Find10bagger

[Find10bagger @grig1543]

https://t.co/h10WZxkZ8i - best long form summaries of interesting non fiction books

[Peter Morley @wienglischmann]

Now live: https://t.co/e84g4nrz6K

[WOLF Terminal @WOLF_Terminal]

🚨 BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK ON THE AI BUBBLE DEBATE:

"The demand for compute is growing faster than supply. I don't see anything but a bubble. I see greater shortages."

What the shortages look like:

"Shortages of skilled trade, shortages of power and energy, shortages of chips, shortages of memory. The whole supply chain from the base of people working up until the most advanced computer chip."

His actual concern:

"I hear a lot of people fearful about a bubble. I'm more fearful that we're not gonna be able to execute and fulfill the opportunity to make sure that America is the winner in this AI race."

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BANK OF AMERICA STILL EXPECTS AN OCTOBER FED RATE HIKE

Bank of America maintains its forecast for a Fed rate hike on October 28, despite markets pricing just a 20% probability.

BofA warns that persistent inflation and strong economic activity could push core PCE inflation to 3.4% by year-end.

The key takeaway: BofA believes inflation risks justify further tightening, even as investors increasingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. HOUSING MARKET CONFIDENCE HITS 14-YEAR LOW

U.S. homebuilder sentiment fell to 29 in October, its lowest since June 2012, as mortgage rates climbed above 7%.

A record-high 43% of builders cut prices, with average discounts of 6%, while nearly two-thirds offered sales incentives.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WHITE HOUSE WARNS U.S. INFLATION NEEDS MORE WORK

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says inflation is showing renewed pressure after several months of improvement.

September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, while core inflation increased 0.3%.

Hassett warned the acceleration could be temporary or signal a break from the disinflation trend.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

France's 10-year bond yields are surging to new post-2012 highs relative to German 10-year yields.

[MastersInvest.com @mastersinvest]

2026 Reading .. so far

Bold = Favorites

[Barchart @Barchart]

AI Bubble hits 2nd largest concentration level in history, only behind the railroad mania of the 1880s 🚨 🚨

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 $SPX saw the largest put volume day (in $ notional) in history last Friday 🚨

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Trafigura Chief Economist Rahim: MidEast crude flows down 5m-7m b/d v. pre-war level

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Trafigura Chief Economist Rahim: MidEast oil products flows down 4m b/d v. pre-war level

[Henrikh @henrikhinai]

Hedge fund manager Dan Niles says AI stocks "probably go down 30 to 50 percent" early next year - with OpenAI and Anthropic "half" of the hyperscaler backlog

"I hear things like, semiconductors might not be cyclical anymore

And so I start to laugh"

He still likes the technology - and told Master Investor what could break the AI trade:

> Most Overbought Since 2000 (12:38):
- Asked if semis are "the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995, before they had horrific corrections," he says: "Absolutely." A 15-20% drop along with the semiconductor index "wouldn't surprise me at all."

> The 30-50% Drop (25:09):
- Agentic AI's growth ramp should "decelerate massively" early next year - then "they probably go down 30 to 50 percent." The Magnificent 7 fell 46% on average in 2022, right after the COVID buildout.

> Half The Backlog (27:20):
- OpenAI and Anthropic are "half of the backlog at the hyperscalers." He thinks OpenAI "doesn't have the cash flow to fund their ambitions" - and if one of the two struggles, "you're going to have a huge problem."

> The IPO Squeeze (31:48):
- OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic are heading to market at "trillion dollar, probably plus valuations." "That money's got to come out of some other names."

The AI money debate, fresh every single day

[Fireside Tapes @firesidetapes]

Gavin Baker explains the lessons he learned from Fidelity’s legends, from “panic early or double down late” to “numbers and excuses”

“I deeply admire my friend Antonio Gracias, who runs Valor Equity Partners. I think he’s done unique things and has unique lens that he sees the world through."

"There are great portfolio managers at Fidelity, a woman named Jennifer Uhrig, who she runs a venture fund now. But she at one point, she ran $70 billion, great numbers, to my knowledge, has run more money than any woman in history. And just, you know, she had so many great, you know, pieces of wisdom that have stuck with me. You either have to panic early or double down late and there’s anything in between you get killed and you have to know which one you are and be disciplined about it.”

“My friend, Steve Wymer, who runs a $200 billion fund with absolutely incredible numbers at Fidelity. You know, he really taught me the value of not only hard work, but doing the work yourself. And also just a phrase that, you know, Wymer always had was, there’s only two things in investing. There are numbers and there are excuses. And if you don’t have the first, nobody gives a shit about the second.”

“And then the aforementioned Will Danoff. You know, Will is incredible, because Will asks sometimes what seem like very basic questions but they’re very profound and being asked them, I think maybe sometimes forces the companies to think differently. And he also has this incredible ability to, I would call it play in the present and be completely dispassionate. And I’m not a golfer playing the present just means you can’t let your last bad shot, you know, hurt you, but investing is the same thing. You got to play in the present, you know, whether you’re on a string of hits or a string of misses.”

“And, you know, so I feel like I’ve learned something from, you know, a lot of people. I mean, I’ve certainly, you know, learned a lot from some of your former partners at Benchmark. Yeah, I think it has taken a village to make me the investor that I am.”

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

7 of 11 sectors green last week and 10 of 11 outperformed the S&P 500

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 WOW! Look at the OCEAN of Flavio Bolsonaro's supports gathering in massive droves one week before the election against socialist Lula

Supporters packed shoulder to shoulder, and the city had to shut down one of its main roads!

"They said they had ended Bolsonarism. They forgot that Jair Bolsonaro left millions and MILLIONS of seeds that have already blossomed!" 🇧🇷

Then he flew straight to Salvador for another rally. He's working hard through the finish!

President Trump and Marco Rubio are on the verge of a GREAT ally in Brazil.

It will be amazing news for nationalism and HORRIBLE news for the once-was-USAID-funded socialists 🔥

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

how buffett found aapl

“This time, Buffett asked Combs to identify a stock in the S&P 500 that met three criteria. The first: a reasonably cheap price/earnings multiple of no more than 15, based on the next 12 months’ projected earnings. The stock also had to be one the managers were at least 90% sure would enjoy higher earnings over the next five years. And they had to be at least 50% confident that the company’s earnings would grow by at least 7% annually for five years or longer.

Combs’s research pointed to Apple, the same stock Weschler had already purchased.”

—

Buffett asked about the customer-retention rate of iPhone users. When he learned it was approximately 95%, he really became intrigued. By then, Buffett’s grandchildren had become “addicted” to their iPhones, Munger said in the interview. Buffett also was influenced by a story of a friend, Sandy Gottesman, who had been bereft after misplacing his iPhone.

“Warren could see how dominant the products were,” Munger said in the interview. Munger died last year.

At that point, Buffett still used a flip phone, as did Munger. Buffett only converted several years later, though he still doesn’t spend a lot of time on his iPhone, Munger said. 

https://t.co/u4EEg5X63R

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Hartnett: The Sell Signal Is Over, Now Watch Chip Prices https://t.co/yFhIieYmeg

[Masa’s Son @masayoshisson]

AI predictions for next 6-9 months

-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

Dominos…

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

Norman Asbjornson had a heck of a run at $AAON with the stock >500x during his tenure.

Industrial air conditioning isn’t the first place many would look for a compounder.

But how a company is run is often more important than the industry it is in.