@michael_wiebe Hard to answer without knowing who is being taxed…
Any answer between (utility value of $1 for poor)/(utility value of $1 on taxed) and 1 seems somewhat reasonable.
@ImNotOwned It’s kind of surprising though, because Trump was more responsive to public opinion in the past (e.g., family separations). I read that Trump is starting to get uncomfortable with the optics of this stuff, but I guess Miller has too much sway at this point?
REMINDER. “To all ICE officers: You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. Anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop you or tries to obstruct you is committing a felony. You have immunity to perform your duties, and no one—no city official, no state official, no illegal alien, no leftist agitator or domestic insurrectionist—can prevent you from fulfilling your legal obligations and duties. The Department of Justice has made clear that if officials cross that line into obstruction, into criminal conspiracy against the United States or against ICE officers, then they will face justice.” @StephenM
In the past, many used to say "the US is saying it is democracy but it is oil". This time, it is the opposite. Trump says it is oil, but it is not. (Probably Rubio told him this to convince him.) In the best case, $30bn in gross revenue a year for Venezuela (see thread-need to pay debt, interest, imports from that). Even if the US were to steal it all (impossible) it is a trivial sum of money for the US, 0.1% of GDP, more or less what NVIDIA generates in one quarter. This could never justify the huge political risk involved. You need to add that the US is now a net exporter, so it benefits from higher prices, not lower ones.
@alt_ccc@MakeUSAVAT@MattBruenig@ZohranKMamdani No one’s effective average tax rate is anywhere near 50%. Adding another couple of perectantage points to the top marginal rate isn’t going to move the needle much in that regard.
@jasonfurman I’m all for local policy makers trying to experiment with these kinds of things. Some industries are strange & work in ways that are difficult to model (not sure this is one tho). But fed politics move too slowly to course correct, esp. if groups fight hard for the new status quo
@jasonfurman I agree. But it’s not clear which type of popularity is most important for winning elections. If anything, ex-post seems more relevant (or at least consistent with your example of the Biden checks).
@jasonfurman I’m actually skeptical of this claim. Nixon did price controls and they were very unpopular. It seems price controls are popular until their (predictable) consequences are realized.