Harald

Afropreneur / Student @Harvard @HSEAS. Passionate about energy, business and Africa. Amandla!

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@tito_mboweni ...and Kissinger commenting on the Treaty of Versailles (Diplomacy, 1994)

[Harald @haraldoswin]

78MW is diesel gx from Aggreko/APR Energy leased for 36 months @ ~$1/Watt (excl fuel).

The rationale is sensible: bridge shortfalls from (floundering) hydro Gx & incoming 200MW Moz interconnector.

But current electricity price is R0.91/kWh. Est. diesel gx cost? R2.24/kWh! https://t.co/nKoIOERWZz

[ESI Africa @ESIAfrica]

#Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi secures gensets to add 78MW to the country's power grid end of Jan. https://t.co/z0alYISny1

[Harald @haraldoswin]

RT for awareness! 😃 https://t.co/vGQWgeSgkh

[Sibusiso Xaba @Sibusiso]

My boy is there. We’ll set you up, but can you get us tickets for your London gig 😁? https://t.co/QK2f6mQRsW

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@solarenergygrp That's exactly my argument Tihan.

These paid-off "cars" are still going to be running for a while. The most geriatric ones will be here for at least the next 5yrs.

But we've designed a system that prioritizes newer "cars" even if they aren't cheaper than what we already have.

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@Arfness It shows the cost Eskom's Single Buyer Office (i.e. system ops division) will pay to Gx. It's firm, not hypothetical.

You are saying mining houses aren't charging enough to recover rehab costs, and/or plants like Komati aren't charging enough to recover their investment costs.🤨

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@illWayne

The Eskom plant data is sourced from a 2017 study by Meridian Economics. https://t.co/EJLT3kCr3i

The REIPPP data is from one of @Energy_ZA IPP unit's quarterly reports.
https://t.co/DUs8NDqQYF

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@PEnukeno @Eskom_SA +90% of generation is currently coal-fired. PV+wind is <5%. This, unfortunately, will take a while to change☹️

By my argument we're locked in only for as long as it makes econ sense. SA is 1% of world emissions & poor. Should ~27% of the power bill to go to CO2 initiatives?

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@pcvenn Sure, these plants have a long lead time. But I think Eskom can sit out at least another year before they settle on a build. There's enough existing surplus + incoming/new capacity + RE options to cover the first few decommissions.

Demand has been stagnant for a decade. No rush!

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@hawiknowledge1 Under the current market design, Medupi + Kusile are just as entitled as any IPP to sign a PPA.

They can also lock in a price for 25yrs, and insulate themselves from cheaper alternatives that may emerge over their lifespan. SA's already signed plants for x2 their estimated LCOE.

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@hawiknowledge1 Yep, that's exactly my argument. If solar or wind is cheaper, install it! There'll come a time to worry about resiliency issues but that's still some way off.

Problem: the ultra-low bids you refer to still have not translated into firm bids that beat the incumbents here in SA.

[Harald @haraldoswin]

@hawiknowledge1 @CyrilRamaphosa I share your suspicion 😁

They've invested a great deal of time and money so some inertia is inevitable. In any event, they can also see the deal is going nowhere slowly. SA is all the better that you have spoken up during JZ's calamitous tenure.

[Harald @haraldoswin]

The main, main guy, Monsieur #14 Dlamini! Shot my brother. 🤙 https://t.co/vNr09bKVk1

[Muhle Dlamini @dlamini_14]

@haraldoswin happy Birthday nincumpoop!!!

[Mgarimbe Yamela Official @YamelaOfficial]

@haraldoswin Yeeeesssss!!!😂😂😂

[Harald @haraldoswin]

All-in-all, a solid team can chop R30-35 Billion in costs over the next year.

It won't be easy, people will lose jobs, but the incumbent leaders must decide: pain of discipline or pain of collapse?

It's bigger than Eskom now. SA is in serious trouble if this company conks out.

[Harald @haraldoswin]

15) Eskom needs to mothball what it can.

Recent research suggests that as much as R12,5 Bil can be saved by decommissioning plants that are surplus to requirements. That's Grootvlei, Hendrina & Komati (~1.5K jobs).

It must mothball as much of its CAPEX program as it possible!

[Harald @haraldoswin]

14) Eskom needs to aggressively collect municipal arrears.

Munic debt's increased 7-fold in 5 years. R3.4 Bil lost in 2017! Eskom must demand prepayment & then fulfill munic maintenance.

Munics are being looted and need urgent restructure. Eskom & @DWS_RSA are owed R10 Bil each

[Harald @haraldoswin]

13) Eskom needs to lay off a lot of people and freeze salaries.

Its wage bill has increased 85% in real terms over the last decade. It's gone from 32,674 employees (2007/8) to 47,658 employees (2017/18), with zero growth in power sales.

Avg wage in 2017 is R58050 per month! 😳

[Harald @haraldoswin]

Eskom's coal inventory levels are also *much* higher than necessary.

It only needs to hold a month's worth of stock in reserve. However it now holds 71 days worth and this is only increasing atm.

Stop. Buying. Coal!

[Harald @haraldoswin]

12) Review ALL coal supply agreements with a fine-toothed comb.

Eskom buys less coal than it did in 2010, but somehow Primary Energy expenditure has *doubled* in real terms since then.

In 2012, Eskom purchased coal for R182.90/ton on avg.
In 2017, after Anoj Singh? R424/ton!