Bitcoiners pushing to "force" BTC for spending today are missing the historical progression and could actually end up subsidizing fiat.
Gresham's Law, then Thiers Law... in that order
Bitcoin built its value because people HODLed it, not in spite of it. Scarcity + voluntary holding = the moat.
Everything else (institutional ETFs, nation-state buys) is downstream of that.
The HODLers created the demand signal that made everything else possible. If velocity magically spiked tomorrow without more scarcity-driven conviction, you'd just get more volatility and weaker hands.
This is Gresham's Law in effect, but... when we've reached the tipping point, Theirs Law kicks in, and then BTC will reach the Medium of Exchange (MoE) stage.
What are the tipping points?
- Demand side behavior changes
This is something @parkeralewis explained deeply; as someone building merchant payments, we need the merchants to demand BTC to hold it, not just to convert back to fiat.
- Fiat credibility collapse
either through rapid inflation, capital controls become ineffective, or censorship
- Network and Adoption
Significant portion of global trade settles in BTC without fiat intermediaries. People think in and quote prices in sats rather than converting fiat.
Forcing BTC MoE before these risks "subsidizes the fiat network effects." How?
Every time you spend Bitcoin today (pre-shift), the typical flow is:
Sell BTC → receive fiat → spend fiat.
You're injecting fresh demand and liquidity into the fiat system. Banks, payment processors, governments, and the entire dollar network get more transaction volume, more fees, more data, and more reinforcement of their network effects.
You're literally subsidizing the enemy.
HODLing, by contrast, starves fiat of capital. It keeps supply locked, strengthens the scarcity moat, and forces the fiat system to compete on merit (which it can't).
Once the shift happens, the same spending action strengthens Bitcoin's network, because the money flowing is now the good money, and fiat is the one being rejected.
So...
HODL the scarce asset, spend the inflating one, and let the asymmetry work for you.
Forcing velocity prematurely just props up the system we're replacing.
The question is... Are we closer to the Thiers’ Law flip than most realize?
A national vote counting disgrace.
20 hours after the polls closed, California still can't tell voters who won.
That's not democracy. That's dysfunction.
California is going to take 37 days to count 9 million mail in ballots with 0 of the voters showing ID.
This is totally fine with John Thune.
Think about that.
So basically California counts less than 50% of the vote on election night, stops counting while they “wait” for the “late mail in ballots” to arrive, and then just basically says “we’ll let you know in 7-14 business days who won”?
Is that how they do elections? Am I really getting that right?
The fact that we just *ACCEPT* the total farce that is California's election results process is troubling.
How can California voters be OK with waiting weeks to see who won their elections when other states, like Florida for example (two time zones) can have the votes cast and counted in the same night?
We as a country should not accept this... But to Cali voters...
When are you going to demand that these things change?
Wokeness is the most successful rebranding of evil in human history
It takes racism, division, and hatred, wraps them in the language of compassion and justice, and calls it moral progress
It made people cheer for the destruction of their own societies while feeling morally superior for doing it
Last night, I watched one single election batch of nearly 25,000 votes get distributed to every single LA Mayoral candidate except for Spencer Pratt.
Remeber Wisconsin?
“You’re saying every last vote broke for Biden? — there was not a Trump vote in there— that doesn’t look right— even the bluest city you’re gonna have someone voting for the other party.”
https://t.co/Yh5WUMznmf
Warum sind wir noch hier?
Die Welt lacht über Bitcoin.
Die Opportunitätskosten, Bitcoin zu halten, waren in den letzten 12 Monaten immens.
Tech-Aktien gingen durch die Decke.
Alles, was mit KI oder Space zu tun hat, erreicht astronomische Höhen.
Und Bitcoin?
Bitcoin stagniert, fällt und kennt keinen Boden.
Ist ein Ende in Sicht?
Nein.
Ein Ende sieht man meist nur im Rückspiegel.
In den nächsten Monaten gehen die drei größten Investmentgeschichten aller Zeiten an die Börse: SpaceX, OpenAI und Anthropic.
Ca. 300 Mrd. USD an frischem Kapital werden dafür benötigt.
Das entspricht der Kaufkraft von 4,5 Mio. Bitcoin.
Wird ein Teil von diesem Kapital aus Bitcoin abfließen? Ist der Prozess schon im Gange?
Wahrscheinlich schon. Wie viel, weiß keiner.
Fakt ist, dass eine Person, die agnostisch nach Rendite sucht, diese zurzeit eher in KI als in Bitcoin vermutet.
Das trifft sowohl auf Privatpersonen als auch auf institutionelle Investoren zu.
Ich frage also noch einmal: Warum sind wir noch hier?
Für Menschen, die Bitcoin eindimensional als Renditeobjekt betrachten, stellt sich diese Frage nicht mehr.
Sie sind bereits ausgestiegen.
Die Leute, die Bitcoin jetzt noch halten, bewegt etwas anderes.
Sie bewegt, dass die gesamte Welt bis zum Hals in Schulden steckt.
Sie bewegt, dass Freiheit Stück für Stück gegen Kontrolle eingetauscht wird.
Sie bewegt, dass persönliche Souveränität weiter in den Hintergrund gerät.
Sie bewegt, dass gespeicherte Lebenszeit zu wertvoll ist, um sie in die Hände eines Dritten zu legen.
Sie bewegt, dass Verwässerung Teil eines jeden Finanzsystems ist.
Kurz:
Sie bewegt genau das, was im Verlauf der Geschichte immer wieder der Fluch des souveränen Individuums war:
Die Einschränkung der persönlichen Souveränität und die Verwässerung der gespeicherten Lebenszeit.
Ist SpaceX eine Antwort auf diese Themen?
Sind OpenAI oder Anthropic eine Antwort auf diese Themen?
Nein.
Unter allen Vermögenswerten gibt es nur eine Antwort auf diese Fragen.
Bitcoin in Eigenverwahrung.
Die Rahmenbedingungen unter denen sich die Welt entwickelt zeigen alle auf Bitcoin.
Aber die Welt ist momentan abgelenkt durch den euphorischen Rausch von KI.
In Zeiten der Euphorie sucht niemand nach Souveränität.
In Zeiten der Euphorie will jeder einfach dabei sein. Koste es, was es wolle.
Solche Euphorie ist wie Ebbe und Flut.
Sie kommt und geht auch wieder.
Und wenn sie geht, bleiben nur die Dinge übrig, die nicht von Aufmerksamkeit abhängig sind.
Die Probleme, die Bitcoin löst, verschwinden nicht durch KI.
Sie verschwinden nicht durch Raketen.
Sie verschwinden nicht durch höhere Aktienkurse.
Die Schulden bleiben. (nehmen zu)
Die Verwässerung bleibt. (nimmt zu)
Der Bedarf nach Souveränität bleibt.
Darum sind wir noch hier.
Wir suchen nicht das attraktivste Investment der aktuellen Stunde.
Wir halten die Antwort auf Probleme in unser Hand, die genauso alt sind wie die Zivilisation selbst.
Mit der Zeit wird die Welt sie wiederentdecken.
Und im Rückspiegel wird alles offensichtlich wirken.
Don’t get mad at the slow California vote count.
Remember, they have to count all the Republican votes first… so they can figure out exactly how many Democrat votes they need to “find.”
Imagine you're in 1995 and someone shows you the internet. Early websites, dial-up, the whole nine yards.
You wait four minutes for a JPEG to load.
Halfway through loading, it disconnects.
You think "this is stupid, this will never work, I'm going back to the Yellow Pages."
That person lost the century.
Bitcoin's short-term price is set by the most emotional participants in the most leveraged 24/7 market in human history.
Futures traders, retail tourists, ETF arbitrageurs, guys who got tipped off on Reddit... these are the people setting the price on any given Tuesday. They are not the story.
The story is that banks are building custody infrastructure.
Governments are discussing strategic reserves in official policy documents.
Accounting standards got reformed.
Advisors can now put Bitcoin in client portfolios through their existing platforms without calling their compliance department and causing a medical event.
The people who called the internet dead in 1996 were technically correct about AOL's stock price and completely wrong about everything that mattered.
The marginal seller is loud and the structural integrators are quiet.
History belongs to the quiet ones.
NBC Reporting that Mayor Karen Bass is preparing for a party
Karen Bass says even if Spencer takes the lead, she says when all the votes are counted she’ll be victorious
Mail in ballots will continue being counted FOR A FULL WEEK after Election Day
Transition: Democrats will keep counting as many fake mail in ballots as they need until they win
This is exactly why you can’t trust California elections
- Unlimited mail in ballots
- Homes receive WAY more ballots than people who live there
- Ballot drop boxes everywhere
Ohh and let’s not forget, Gavin Newsom made checking ID illegal when voting
Get this, Counties must certify final results by July 2, 2026. This is 30 days after Election Day
STEVE WON!!! 🎉🥂👏
CA Gov results are 100% IN ‼️
Steve Hilton: 27.8%
Becerra: 25.4%
Steyer: 19.6%
Bianco: 11.3%
Lt. Gov is 100% IN:
Gloria: 19.9%
Fiona Ma: 19.1%
LA Mayor at 63% in:
Bass: 35%
Pratt: 30%
Naman: 22%
California just sent a message. Loud and clear. 🔥
'I feel that the police are now so racist towards anyone white or English I would never dare speak to them to report crime'
'I do not trust them'
THIS is what two-tier policing has done.
Trust in the police has been totally DESTROYED!
Heartbreaking.