Joel Gratz

Meteorologist and outdoorsy guy. Founder of powder forecasts @findopensnow and hiking forecasts @findopensummit

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@sutherlandjamie @OpenSnow @sutherlandjamie please email more information to [email protected]. Knowing the locations where the forecast was inaccurate will be helpful. We read and respond to every message. Thanks!

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow We are working on a probability approach. The hardest part is showing probability by default - it it's buried, most people won't go looking for it.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow ...is that we do not just use the "6z GFS":-) We blend a LOT of model data. That doesn't mean that the forecast is perfect, but if a lot of models agree that 'something' will happen, it's worth paying attention to.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow ...note that the purple color shows a chance of mixed precipitation (snow/rain) and since it will have been warm leading up to the storm, a lot of snow might melt. One more thing...

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@WFG_DEN Ha! Thanks for checking. I overslept (dreaming of snow) and then wrote as fast as I could.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@ozskier @OpenSnow Seems odd. Will have to adjust the weather machine.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@Katonts Last few storms were definitely light, or more snow farther west. Just non-ideal wind direction / storm track. First half of February brought bigger totals, so not all bad news:-)

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@MarkR_ATX @findOpenSnow A ballpark estimate is storms move 30mph, CA -> CO = ~900 miles, so roughly 1-2 days travel time. But, that's assuming the storm moves in a straight line west-to-east. Most storms don't. Chances for snow in CO increase after 10th, but no specifics yet. Thanks for your support!

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

(2/2) For major fires like this #easttroublesomefire there are dedicated @NWS meteorologists that work with fire officials to give them the best weather information. My forecasts are just to provide perspective for those of us following on Twitter.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

(1/2) Wind on the east side of #easttroublesomefire near @RockyNPS will be strong through Saturday-day, then slowing Saturday-evening, and reversing with snow by Sunday morning. Best wishes to all involved as Saturday is going to be (and already is) a tough day.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

Weather update for #EastTroublesomeFire near Estes Park: Winds blow from the east Thu aftrn through Thu night (this is good). Then winds switch back to blow from west, strongly, from Fri aftrn to Sat aftrn (this is bad). Fri night - Sat aftrn is concerning. Then snow Sat night!

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@skifanski OMG, that picture. This fire. Ugh. Can I post the pic in the Colorado Daily Snow on Thu?

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

Weather forecast... Thu winds still gusty. Thu evening winds slow, change direction, temps cool, moisture increases through Fri. Then Sat winds will be strong with low moisture. Sat night & Sun = cold & snow likely. 🤞#EastTroublesomeFire

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@nplareau Thanks Neil, this is super helpful!

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

Weather update for #CalWoodFire and #LefthandCanyonFire: Thu ~6am winds shift to blow from east, Thu ~4pm winds get stronger from the east. Maybe light snow on Thu night. Solid chance for snow Sat night into Sunday.

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

Wind update: Tue AM: Gusty from W. Tue PM: Slow speeds, from E. Wed: Increasing speeds, from W. Thu: Slowing speeds, from E. Snow update: Thu night: light snow possible, colder. Sun: Possibly significant snow, very cold. This is mostly good news. #CalWoodFire #lefthandcanyonfire

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@ScottRi74507856 @Weather_West @nplareau Thank you!!

[Joel Gratz @gratzo]

@JosephGruber Sorry, didn't see that note. Will take it down.