it's been in the negative.
But notice the previous parabolas?
Buckle up.