Berkeley Breathed

Optimist in general but losing hope, never go full elbows. Perma Bear on AECO.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@farman4x 64

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

I just experienced this recently. A messy, expensive and inefficient process that somebody has to force and fund, presumably with a hope of a gain. The professionals steering the process are known to have a perverse incentive to delay closing and are masters at that. CCAA or a cheaper version of appointing a monitoring trustee would make sense, hair cut everyone but have to keep the entire package of assets together. The regulator could force it, not sure they would yet, and considering the secured debt structure, only the Senior secured could possibly benefit. If he tries to take a subset of assets in exchange for debt owed, the crown would likely refuse and could step in and zero everyone then send the package to Sayers where anyone could bid on choice assets at auction, subject to cure costs (royalties and surface leases, not sure about SaskPower though?), but all proceeds paid would go to the crown to cover the abandoned wells/orphan well fund. Can also do a reverse vesting order which is what I ended up doing, have to take everything but get legacy debts expunged (including royalties/surface leases), only interests in land/GORRs remain.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@Elifbenad 28

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

I did, cuz owed a few bucks, but apparently it is not the plan. But this could morph into something that changes whatever the plan is, clearly the capital raise is gonna have to be put on hold and that has its own consequences. All speculation for me at this point from what little I know, but have been involved in this story for a few years now meeting fellow creditors, investors and management. Some very memorable moments from @shaletier7 constantly trolling them online to Ryan Mooney grilling the former CEO at the AGM.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

Yes they were properly notified, and given 120 days to comply back in June, the issues were expensive and the capital raise in part was intended to address them, obviously this notice is counter productive to the desired outcome. Yes TSX is gonna have a cow and stock could be halted, who knows. They were in a tough spot and while the regulator would normally extend if they made genuine efforts, whatever they did was obviously insufficient.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@ShaleTier7 Bad news for my registered security and GORR on Cuthbert. Suppose the Senior Lender will now scramble and take the assets, luckily I pre-date him.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

https://t.co/FeThGGPI9s $CVVY.TO

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@end3of6days9 Similar to Bob NewHart show as well,

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

If one is bond bullish then you presumably lean into the rate sensitives where interest expense is often the largest item on the income statement. ETFs are a safer way perhaps and avoid single name risk. When rates dropped significantly during Covid we saw massive outperformance of ZUT over ZWU (which had the covered call overlay). With the amount of debt issuance coming and traditional buyers exiting, I find it difficult to be bullish. We are in a period where a rate hike should lower the long term yields which is ideal for an economy where Capex spending is more correlated to 10 year yields.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

Is there any chance that the US is OK with the entire middle east ending in chaos as they pull out, and deprive China temporarily of stable sources of energy. It is painful to watch the rapid decline of US influence and significance on the global stage sink to new lows, mostly due to unforced errors, albeit deserved. There does not seem to be any good options left here?

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@JavierBlas https://t.co/XwrOellNqV

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

Check out Cdn gas, AECO or Station 2 benchmarks. We cant build egress or consume it fast enough due to policy constraints. Supply forecast to outstrip demand for years to come. Imagine the opportunities if regulatory and tax regimes that restrict capital were changed. Pro tip: dont waste too much time fantasizing that ever happening. No sizeable benefit from substantially lower natural gas prices than the American industry currently enjoys, especially for our dry gas producers.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@ImtiazMadmood Water vapour is a more potent (IR absorption) and abundant (9x more, 3800 ppm vs 420ppm) greenhouse gas.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@Energy_Tidbits @TCEnergy But AECO supply growth will be 70 % over that same time

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@RazorOil This up-down-up higher scenario seems like what we just saw for https://t.co/Yb4nneWuLE SAGD production. Based on you recent post on it and their lower May volumes.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@sohaibab9 Interesting any suggestions on how to play this?

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@HFI_Research Market must expect Iran to turn the other cheek and not retaliate in kind.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@trend_bullish @tradeoilstocks Think the signal equities reacted to was Saudi pricing their OSP shockingly low, which observers say could signal a price war for market share with UAE.

[Berkeley Breathed @gr8expect8ions]

@VanIsleInvestor Suspect future SPR releases in the US may be at a reduced clip but extended. Recently we have witnessed that upcoming elections are a big factor in executive branch decision making on SPR releases.