Greed

Liquidity spamming operation

[Greed @greedfund]

@Zach202_ Partially settled combos trade all the time. That’s how exit liquidity works. It doesn’t mean “free lunch”, it means you’re pricing fewer legs.

[Greed @greedfund]

Update from the Kalshi team: engineers actively working on canceling the dirty combo trades, our losses here should be deleted 🖨️

[Greed @greedfund]

Yesterday we suffered $100k in trading losses due to Kalshi misreporting a settlement.

[Greed @greedfund]

Appreciate @Kalshi’s fully funded commitment to a fair exchange

[Greed @greedfund]

@d3bettor No, combos are settled on what Kalshi thinks happened not what actually happened. Those are usually the same thing. We had $100k on Kalshi thinking WMU won.

[Greed @greedfund]

Yesterday we suffered $100k in trading losses due to Kalshi misreporting a settlement.

[Greed @greedfund]

@wxmonke @Foster Yes, just seeing that now. The reversal is still pending but we're hopeful.

[Greed @greedfund]

@TheNotoriousSKi If we were selling for 0c we would have made no losses. If we sold for 100c there would be no buyers. With combos the number is somewhere in the middle which is what makes this kind of settlement malfunction especially damaging.

[Greed @greedfund]

As far as we can tell they've issued a blanket $50 credit for market participants, nothing coming close to making up for the loss. Our loss was especially bad since we assumed that finalized settlements were immutable and continued quoting worthless combos for a period. As Kalshi suggests in their email we shouldn't have to think about finalized settlements.

The fix involves treating all settlements as mutable regardless of stage, and codifying general paranoia wherever we read from authoritative data feeds.

[Greed @greedfund]

@macofweb3 @sahildotcom @Kalshi @Polymarket @RobinhoodApp Combo market makers are already not pricing the underlying legs, they’re pricing the copula, which is exactly the relationship between events. There is no world where sports-weather contract is filled by two distinct, domain independent market makers.

[Greed @greedfund]

Retail flow favors long-shot, lottery-style odds. On Aug. 27, Kalshi will add 0.01¢ ticks at combo rails, allowing a winning $1 bet to return $10,000. This should further reduce combo fee revenue per contract while boosting headline “volume.”

API change: https://t.co/aKChcC2Tbr

[Greed @greedfund]

Everyone sees combo volume on the rise, but less obvious is its impact on exchange economics. Over the last 30 days at Kalshi combos represented 40% of exchange volume but only 16% of fee revenue.

[Greed @greedfund]

On Kalshi, when a user builds a combo, they materialize a new market, send an RFQ to all makers, and synthesize the resulting quotes. With an open universe, is no way for them to cheaply know that adding a new leg into your pending combo will be priced well or at all. Poly US has the same architecture and limitations.

Open universe combo construction could work well in their Pro UI, assuming users could see the no. makers and spreads.

[Greed @greedfund]

@evan_semet @Kalshi we give our best customers 50bps back as a token of our appreciation