weathermonkey

trading barbs for bananas. top 100 trader on @Kalshi

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@mattkalish @ac418471 @Rishibets @probaaron so you're saying if joe schmoe puts in a limit order to buy 10 contracts at 50c, he's the house? scale matters.

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@prtllyfnctnl @probaaron any kalshi user is allowed to MM combos, there's no application process or special approval needed.

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

https://t.co/f0AvZxsv9H

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

TIL North Carolina passed legislation to charge a 6% tax on prediction market fee revenue, and formally recognize the exclusive authority of the CFTC to regulate prediction markets

Seems like a reasonable middle ground IMO

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Landtrader8375 leopold. he gets 2% regardless of what happens and 20% of any upside. amazing sortino ratio versus sbf's massive downside risk

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Landtrader8375 @EventWavesIO let's not forget, the utility of prison varies from individual to individual

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@mattkalish but forecasting fed rate *is* a real job

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@LeoAdberg tiny caveat: sometimes, RFQ quoters are unintentionally takers (kalshi has made several changes to prevent this), although this probably happens rarely enough to not matter. definitely agree this was a bizarre defense from Kalshi

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Landtrader8375 @LeoAdberg i did this out of pure desperation a couple of times while trading on my phone haha

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Bob69Barker420 @GaetenD What a throwback! $1M used to mean something on the leaderboard... now it's pedestrian

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@bernardbulletin @CitadelSportsLV only $16M volume on $1.1M profit? that seems to suggest they're taking directional bets rather than bonding 99c

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj if kalshi sports contracts get banned in my state, which is the best state for me to move to? i.e. which one will be most favorable to PM sports for the forseeable future?

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@JonnySharps i also ran out of money after full porting an arb; but the nice thing is that it freed up my attention to just enjoy the watching the game with friends.

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Bob69Barker420 skin commodity price markets on kalshi?

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@ryanchern nice visualization!

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@PlusEVAnalytics it's like putting your model in a jar so you can enjoy it later

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@kapursanat @buffalu__ really? i've been trading sports on kalshi since they introduced it, and have never heard of someone being banned for courtsiding. which part of the TOS prohibits it?

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

@Kalshi it would be cool if the Pro terminal offered semi-automation; things like "immediately buy any resting ask that appears below 40c"

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

sounds like maker fees are coming to kalshi RFQ quoters

https://t.co/rVjn67ZQOC

[weathermonkey @wxmonke]

Kalshi will forcefully liquidate michigan residents' open positions from trading against KT, but kalshi will make users whole from any losses incurred vs cost basis

https://t.co/eiNIYmf0Sn