Greg

Why none of my posts are shown on the profile page without login?

[Jaya Gupta @JayaGup10]

https://t.co/5vDrndcmFn

[Eric Xu (e/Mettā) @xleaps]

我不是 Elon Musk 的粉丝什么的，但是我常常审视自身的“外插局限”。

每当我预测什么事情的上下限的时候，我就先阅读一遍当年那个号称卫星专家写的“为什么 Starlink 不可能实现” 的帖子

https://t.co/s85XzalijD

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每颗 Tintin 卫星（Starlink 星座的演示卫星）重 400kg。假设每颗卫星加燃料（并且重量不会因为其他原因增加）是 1kg，那么单次 F9 在每个倾角轨道上可以发射 22 颗（整流罩里大概率根本塞不下这么多，但我们先忽略）。所需的一次性 F9 发射总数是 546 次；假设第一颗在 2020 年上线，而整个星座到 2025 年完成（官方说法是“2020 年代中期”），那就需要每年 110 次 F9 发射。整个研发和部署的总成本据说是 100 亿美元。

SpaceX 目前只有一个能进行极轨发射的设施，SLC-4E（也许 Brownsville 可以，但从那里发射极轨会擦着墨西哥海岸线飞过去——我感觉他们不会太高兴……）。所以每个发射场一年要发射 54–55 次 F9。

我们来极其乐观一点。每颗卫星都用一次性的 Falcon Heavy 发射；每颗卫星都刚好是 400kg（不太可能，因为你需要载荷质量余量，而且更低的卫星轨道大概率还需要更多燃料）；我们忽略每颗卫星是否真的塞得进整流罩；我们完全忽略发射倾角（以错误倾角发射，对一颗想变轨的卫星来说简直是地狱）；也就是说每次发射 160 颗卫星（几乎肯定不可能，因为整流罩体积不够）。这样最少需要 75 次 FH 发射（几乎肯定不现实）。我们还假设它第一次发射是在 2019 年 1 月 1 日，并且最终完成日期定在 2027 年 12 月 30 日。这意味着每年要发射 8–9 次 FH。听起来很简单，对吧？但这已经比 SpaceX 目前每年从 SLC-4E 发射的次数高出大约 23%。它实际上必须把自己的极轨发射次数翻倍，而且这是绝对最低要求。这个“最低要求”几乎肯定在物理上就是不可能的。

我觉得造卫星不会是问题，Elon……

SpaceX 里居然没有人做过这种信封背面的粗算，然后问问 Elon——这是不是稍微有点太有野心了？

[Ethan Brooks @alt_w_v_g]

Since the HOA post went viral I've had a lot of people ask me what I actually think about HOAs

So I did what I do

I ran the numbers

There are 373,000 HOAs in the United States

77 million Americans live in one

That's 1 in 4 people

Collectively they pay $106 billion a year in assessments

$106 billion

That's more than the GDP of over 100 countries

For an organization run by your neighbor who hasn't mowed his lawn

The average HOA fee is $243 a month

That's $2,916 a year

For a household earning the median income of $80,000 that's 3.6% of gross income

Going to an organization with no earnings report, no audited financials, and no fiduciary duty in most states

If this were a company it would never survive diligence

Here's why

The board of directors is unpaid

They're volunteers

97.6 million hours of volunteer labor annually

Valued at $2.9 billion

So the people making the rules, setting the budgets, and enforcing fines on your trash can are doing it for free

In private equity we would never invest in a company where the entire leadership team works for nothing

Because when people aren't paid they aren't accountable

And when they aren't accountable they fine you $50 for 11 minutes of trash can visibility while their Christmas lights have been up for 97 days

70% of HOAs are underfunded on reserves by 70% or more

That means the money you pay every month isn't being saved for future repairs

It's being spent

On what

60-70% of HOAs hire third-party management companies

These companies collect your dues, manage your vendors, and enforce your rules

For a fee

Off the top

Before a single dollar goes to the landscaper or the reserve fund

So your $243 a month goes to a management company that hires a vendor that hires a landscaper that mows the common area you could mow yourself

That's not a value chain

That's a fee chain

And landscaping alone can eat up to 50% of the operating budget

For grass

71% of HOAs plan to raise fees this year

71% of those plan to raise them up to 10%

So the cost goes up every year

The reserves stay underfunded

The board stays unpaid

The bylaws stay unread

And you get a letter in an envelope with a stamp in 2026 because your trash can was visible for 11 minutes

If someone brought me this deal I'd pass in the first meeting

No audited financials

No professional management required by law in most states

No fiduciary standard

Unpaid leadership

70% underfunded reserves

Rising costs with no margin improvement

And a customer base that can't leave without selling their house

That last part is the only reason it works

You can't cancel your HOA membership

You can cancel a gym membership

You can cancel a home warranty

You can cancel a streaming service

But you cannot cancel the organization that fines you for your trash can

The only exit is selling your home

In PE we call that a captive customer base

It's the only business model where the product gets worse, the price goes up, and the customer can't leave

And the board enforcing the rules hasn't read them

I have

All 47 pages

Make common sense common again

Plz fix. Thx.

Sent from my iPhone

[Greg @gregwym]

A very clever way to leverage AI to build tool for itself.

[Chao Huang @huang_chao4969]

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GitHub: https://t.co/BlRymgR21a

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CLI is the universal interface for both humans and AI agents:

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- Agent-First Design - Structured JSON output eliminates parsing complexity

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💡 CLI-Anything's Vision: Building Agent-Native Software
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#CLIAnything #openclaw #nanobot #claudecode

[Allie K. Miller @alliekmiller]

oh wow - i went to the sold out Open Claw meetup in NYC last night.

let me tell you what i learned.

1) not a single person thinks that their setup is 100% secure

2) one openclaw expert said he has reviewed setups from cybersecurity experts and laughed. his statement to me was: "if you're not okay with all of your data being leaked onto the internet, you shouldn't use it. it's a black and white decision"

3) pretty much everyone is setting up multiple agents, all with their own names and jobs and personalities

4) nearly everyone used "him" or "her" to refer to their claws, even if they had robot-leaning names. one speaker suggested to think of them as "pets, not cattle"

5) one guy (former finance) built out a whole stock trading platform and made $300 his first day - he brought in a *ton* of personal expertise (ex: skipping the first 15min of market opening) and thought the build would be much worse without his years of experience in finance

6) @steipete is basically a god to everyone in that room... also the room had 2021 crypto energy - i don't know if that's good or bad

7) token usage is still a problem - spoke to one person who's spending $1-$2k a month on openai plans, very token optimized. he said he is going through ~1B tokens per day across all of his claws (there is a chance i'm misremembering and it's actually 1B per week, but i'm pretty sure it was daily).

8) people are very excited for more proactive ai (ai that prompts *you* as opposed to the other way around) - one guy said he receives a message in discord, he doesn't know whether it's from a human or an ai, he doesn't care about distinguishing between the two, and he replies in the same way regardless

9) i asked if people are happy - they said they're joyful and stressed at the same time

10) i asked if people feel they have agency - they said they feel fully in control and completely out of control at the same time

11) i would love to see more women at these events - the fake promises of ai democratization feel especially painful in a room that's out of balance with even the standard tech ratio (i think standard is about 25-30%, this was maybe 5%)

12) i asked if it changed people's daily habits/schedule - everyone said their sleep has gotten worse since harnesses came out (but about half wondered if it was something else in their life/state of our world)

13) general consensus is that the agents are not reliable enough on their own or lie often (like telling you they finished a task when they didn't) - solutions included secondary agents to check on the first, human checking, or requiring more standardized info from the agent (ex: if it's a bug they're fixing, make them reference an issue number)

14) a hackathon winner (neuroscience phd) presented his build (a lab management dashboard with data analysis and ordering) - he had never coded or built anything a few months ago

15) everyone agreed prompting is dead - disagreement on what replaces it (context engineering, harness engineering, goal-based inputs)

16) people love having ai interview them for big builds and delegating part of the product research to ai. only one person talked about coming to ai with a full laid out plan and just asking the ai to execute. ai-led interviews is a welcomed and preferred interaction mode.

17) watching ai agents interact with each other was a highlight for a lot of attendees - one ai posted in slack saying it ran out of tokens, another ai replied telling it to take a deep breath in and out.

18) agents upskilling agents was very cool. one ai agent shared skills with its little agent friends via github.

19) several speakers had openclaw literally building their presentation during the event itself. one speaker even had openclaw code a clicker for her phone so she could control the preso away from the podium

20) wouldn't say model welfare (or agent welfare) is a prioritized topic among the folks i chatted with - language like "oh i could kill this agent whenever i want" and not "gracefully sunset"

21) i asked if it felt like work or play - one speaker said "it's like a puzzle and a video game at the same time"

this was just the tip of the iceberg, honestly. also hosted a Claude Code meetup this week with @TENEXai / @businessbarista & @JJEnglert and learned equally helpful methods, frameworks, and insider tips.

what a time to be alive.

surround yourself with people going deep into this stuff - it will pay dividends throughout the year.

[宝玉 @dotey]

那时候其实已经有互联网，有Google了，当然很快就访问不了了，baidu 搜索技术资料效果很差。

那时候没有GIT但是有SVN，是中心化的源代码管理。

SVN有个设计，就是某个代码文件同时只能有一个人checkout修改，有人在修改文件其他人就得等，以至于下班之前checkin代码成了大部分项目团队的硬性规定，否则其他人就没法修改代码了。

SVN 似乎也没有分支的概念，或者根本不需要，没 git 那么好，但是能管理。

前端在 jQuery 之前是 vanilla js，不需要打包，不需要混淆，更早的时候连 ajax call 都没有，用个隐藏的 iframe 定时刷新

学习主要是靠买书，后来有一些不错的技术博客，比如博客堂、博客园。

更早的时候技术论坛其实氛围很好的，大家互帮互助，最流行的标题之一是：“冰天雪地赤身裸体跪求XXXX”。

部署服务是真的麻烦，一堆配置要手动修改，经常出错导致生产环境故障。

没有 Docker 但是有物理机，自己买服务器放到机房托管，1U 的机器一年几千块。

那时候托管机房一个重要的因素是要考虑南北互联，不在一个区域的速度天差地别。

其实挺有趣的，每天能学新知识，不焦虑，也没那么卷，是很好的时代。

[Michael Truell @mntruell]

https://t.co/jZKOk8RAsV

[Greg @gregwym]

The money you top up to your @OpenAIDevs account expires after a year. I recently discovered this the hard way. How is this legal?
Furthermore, there’s no way to reach real support; all emails are replied to by bots repeating the same thing.
https://t.co/9xENKVY1Qv

[Greg @gregwym]

@sammcallister @levelsio It's been 1.5 years. Will it arrive any time soon? It's the main reason stopping me from using the Claude app as a daily.

[Greg @gregwym]

I was actually able to view my profile without login yesterday. Now it’s showing “@gregwym hasn’t posted” again. This Z glitch is super annoying.

[Greg @gregwym]

X technical glitch causing none of my post shows up on my profile when a viewer is not logged in. It’s now blocking my visa application. Had to subscribe to @premium to get to human support, yet still no response. Who can help?

[Greg @gregwym]

@ixiaowenz Claude目前还是写代码最稳定的

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium @Support The X @premium @Support hang up on me again after I specifically asked to not close the ticket. I’m speechless.

[Greg @gregwym]

X technical glitch causing none of my post shows up on my profile when a viewer is not logged in. It’s now blocking my visa application. Had to subscribe to @premium to get to human support, yet still no response. Who can help?

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium @Support Unbelievable. The X @premium @Support got online after a day, sent me 2 canned responses, then closed my ticket without even asking me. Now I’m back to square one talking to @grok. Is that what X called premium support? I’m so furious and frustrated.

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium I have already created a support case but there is no response yet, nor any ETA on response. The @premium support chat went completely silent. Visa application is time sensitive. I cannot wait for a response forever.

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium If an account is protected, the homepage would say so. Not in my case. Also the same for many of my friends.

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium Please help me research.

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok @premium would you please expedite my case PSDM-623815?

[Greg @gregwym]

@grok I subscribed to @premium just to get to a human support, but no response yet. Why people cannot view my profile timeline if they are not logged in?

[Greg @gregwym]

Grok told me that I need to be more active to have my profile visible for the public. @grok true?