hallwaymonitor

Investing and monitoring of the decentralized and permissionless protocols.
#OccupyDeFi

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

The story of Ripple.

[IOV.tips @xrptips]

2015 - Banks will never use Ripple. $XRP is dead. Sorry bag holders.

2016 - Bank announcements are just proof of concepts, they'll never go live. $XRP is dead.

2017 - Fine, 70+ banks are going live but they don't use $XRP. How come dumb bag holders don't get this?

2018 - ...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Always amazing looking at $MU earnings:

Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est.
EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est.

Forecasts:

Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est
EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31.

“Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements”

"When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these"

Looks like memory demand has become structural…

But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Do you understand how cheap memory stocks are?

$SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix and Samsung: all under 8x 2027 P/E.

Throw Kioxia & Nanya in there too.

Then you've got $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang saying that the memory shortage will persist for "several years."

This is probably the most fool-proof trade globally rn.

(NFA, DYOR)

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

@DudespostingWs What comes to dating success this is true only if the man has looks (beautiful face). Being fit and approachable without looks boosts only chances of friend (face-) zone.

[The Ancient Sage @TheAncientSage]

Instead of chasing happiness, deal with the sources of your unhappiness.

The more real problems you solve the less unhappy you will be.

And the absence of unhappiness will make you happy.

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

After the AI bubble pops, where will those moneys go? Back to inflating FIAT? Back to US treasuries? I don't think so. There has to be something better...

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Bloomberg Odd Lots Host Says This May Be the "Coldest Crypto Winter Ever"

Bloomberg Odd Lots host Joe Weisenthal said in his newsletter that this may be the "coldest crypto winter ever." He argued that crypto faces multiple narrative pressures, including fading "we're still early" claims, already-realized institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds, AI taking market attention and electricity resources, quantum-security concerns around Bitcoin, and DAT firms such as Strategy shifting from buyers to sellers.

Weisenthal also said strong AI and tech-stock rallies are drawing capital and attention away from crypto, while the few crypto winners may have already completed their major moves. The comments represent his personal view.

Source: https://t.co/sxgIEcrT8W

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

The same analogy what comes to looks.

[Shayne in the Blockchayne @ShayneOnChayne]

@Heavenly_Race_ My favourite thing about these types of posts is everything thinks they are the high IQ person while reading it

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

As always:

[Jøhnathan @Heavenly_Race_]

This post blew up, and the replies perfectly illustrate the exact point I was making.

The most common pushback is some version of:

“Nuh-uh, intelligent people can still communicate with lower-IQ individuals just fine.”

I shouldn’t have to spell this out, but here we go.

Nobody is claiming you can’t have a basic transactional conversation with a grocery store clerk, order food, or make small talk with your neighbor. Surface level communication works across moderate gaps. You point, you smile, you use simple sentences, it gets the job done.
The real breakdown happens when you move beyond scripts and start exchanging actual ideas.

That’s where the 20-point gap becomes a chasm:

- One person is thinking in systems, incentives, second and third order consequences.

- The other is stuck at first order, immediate, concrete terms.

What feels like a crystal clear, logical argument to the higher IQ person sounds like confusing, overly complicated nonsense to the other.

You’re not speaking the same conceptual language anymore.

This is why high IQ people often feel chronically alienated in normal social or professional environments, and why average people can find very bright individuals exhausting, “weird,” or arrogant.

It’s also why throwing together teams, friendships, marriages, or institutions with massive cognitive mismatches creates persistent friction that “just be nice” rhetoric can’t magically dissolve.
Basic communication? Usually possible.
Deep, accurate exchange of complex ideas? Often not.

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Hot take: There is a limited window of time, like any new industry, where a new tool appears and people don't understand it fully yet, and it's powerful enough to change your entire life, but not so powerful it's been completely taken over by corporate interests yet. And when this tool appears you have two choices: use it to skyrocket your life and take advantage of this TEMPORARY moment, or resist/hate/be angry/complain/, do nothing, and the moment is gone forever.

These brief moments in time are when shifts in the game board happen. It happened with Crypto, its happening with AI, it happens with any NEW thing. These shifts in the game board allow people who came/come from nothing, to elevate, using nothing but DEMOCRATIZED tools, moving first, their creativity, and execution.

Our take is that instead of poo poo-ing the tool, USE the tool, improve your life, try applying the tool to the industries/things you know best, get creative, and catapault your way into a new class. You'll fine the sense of fulfillment you get as you're building, growing, expanding, learning, elevating your life, to FAR OUTWEIGH any feelings of superiority you get by hating and rejecting the tool.

If you don't use this time, VERY likely chance in the future, whether 5 years, 10 years, when you are older, have more family, more weight/responsibility, and the realities of life are much more tangible, you'll wish you had acted more during this time. You don't want to be filled with regret because you chose to hate/dismiss, instead of build/grow, which ONLY helps you and the ones you love.

TLDR? Instead of hating/dismissing a new tool, use this BRIEF WINDOW of time to elevate/improve your life. The window is temporary and if you don't use it because you want to please a small niche of people who don't really care about your success anyways, you may very highly regret that decision.

Disclaimer: Post written with care and consideration and in a good spirit. Please don't be hateful for no reason. This is to benefit those who these words get through to.

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

@ashwathbk Timeframe in less than 5 years.

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

@ashwathbk I predict that AI will pretty much replace those operative teams (e.g. at Infosys) who actually conduct regular changes in the IT systems. Basically the manager will just consult AI to do the shit in the system instead of the operative team.

[Brett Adcock @adcock_brett]

Watch a team of humanoid robots running a full 8-hr shift at human performance levels. This is fully autonomous running Helix-02 https://t.co/IdZR0T1F5I

[Jay Alto @theJayAlto]

pleasure is to happiness what sugar is to nutrition

[sengpt @sengpt]

23 yaşında bi genç 60 yıldır çözülemeyen Erdös problemlerinden birini chatgpt 5.4 pro ile çözmüş.

hem de tek atışta.

chatgpt'nin soruyu çözmek için harcadığı süre 1 saat 20 dakika.

işin ilginci ai, herkesin bildiği ama kimsenin bu probleme uygulamadığı bi formülü kullanarak problemi çözmüş.

burada chatgpt yazışması;

https://t.co/FftwT3Hg9Z

bu da problem;

https://t.co/wXJrn2dmat

[hallwaymonitor @hallwaymonitor2]

@Route2FI Start practicing endurance sports such as running or cycling. Huge time sink. Rest days will be appreciated more no longer boring.

[Disclose.tv @disclosetv]

NEW - Germany now requires all men between the ages of 17 and 45 to obtain permission from the military before leaving the country for more than three months.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US is preparing for a potential ground invasion into Iran that would last for up to 2 months, per the Washington Post.

Details include:

1. Thousands of American soldiers are arriving in the Middle East for what could become a "dangerous new phase" of the war

2. Any invasion would involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, US officials said

3. President Trump has wavered between declaring that the war is winding down and threatening to amplify it

4. Discussions over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz

The Iran War appears to be entering a new era.

[Pirat_Nation 🔴 @Pirat_Nation]

New York’s proposed S08102 would force every internet-connected device to run mandatory, device-level age verification using biometrics or government IDs.

This isn’t just about kids online—it builds a permanent, trackable identity layer across the entire internet.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Iran has a new Supreme Leader. It does not matter. The 31 IRGC provincial commands that control the missiles, the drones, and the airspace do not answer to him.

Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on 8 March. First hereditary succession in the Republic’s history. Rank of hojatoleslam. Never spoken publicly. Whereabouts classified. The Mosaic Defence doctrine, activated the moment his father was killed, placed independent firing authority in 31 autonomous commands designed to operate without central leadership. Pezeshkian promised strikes would stop on 7 March. They continued within hours. His government admitted the armed forces operate independently.

This has rendered the entire Middle Eastern airspace commercially uninsurable. Not just Iran. The full regional envelope.

Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman: all confirmed struck. Iraq: 67 militia operations against US targets at Al Asad and other bases. Lebanon: 210 Hezbollah missiles into Israeli airspace. Jordan: AN/TPY-2 radar at Muwaffaq Salti destroyed. The overflight corridors crossing Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Israel, and Egypt are all within demonstrated range of a fragmented command network that struck six countries simultaneously in a single night.

Lloyd’s, Allianz, AIG, and Munich Re must now calculate the probability that all 31 independent IRGC commanders, plus Hezbollah, plus Iraqi militias, plus Houthi reactivation risk, will simultaneously refrain from firing at any aircraft for every minute of every transit across this envelope for the entire policy duration.

The mathematics are explicit. At 99% daily restraint per actor, combined probability across 31 IRGC commands alone is 73%. Add the proxy constellation: below 60%. Over a week: below 10%. Over a 30-day policy: approaching zero. One rogue provincial launch into a civilian corridor resets the actuarial clock entirely, because it proves the counterparty model was wrong and exposes reinsurer capital to unlimited tail risk on every active policy.

This is why war-risk surcharges have surged 400 to 900% across the full corridor from Larnaca to Muscat, Ankara to Aden. Why 30,000 flights are cancelled. Why Cathay Pacific charges AUD $39,492 for business-class Sydney to London. Why air-freight through the Gulf, Iraq, and eastern Mediterranean has collapsed.

Here is why it cannot stop.

The 31 commands will continue attacking US bases at Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, and Camp Arifjan as long as US and Israeli strikes on Iran continue. Each commander operates under pre-delegated authority requiring zero coordination with Tehran. Every bomb dropped generates the next retaliatory launch from a commander who needs no permission and has no superior capable of ordering restraint. The war feeds the doctrine. The doctrine feeds the insurance withdrawal. The withdrawal feeds the airfare explosion. The loop has no internal off-switch.

After 26 months of Houthi attacks from a single actor with unified command, shipping premiums never returned to baseline. Aviation reinsurers now face autonomous actors spanning an airspace across three continents with no unified command, no central override, and a Supreme Leader whose military does not recognise his operational authority.

The market prices this lasting weeks. The actuarial mathematics, modelled from Beirut to Bandar Abbas, say it lasts until every autonomous actor is neutralised, individually negotiated with, or verifiably disarmed.

The sky is not closed by missiles. It is closed by the mathematical impossibility of insuring safe passage through airspace governed by 31 autonomous commands, a proxy constellation, and an escalation loop that strengthens with every strike.

Full analysis here!
https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game.”

Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabari, adviser to the IRGC commander, said this on 8 March directly to the Gulf states hosting American bases. Brent is already trading at $103 to $108 with intraday spikes touching $115 to $119. WTI has breached $100. The IRGC is not threatening from a position of weakness. It is threatening from a position where the Strait is already commercially closed, seven P&I clubs have already withdrawn, and 31 autonomous provincial commands are already striking targets across six Gulf countries simultaneously without requiring a single order from Tehran.

This was not rhetoric. It was a capability statement. Here is why.

The IRGC maintains an estimated 2,500 to 6,000 ballistic and cruise missiles distributed across 31 autonomous provincial commands activated under Mosaic Defence doctrine after the 28 February decapitation.

Each command controls its own launchers, stockpiles, and target lists. None requires authorisation from Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader who has never spoken publicly, or from Pezeshkian whose ceasefire promise was overridden within hours. Iranian drone production runs at approximately 10,000 units per month. A Shahed costs $20,000. It can reach any oil terminal, any desalination plant, any port, and any tanker loading berth in every Gulf state from a launch site the size of a parking lot.

The $200 scenario is not about closing Hormuz. Hormuz is already closed. Zero tanker transits. The $200 scenario is about what comes next: systematic, sustained, decentralised strikes on the oil export infrastructure of Iran’s neighbours. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal. The UAE’s Jebel Ali port complex. Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi. Qatar’s Ras Laffan, already under force majeure. Bahrain’s Bapco, already struck. These are not hypothetical targets. Provincial commanders have already demonstrated the reach, the accuracy, and the doctrinal authority to hit them independently.

The arithmetic is merciless. Hormuz carries 20 million barrels per day. Pipeline bypasses cover 3.5 to 5.5 million. Current deficit: approximately 15 million barrels trapped daily. If provincial commands begin systematically targeting Saudi and UAE export terminals, the deficit widens to include production that currently bypasses the Strait. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Petroline moves 2.5 million barrels per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea. If Yanbu is struck, or if Houthi reactivation closes Bab al-Mandab, that bypass disappears. At that point the market loses not 20 million barrels but 25 million or more. The 1973 embargo removed 5 million. The 1979 revolution removed 4 million. The 2003 Iraq invasion removed 2 million. The all-time price high was $147 in 2008 on a supply disruption a fraction of this magnitude.

$200 is not the ceiling of a 25-million-barrel removal. It is the floor.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 Brent forecast to $76 and flagged $100 if disruption exceeds five weeks. They have not modelled 31 autonomous commands with 10,000 drones per month targeting every unhardened export terminal between Kuwait City and Muscat while the Strait remains actuarially closed and the reinsurance market refuses to underwrite a single transit.

The IRGC spokesman was not making a threat. He was reading the order of battle to an audience that still prices this war inside a legacy framework where centralised states negotiate, ceasefires hold, and oil shocks mean-revert.

Thirty-one commands. Ten thousand drones per month. Twenty-five million barrels at risk. Brent already past $108 with no ceasefire counterparty in existence.

And no one in Tehran with the authority to call it off.

Full analysis in the link.

https://t.co/eMrt5qYqCV

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

Guys, this is the next logical step from what has already started. Your phones are already listening to you 24/7. People have already invited Alexas into their home. People are buying AI wearable pendants that are always listening to you. The next wave of tech are these AI glasses that not only track what you see but track your eyeball movements and how long you linger on any object (which your phone already does).

This is all data they are feeding into an LLM to build a 300 page dossier on YOU.

The conspiracy theorists have always been right. The government, big tech, etc. absolutely ARE listening to you and they ARE watching you.

You have to reject the surveillance tech.

It is likely impossible, but you must do what you can. The least you can do is slow it down, minimize, and not invite it in.

Remember, all this data can and WILL be used against you at some point in the future. You never know if you’ll find yourself on the wrong side of the powers that be tomorrow. If you do, they’ve got the data from your whole life. Any story can be manufactured. Any narrative told.