In the moment. Love cash flow, cats, watching hockey, pizza and steak. Know where you are, where your going and how to get there. Why type when you can gif!
🇺🇦22:40 | 29/06
Approximate flight routes of our UAVs:
🔴 Red arrows — directions of strike UAV movement;
🔵 Blue arrows — directions of jet-powered UAV movement;
At the moment, the highest concentration of UAVs is being observed over occupied Crimea and the Luhansk region. Some of the drones approaching from the Luhansk direction are heading toward Voronezh Oblast, while others are moving toward Rostov Oblast. Earlier, Russian monitoring channels also tracked groups of UAVs over Bryansk Oblast; those drones have now reportedly reached Yaroslavl Oblast.
According to Russian sources, around 400 drones were reported, though these estimates and the displayed routes remain highly approximate.
🇺🇦 A new domestic short-range air defense system, "Rif" SAM, has been introduced.
The complex is a modernization of the "Strela-10" SAM using "R-10-OF" missiles from Luch Design Bureau, which have a range of up to 10 km and are guided by a laser beam.
We've seen an implosion in the financial demand for oil and the 50:1 ratio of financial:physical is likely distorting price relative to medium-term fundamentals. Inventories will continue to fall, rigs will soon start to stack, physical demand metrics like refining margins remain strong, floating/unsanctioned Iranian barrels will soon be absorbed, Iran will likely remain in control of the Strait, and China will at some point return to the market. What then???
While Iranian officials continue to deny that technical level talks with the U.S. are set to take place in the coming days, officials continue to tell U.S. media that talks are in fact happening, as a diplomat with knowledge on the matter has confirmed earlier reports, telling NewsNation that Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Envoy Jared Kushner are set to meet their Qatari counterparts in Doha, Qatar tomorrow to discuss the negotiations framework. Additionally, per the report, despite Iranian claims to the contrary, technical talks are set to take place between the U.S. and Iran this upcoming Wednesday, as Iran continues to signal, likely for PR reasons, that no talks are scheduled.
⛽️❗️Four more regions of Russia have restricted the sale of gasoline and diesel: in Yakutia, Bashkortostan, as well as in Primorsky and Krasnodar Krai.
Employees of logistics companies complain about salary delays and forced vacations "at their own expense".
Ukrainian attack drones successfully destroyed the E-58 highway bridge in Novoazovsk, dropping the main deck into the Hruzkyi Yelanchyk River.
Ukrainian forces continue their campaign to destroy bridges on Russian rear-area supply routes, knocking down several over the past week
Look, it’s very simple. Either products are full of shit and the tightness we are seeing in spreads are going to turn to shit, or crude is full of shit and will reverse violently higher.
Final crude estimate for June 26 week. Total crude draw of 13.82 million bbls.
Commercial crude draw of 8.32 million bbls as SPR release slows down to 5.5 million bbls.
This pace is expected over the coming weeks as SPR release is almost done.
President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran had requested a meeting with U.S. counterparts, though one of Iran's top negotiators said no further talks had been scheduled after attacks across the Persian Gulf over the weekend challenged negotiations to end the war. https://t.co/0TssOLWELG
The oil market is in a race against the clock. Global oil inventories continue to fall, with onshore storage now at its seasonally lowest point in recorded history. Strait inbounds remain far below necessary levels to allow the return of ~ 11MM Bbl/d of still shut-in Middle Eastern production. Iran is clearly in charge, and my best advisors continue to believe they will not relinquish control. The biggest unknown is Chinese imports, down ~4.7MM Bbl/d and the single biggest reason why we did not see the demand-reducing price spike...yet. Visible Chinese inventories have barely fallen yet their imports are down ~450MM Bbls = significant and unsustainable drop in invisible refined product and oil stocks. When does China come back? With only ~90MM Bbls of remaining barrels stuck in the Strait, the net balance once that is absorbed is outbound tankers vs. curtailed production vs. reduced inbound tankers (the one to watch) = continued inventory draws. With the crude curve below pre-war levels, the market is completely apathetic to the above, fully believing in every tweet declaring imminent peace. Yet, the clock continues to count down to operational lows and tank bottoms.
The U.S. Supreme Court has refused to take up attorney Alan Dershowitz’s appeal to reinstate his defamation lawsuit against CNN, effectively ending his legal challenge against the network.
Qatar's Ministry of Transport has directed the owners and operators of maritime vessels not subject to international maritime regulations to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice.
The directive, issued in coordination with relevant security authorities, applies to recreational and fishing vessels and comes amid heightened security concerns in the region.