In the moment. Love cash flow, cats, watching hockey, pizza and steak. Know where you are, where your going and how to get there. Why type when you can gif!
Look, it’s very simple. Either products are full of shit and the tightness we are seeing in spreads are going to turn to shit, or crude is full of shit and will reverse violently higher.
Final crude estimate for June 26 week. Total crude draw of 13.82 million bbls.
Commercial crude draw of 8.32 million bbls as SPR release slows down to 5.5 million bbls.
This pace is expected over the coming weeks as SPR release is almost done.
President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran had requested a meeting with U.S. counterparts, though one of Iran's top negotiators said no further talks had been scheduled after attacks across the Persian Gulf over the weekend challenged negotiations to end the war. https://t.co/0TssOLWELG
The oil market is in a race against the clock. Global oil inventories continue to fall, with onshore storage now at its seasonally lowest point in recorded history. Strait inbounds remain far below necessary levels to allow the return of ~ 11MM Bbl/d of still shut-in Middle Eastern production. Iran is clearly in charge, and my best advisors continue to believe they will not relinquish control. The biggest unknown is Chinese imports, down ~4.7MM Bbl/d and the single biggest reason why we did not see the demand-reducing price spike...yet. Visible Chinese inventories have barely fallen yet their imports are down ~450MM Bbls = significant and unsustainable drop in invisible refined product and oil stocks. When does China come back? With only ~90MM Bbls of remaining barrels stuck in the Strait, the net balance once that is absorbed is outbound tankers vs. curtailed production vs. reduced inbound tankers (the one to watch) = continued inventory draws. With the crude curve below pre-war levels, the market is completely apathetic to the above, fully believing in every tweet declaring imminent peace. Yet, the clock continues to count down to operational lows and tank bottoms.
The U.S. Supreme Court has refused to take up attorney Alan Dershowitz’s appeal to reinstate his defamation lawsuit against CNN, effectively ending his legal challenge against the network.
Qatar's Ministry of Transport has directed the owners and operators of maritime vessels not subject to international maritime regulations to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice.
The directive, issued in coordination with relevant security authorities, applies to recreational and fishing vessels and comes amid heightened security concerns in the region.
SCOTUS rejects the Trump administration’s emergency bid to halt an injunction blocking the firing of Fed Gov Lisa Cook. Chief Justice Roberts warns the government's sweeping interpretation would strip the Fed's "for cause" protections and turn independence into "at-will employment."
The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear Donald Trump’s appeal to overturn a $5 million verdict in the defamation and sexual abuse lawsuit filed by E. Jean Carroll. The justices' refusal leaves in place a lower court ruling that upheld the 2023 jury decision, which found the former president liable for abusing the columnist and subsequently defaming her.
Iraqi police have released picture of some of the money (dollars) they found in the home of the pro-Iranian Shiite MP Aliya Nassif last night.
She has long been one of the more famous MP’s in the Iraqi Parliament’s anti-corruption committee.
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BREAKING: Iran's lead negotiator Gharibabadi directly rejects Axios report that technical talks are happening in Doha this week, per Iran Nuances.
"No date set. No venue agreed. No technical talks," Gharibabadi stated. "Routine consultations with Qatar continue, but formal negotiations can only begin when conditions are met otherwise not."
Axios reported, citing U.S. officials, that Iran and the U.S. agreed to halt attacks and meet Tuesday in Doha. Iran says the report is false.
This is a pattern. Axios has published multiple "deal imminent" scoops—each landing before markets open, each moving oil prices, each rejected by Tehran. Axios is not a mediator. It's a market mover—dressed as journalism.
BREAKING: Iran official Gharibabadi says 'no plan' for direct US talks this week; calls media reports on Qatar meeting 'unconfirmed'
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/bREASHdus1
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Axios' claim of US-Iran technical talks in Doha this week, stating "technical working group meetings are not planned for this week" and that any next round will only be held "once all conditions are met," per Tasnim.
Iran reiterates these conditions include Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, ending its military operations there and the release of frozen Iranian funds.