Gresham Index

A Bitcoin cycle risk metric. One number to follow through the everyday crypto noise.

Check our DCA strategies and try our DCA simulator at website.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

1/ You don't need more opinions on where Bitcoin is in its cycle. You need one number. Meet the Gresham Index.

Twelve years, colored by what the Index read at the time. Green at the bottoms, red at the tops. 🧵

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

Well, lets say you had $30,000 to invest. In first case you bought 1 BTC, in second 0,5 BTC.

Lets consider in 10 years bitcoin will be at $1,000,000. For you it means you will have 500k or 1 milion dollars. If that doesnt matter its up to you :)

The average entry price matters. But trying to catch bottom never works. What works is lowering entry price using risk-guided DCA. At least it works for us.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

Bitcoin is up 26% in eight days and the Gresham Index has gone from 0.166 to 0.283. The fastest 8-day rise in more than five years.

At the current pace it will cross up through 0.30 (green into yellow zone) within a day or two.

People are asking whether the bottom is in. We won't answer that. But here's what the record says about this specific event.

The index has crossed up to yellow zone nine times since 2011, after spending at least a month below it.

A year later, seven of the eight completed cases were higher. Median: +132%.

The exception was June 2014. It crossed at $662, held for seven days, fell back, and was 66% lower a year later.

Here's the part that matters: we already crossed this year.

On 2 May 2026 the index went above 0.30 and stayed there 29 days, peaking at 0.348. Then it collapsed to 0.118 by July as price fell to $58,500. So today isn't a fresh crossing off a long base, it's a second attempt after one that didn't hold.

We've been in bottom green zones for almost 7 months (great time to accumulate using smart DCA strategies) so its hard to say if we will get back there again this cycle. But those who used accumulation period dont care :)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@joao_wedson @Alphractal This could be solved by DCA :) even better to use some risk-guided strategies.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@JA_Maartun Greed has shown up at a lot of different prices on that chart. Same word, very different situations. It is measuring the room, not the market.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@BitQua Missing the exact bottom by a few weeks costs almost nothing. Shorting it costs a lot. Big gap between those two mistakes.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@FrankAFetter 17% quantile means cheap by history. It does not mean it cannot get cheaper. That gap is where the patience goes.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

Today’s reading.

In last week the index jumped by from 0,17 to 0,28. There is big chance we will see change to higger risk band this week.

BTC closed $78,895 on 2026-08-24

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@WalkerAmerica And even more in bottom zones :) and yes, Bitcoin is still cheap to buy.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@piovincenzo_ All of this is short-term noise for general people. Zoom out, we are still in bottom zone :)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

New article covers our second research paper.

TL;DR: On average our smart DCA strategies accumulated 2x more BTC than plain DCA.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

https://t.co/WTKGCL1tdX

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@TheRealPlanC 🧐

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@TylerSCrypto One word, three cycles, still working :)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@cryptomanran The reason to own it and the question of what to do this month are different things. Yours is a good answer to the first one. The second one is where people still get in trouble.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@ColinTCrypto Whatever this poll says tomorrow, nobody in it knows. Bottoms only become obvious later. Ours has been in the green zone on the exact bottom day three times, 2015, 2018 and 2022, and every one of those was clear about a year afterwards, not that week :)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

You can now simulate what would be your average Bitcoin entry price.

Plain DCA vs. our risk-guided DCA strategy.

When did you started investing? Starting from bottom 2022 would give you 28 % lower entry price with our strategy.

Link here: https://t.co/l85tdAjwrU

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@TheBTCTherapist 🤔

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@Bitcoin Keep stacking friends, Bitcoin is still in strong accumulation zone ;-)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@btcanalytica @TheBTCKnight Pretty impresive, good job.

In my view I would not reccomend anybody to short. My goal was to create strategy where you can sleep without stress and I would not be calm doing this
:D :)

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@FootSubber @btcanalytica It tells you how people feel today, not whether today is good time to buy. The sentiment is not perfect indicator.

On first look the chart looks good, but there are plenty of points where the index failed.

[Gresham Index @greshamindex]

@w_s_bitcoin DCA is way to go.
Even better if you used risk-guided DCA :)