hagVtr

[hagVtr @hagvtr]

»Alle auf das Recht anderer Menschen bezogene Handlungen, deren Maxime sich nicht mit der Publizität verträgt, sind unrecht«.

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Very interesting Caixin article on China's K-shaped property market, with a sliver of premium properties in top-tier cities seeming to recover strongly while everything else continues to flounder. As always, the property market is a mirror of the economy.
https://t.co/sHJyoTH2Bu

[Captain Highliner 🇨🇦 @MrSteveOMalley]

@thewarzonewire Moron airbase?! So the base is named after President Trump?

[IMF @IMFNews]

Sovereign wealth funds have become some of the most powerful players in global finance, with $16 trillion in assets. Law should guide their operations and governance to ensure the institutions support financial stability. See our blog. https://t.co/sK6yiwPOAT

[EU_Eurostat @EU_Eurostat]

In 2025, 11.0% of young people in the EU aged 15 to 29 were neither in employment nor in education or training.

Highest shares in:
🇷🇴 Romania (19.2% of young people)
🇧🇬 Bulgaria (13.8%)

Lowest in:
🇳🇱 Netherlands (5.3%)
🇸🇪 Sweden (5.9%)

Read more 👉https://t.co/7bzITvAKwA

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

Greg Ip notes: #China's enormous trade surplus is fundamentally a domestic-demand/saving problem, but b/c #China has shown little willingness to correct that imbalance voluntarily, the rest of the world may need coordinated trade and FX pressure to force the adjustment - @wsj

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Quote from Budanov: ‘As of now, Russia does not want to stop the war along the line [of contact – ed.], it categorically does not want to. At the moment, the talks are mostly limited to prisoner exchanges’…

Budanov noted that Ukraine cannot stop the war at present and that the fighting will continue through the winter. ‘We will not stop the war now, not because we do not want to, but simply because it is unrealistic,’ he said.

Asked whether Ukraine would be fighting in winter, Budanov replied: ‘Unfortunately, I'm afraid so!’”
https://t.co/r8hT4fqV7u

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Greg Ip

"a currency accord, with or without China’s cooperation, could be the cleanest, least distorting and most effective solution [to China's rising trade surplus/ unbalanced growth model]"

https://t.co/zKm2Pc0yRZ

[Modern War Institute Editor @MWI_editor]

The war in Ukraine makes clear that the proliferation of sensors and condensed kill chains all but eliminate opportunities for maneuver. We can either accept the inevitablity of positional warfare or creatively restore these opportunities. https://t.co/2s5aTGoNaG

[Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel]

Social Media is Shifting the Values in Our Societies

A new paper argues that social media is driving an increase in people’s achievement and conformity orientation

A difference-in-differences analysis found that countries with higher SM adoption compared to their culturally similar country show an increase in achievement and conformity orientation. Next, authors manipulated SM use and established a causal link between SM use and the activation of achievement and conformity values in Facebook users.

https://t.co/Rn0COMMLcd

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

The tariff math is the easy part: prices rise.⁣
⁣
The bigger cost is trust. Michigan's auto industry works because Canadian parts makers built their future around Detroit. Threaten that relationship long enough, and they start building their next factory near a port instead, ready to sell to Europe.⁣
⁣
That's not a price shock. That's a permanent loss of preeminence.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

From Hennadii Khirhii, the CEO of Ukr Armo Tech:
"In this context, the popular 'drones or artillery' debate is flawed in its very premise. Drones have undoubtedly become one of the defining instruments of modern warfare. Before their widespread use, militaries had never possessed such an extensive body of reconnaissance data combined with the ability to adjust fire immediately and assess the outcomes of military decisions. Drones have also completely transformed the rules governing the precision destruction of individual targets.

Yet artillery continues to provide the scale and tempo of fire, particularly when engaging grouped targets and concentration areas simultaneously. Once fired, an artillery shell does not depend on a communications link and cannot be neutralized by electronic warfare in the way a drone can.

It is therefore the combination of these capabilities that produces a qualitatively new result. Drones significantly enhance artillery in terms of accuracy and speed. They make it possible to strike command posts, logistics, and supply lines in operational depth much more effectively. Artillery, in turn, converts reconnaissance data into scalable firepower. So, to use a metaphor: unmanned systems are the nervous system, but artillery is still the backbone."
https://t.co/dZZ0Gr3Yvy

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

The scarier story isn't a president firing a commissioner over bad jobs numbers. It's what happened last week, quietly, with no front-page coverage: our statistical agency actually put out a number shaped to please the president.⁣
⁣
That's not a bad data point. That's the loss of a shared source of truth. https://t.co/LyjI42W7lt

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

Forget about an AI utopia of effortless abundance. Get ready for the messy, unintended consequences foreseen by science fiction’s arch-realist, @nealstephenson.

[André Kühnlenz @KeineWunder]

(@FuW_News - mit Abo) Eine stille Gefahr für Anleihenmärkte und Geldpolitik in Europa

Zwei neue Studien zeigen, wie Hedge Funds den Repo-Markt im Euroraum austrocknen. Die Folgen können auch die Schweiz treffen... https://t.co/bClByQu2uO

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

For Americans this is a trade war. For Canadians it's existential. Joking about making them the 51st state and saying their consent doesn't matter tends to do that. Good politicians make it easy for the other side to say yes. This made it impossible.

[Sam Kessler @skesslr]

NEW: An Abu Dhabi investment group tied to the U.A.E.'s intelligence chief will be the largest shareholder in World Liberty Financial's new U.S. bank.

w/ @rebeccaballhaus @AABerwick

https://t.co/1hi4hAihnm

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

Russia’s wartime “recovery” is a real decline: 0.6% nominal GDP growth in H1, vacancies down 18%, M1 shrinking, NWF at $46 billion.
Another mobilization might juice demand for a few months. Then it becomes faster stagflation.
@ntrickett16 @RiddleRussia
https://t.co/tteyVoiMpM

[Seth Frantzman @sfrantzman]

I didn’t know the Afghanistan numbers were that low

So in fact the Soviet government, even when it was largely failing, didn’t lose that many troops in the Afghan war, which we viewed as their Vietnam?

But one also wonders, if that’s the case then is it possible the estimates for Russian losses today are high?

See…Russia is smaller today than the USSR…so in fact the losses are even more staggering.

Russia has 140 million people but it’s an older population, so doesn’t that mean that the losses among the smaller young male cohort is quite high?

By numbers wouldn’t it be like the losses in the US Civil War in some towns?

This makes me wonder

[Miriam Vollmer @miriam_vollmer]

@u_hoepfner Ja, denke ich auch. Die Leute können sich rauskaufen für 250.000, aber nun gibt es Klagen von Medizinern, die weder aufs Land wollen noch 250k zahlen. Offenbar sind bisher 65 dieser Studis fertig, 28 sind vor Gericht gezogen.
https://t.co/P1DoNchDn0

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

Latest piece out. The Ratcliffe case was a narrative victory for Trump when he needs it most. With no evidence, the idea that he was strong, was warning Putin to back down and was protecting Europe was spread quickly. The fact that he is desperate for Putin’s help on Iran was often overlooked. It is amazing how easily the administration manipulates the press to do its political bidding.