Hanson

fundamental equities

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

Earnings report from financial firms are good bellwethers of the economy. Tracking each category gives us a picture of how each sub-sector of the economy is doing:

1. Consumer credit
2. Consumer and commercial banking
3. Investment banks
4. Specialty finance

🧵

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@ContrarianCurse VCs backing the AI labs are eating it

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@ThierryBorgeat @zerohedge So is the useful life of GPUs still more than 5 years?

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@aleabitoreddit Anon did not listen and is now broke

[TheValueist @TheValueist]

Huge new dataset on BBG - datacenters. It is surprisingly detailed, with many key data points.

$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@ReturnsJourney Has a cult following though

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

One of the best things about using X is that you can get insights from semiconductor industry professionals for free.

I enjoyed reading it.

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@jukan05 Doosan ($000150.KR) seems like a double even at these levels

[Tintin Capital @Tintincapital]

Sir Chris Hohn claims he has a list of 200 investable companies that presumably meet his criteria of holding "irreplaceable assets".

The intangible IP ones ( $mco, $fico, etc) are well known and well covered. I'm more interested in those with physical assets.

Here are some *potentially * Irreplaceable, globally traded Railroads, Tourist Destinations, Airports, and Exchanges:

Railroads
$cni
$cp
$unp
$csx
$nsc
$azj.ax
$pkp.wa
$bvzn.sw
$jfn.sw
$bts.set
$rail3.b3
$601333.sz
$66.hk
$9009.t
$9142.t
$9023.t
$9001.t
$9020.t
$9022.t
$2633.tw

Tourism:
$dis
$mtn
$emaar.df
$jfn.sw
$sphr
$4661.t
$4.hk
$000888.sz

Airports
$adp.pa
$caap
$pac
$omab
$asr
$aot.set
$aena.mc
$fra.de
$flu.sw
$tavhl.is
$9706.t
$aia.nz
$aia.at
$cbhl.co
$gmrairport.bo

Stock Exchanges:
$gpw.wa
$nzx.nz
$jse.jo
$lseg.l
$otcm
$ndaq
$tase.ta
$exae.at
$byma.ba
$x.to
$bursa.kl
$enx.pa
$s68.si
$db1.de
$ice
$b3sa3.b3 (Sega blood code for MC)
$cme
$asx.ax
$psx.ks
$bet.bd
$bvcc.cr
$lus1.de

[milian (ARX MODE) @milianstx]

https://t.co/B7tDdk8ped

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Every stock pitch should be able to be boiled down to three things:

1. Consensus view
2. Your variant view
3. What event will make your variant view the consensus view​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​.

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@TMTLongShort University of Colombia

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@splinter0n The truth is most of these contracts are poorly written and there’s always a loophole to be exploited - no such thing as a decentralized oracle, it doesn’t work

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@nicochristie Would love to have a code as well, thanks!

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@bucketshopcap Finance jobs are increasingly being replaced by AIs + lots of funding in AI = expansion and job creation in AI.

Probably pays a lot better for less hours worked as well

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

Looking for good short candidates with these characteristics:
1. Complicated/geographically-exposed supply chains
2. Discretionary good/exposed to expansionary capex
3. Already high valuation (70th percentile fwd valuation vs historical)
4. High olev

Maybe autos, possibly $TSLA

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

We calculated that post Trump “put” today, the tariff mix is actually worse —China exports more consumer goods to US than other countries, so boosting that (to 125%) relative to others will boost the hit to consumption goods.

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

Scrolling through my bookmarks. And I think this is an important point in the world we live in now. There are too many ever-changing variables - best to limit the no. of variables to look at to avoid analysis paralysis.

[Srivatsan Prakash @SrivatsPrakash]

16/On amount of analysis:

Soros said that “...I don’t like working. I do the absolute minimum that is necessary to reach a decision."

He focused on analyzing as little as possible, and knew a little about a lot of things.

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

@alifarhat79 Buy up

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

$ON, $DECK and $LULU are the most exposed to US reciprocal tariffs; $NKE and $ADS least exposed

[Hanson @hansonhsq]

At first glance, US reciprocal tariffs is going to be bad for sports apparel and footwear producers $LULU, $ON, $NKE, $ADS, $DECK

Where most of their products are produced (VN, CN, ID, KH, BD, LK), reciprocal tariffs are 32-54%. Your favorite pair of trainers and yoga pants are gonna be significantly more expensive.