The Market is Rigged

Just another Data Analytics, PHP/Laravel, and Equities/Derivatives Trader. No trading/investment advisory; re-tweets are whatever.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

Market is rigged.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

Congratulations #Spain
It was really good game. #España #Football

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@sam007__007 @KOACHKAMALSAINI Bro make me a diet plan 😊

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Bottoms are much easier to call than tops. Panic as measured by the $VIX, usually does not last forever. At some point, the pain of the drawdown and the damage caused to society becomes so large that governments, central banks, investors, and companies are forced to change behavior.

But tops are almost impossible to call. Greed is a natural human phenomenon, and unlike panic, greed can last for years. People can stay irrational, euphoric, and overly optimistic much longer than anyone expects.

[Hunain @PTI_Scientist]

former PM of Pakistan, @ImranKhanPTI warned of a global economic crisis if Iran & U.S go to war:

[William Dalrymple @DalrympleWill]

"Prisoner number 804: the plot to erase Imran Khan
It’s one thing to remove a PM from office, as happened to the former cricketer in 2022. But it’s another thing to try to eradicate the most famous person in Pakistan’s history"
https://t.co/4CmJDhUOwp

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@unusual_whales Shit 💩

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@jeymls_fonda @MichaelPatak Money problem

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@spectatorindex Can they ship them to Germany?

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇵🇰 EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: IMRAN KHAN’S SONS BREAK THEIR SILENCE

Every once in a while, I conduct an interview that could shape the politics of a country.

This may be one of them.

Imran Khan, who I spoke with just weeks before his arrest, was one of the most popular leaders of our time.
Often called the “Trump of Pakistan,” he had an approval rating above 60%.

But when he turned against the country’s powerful military establishment, the cost was immediate.

He was shot.
Then jailed.
Then banned — not just from office, but from television, radio, and social media.

And yet, even from behind bars, even with his name erased, his party still won a majority in Pakistan’s latest elections.

It didn’t matter.

Today, he sits in a 7x8 cell designed for death row inmates.
No light. No lawyer. No access to doctors. No due process.

His sons, Sulaiman and Kasim Khan, have spent their lives out of the spotlight, far from the chaos of Pakistani politics.

But for nearly 2 years, they’ve watched their father — wounded, silenced, and locked in solitary confinement — be forgotten by the world.

They haven’t seen him since he was shot.
Phone calls, when they come, arrive at random — sometimes at 4 a.m. — and last only 20 minutes before the line goes dead.

They stayed completely silent through all of it.
Not because they didn’t care — but because they were afraid speaking out would make things worse.

But now?

Now it’s been too long.
Now the silence feels like betrayal.
Now, they’re speaking — because this might be the only thing left they can do.

And they did not hold back.

To Pakistanis: do not lose hope.

To the international community: do not turn a blind eye.

Thank you @elonmusk and @lindayaX for X and your fight for free speech.

Disclaimers: This interview was conducted prior to the recent clashes between India and Pakistan.
I am not alleging the Pakistani military or Government was behind Imran’s assassination attempt.

Also note: Urdu voice over of the interview posted below as a comment.

01:26 — “He’s literally in the dark.”
No visits. No lawyers. No calls. No light.

02:16 — “He’s completely alone.”
No contact. No doctor. No way to know if he’s okay.

03:19 — “A death cell… for terrorists.”
7x8 feet. Blacked out. Designed to erase the human spirit.

04:09 — “First two days were hell.”
He survived 10 days in pitch darkness by forcing himself into a Zen-like state.

05:55 — “The line cuts at 20 minutes.”
Half the time: lessons. The rest: he asks about our lives.

06:50 — “We get a 4 a.m. message.”
If we miss it, it’s months before we hear from him again.

08:04 — “They’re trying to break him.”
No light. No doctors. No calls. But he refuses to fold.

09:16 — “He won’t take the deal.”
Not without his people. Not if it means betraying them.

13:22 — “We’ve run out of options.”
Legal routes are gone. Silence no longer helps. This is our last card.

15:19 — “They banned his name.”
On TV, radio, and online — we became the code for our own father.

17:01 — “We never spoke to Grenell.”
But we’re grateful. And we’ll speak to anyone who’ll listen.

18:27 — “It’s 100% political.”
False charges. Fake trials. A democracy on mute.

20:51 — “Yes, people have been taken.”
Supporters, journalists — vanished. Tortured. Broken.

22:06 — “He told us to stay private.”
But now? We have no choice.

24:03 — “We thought it’d be a few weeks.”
It’s been nearly two years.

26:26 — “He reads. He teaches. Then he listens.”
Each call is a lifeline.

28:05 — “They blurred him out.”
Even the 1992 World Cup photos — he was erased.

31:00 — “I’ve grown more in 2 years than 20.”
That’s what he tells us.

32:20 — “It’s getting desperate.”
New threats. Talk of a death sentence. No end in sight.

32:57 — “We asked him for permission.”
He said: Do it.

35:00 — “The last time we saw him, he’d been shot.”
Three bullets. Still standing. Still smiling.

36:45 — “We’re told not to come back.”
We might be used to break him further.

38:16 — “Respect the vote.”
PTI won — even without its symbol, even in silence.

39:38 — “Selling exotic fruit?”
That’s what they jailed him for.

40:53 — “Some family members were scared.”
But we have to try something.

42:07 — “He’s not done.”
Still learning. Still fighting. Still planning.

43:12 — “He’s 70. He was shot. And they deny him a doctor.”
This is not justice. This is torture.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@HarmeetSinghPk Website chal rahi hia.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@Naya__Pakistan_ Mubarak ho, I am so happy for him.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

This guy is absolutely disgusting. After cheating the community with FTT and Scott, he is back again, trying to cheat again? If you have so much profits, why the hell you just start live trading on YT? Once a cheater is always a cheater. But you're 50 feets below the crap.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

In other words:

I didn't tell you exactly when I bought but you noticed in fillings. But now I am giving you thesis why to buy so it can squeeze and I can exit/sell some at profit.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

We began accumulating shares in @Hertz late last year, and as of today, we have a 19.8% stake in the company comprised of outright share ownership and total return swaps.

Hertz can be thought of as an operating company combined with a highly leveraged portfolio of automobiles. A misstep years ago with respect to the company’s purchase of Teslas created operating issues, some customer demand issues, and exposed the company to an unanticipated reduction in residual values when @Tesla dramatically reduced the price of its cars, leading to large operating losses.

We believe that a combination of: (1) an improving industry structure and more rational competitive behavior, (2) the near resolution of the company’s over exposure to Teslas, (3) a successful operational turnaround plan under a new management team with a track record of success in an adjacent industry, and (4) the company’s leveraged capital structure will enable Hertz shareholders to generate a highly attractive return on investment.

The U.S. car rental industry operates as an oligopoly where @Enterprise, @Avis, and Hertz account for nearly 95% of the market. The industry’s pricing discipline has improved since the pandemic. Enterprise’s high profit margins (we believe +20%) – currently, the best managed industry player – demonstrate that the car rental business can be very profitable.

We believe that the improvements that CEO Gil West and his management team are making by rotating Hertz’s fleet, increasing unit revenues, and reducing operating costs will significantly improve profit margins over the next several years. Hertz has already made meaningful progress in rotating out higher cost vehicles that had temporarily elevated depreciation expense, which should meaningfully lower vehicle depreciation going forward.

While Hertz has a highly leveraged balance sheet today, the substantial majority of the company’s debt does not mature until 2028 and 2029. Hertz has ample liquidity – including cash on hand, available revolver capacity, and
debt capacity within its asset-backed securitization facilities – to support its fleet rotation, and to address maturities and other financial liabilities.

Hertz is uniquely well-positioned in the current tariff environment, where auto tariffs are likely to cause used car prices to rise. Hertz owns a fleet of over 500,000 vehicles valued at approximately $12 billion. A 10% increase in used car prices would equate to a $1.2 billion gain on its auto assets – equivalent to approximately half of the company’s current market capitalization.

The company finalized its 2025 model year purchases with OEMs earlier this year on attractive terms prior to the tariffs being enacted, ensuring a favorable basis in the replacement fleet.

Valuation
Using management’s nearer term targets of $1,500 revenue per unit (RPU), low $30s/day vehicle operating expenses, and ~$300 depreciation per unit (DPU), and assuming modest increases by 2029, including an increase in fleet utilization from 80% to 85%, we estimate that Hertz could generate approximately $2 billion of Adjusted EBITDA (a metric which is net of auto depreciation and interest expense for the company’s fleet and asset-backed financing).

At 7.5 times EBITDA, a valuation that we believe to be conservative in light of improvements in the competitive posture of the industry, we estimate that Hertz will be worth ~$30 per share by 2029.

While the tariff announcements have created a near-term cloud over the travel industry – we have low expectations for Hertz’s Q1 and r first half results – we believe that over the intermediate term, the company will generate sustainably higher profitability.

Now for a fun thought experiment:

What if UBER partnered with Hertz on an AV fleet roll out over time?

Hertz’s large installed fleet of 500k vehicles, its expertise in vehicle maintenance and servicing, and the significant scope and scale of its thousands of locations (11,200 globally) and other difficult to replace at scale physical infrastructure make it an ideal partner for @Uber, a partnership which could greatly improve the utilization and profitability of Hertz’s vehicle fleet.

Come to think of it, I am going to call @dkhos.

Investing is risky. There are no guarantees of a successful outcome. Caveat emptor.

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

🥐 fresh crumbs

We are optimistic the current rally will peak at 5650-6000

⚠️ BUT there are a lot of other factors at play now 🐝💦

We believe that this decline is going to be a process

... akin to the Tech Bubble + Great Financial Crisis

A 35% - 45% decline over a year and change ... but more painful than what we saw in those other declines

We're talking about a historic decline, in which the Fed is unable to assist, with rising interest rates in a stagflationary environment

1969 - 1970 ✍️

@jam_croissant with @adamtaggart

Full interview 👇
https://t.co/ouZUH5M5WE

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@markoinny You’re right. At least we know you lost your job.

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@MenthorQpro @hyperconvexity

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@hyperconvexity @FirstSquawk And M5

[The Market is Rigged @hammad_shahir]

@hyperconvexity I play sometimes PUBG. Lol.