Top Tweets for #Fridayreport
#FridayReport
Shorts are printing big. π
Everything continues to unfold according to plan.
Our shorts remain heavily in profit, with:
β
ONDO short still open.
β
TRX short still open.
β
SPX short still open.
β
BTC shorts continue to perform extremely well.
## Bitcoin Outlook
In the short term, I believe there is a good chance that we see a relief rally toward the 67k-$68k region.
However, this changes absolutely nothing regarding my broader thesis.
I will NOT be closing my shorts there.
Instead, I plan to increase my short exposure in that area if the market gives me the opportunity.
The bigger picture remains unchanged:
I still do not believe that the final bottom is in.
## Spot Position
I have also opened a small BTC spot position at an average entry of 60k.
My initial take-profit target is 66.5k.
If we fail to reach that level, I simply plan to keep this position open for the long term and avoid realizing a loss.
The position size is intentionally small and does not change my bearish macro view.
## Equities
The #SPX short remains one of my highest-conviction positions.
I continue to believe that the market is significantly underestimating the downside risks ahead.
The structure remains weak, and I expect much larger moves once the next phase begins.
## Individual Positions
#ONDO
The short remains open.
I have not taken profits yet, and I continue to expect further downside.
#TRX
No changes.
The position remains open and the thesis remains intact.
## Final Thoughts
Many people are already calling for a new bull market.
Many people believe the bottom is in.
I disagree.
A short-term pump does not invalidate the macro thesis.
Patience remains the key.
I would rather wait for the market to come to my levels than chase price and get trapped by temporary rallies.
The biggest opportunities are still ahead.
IMPORTANT: #FridayReport
#FridayReport
## Market Overview
Another week has passed, and our broader thesis remains unchanged.
Despite several short-term rallies and attempts to convince participants that the bottom is already in, we continue to believe that the market has not yet established its final low.
The recent price action is exactly what we expected: volatility, sharp moves in both directions, and increasing confusion among market participants.
Our positioning remains patient and focused on the bigger picture rather than short-term noise.
---
## Current Positioning
All active short positions remain in profit, and our overall bearish thesis continues to play out according to plan.
We are not interested in trading every 2-3% move. The objective is to capture the larger market phase and avoid getting distracted by short-term fluctuations.
At this stage, our focus remains on protecting capital, staying disciplined, and letting the market structure unfold.
---
## Bitcoin Structure
Our expectation remains that Bitcoin will continue to spend time building a broad sideways range between approximately 58k and 70k.
This range is likely to create:
β’ Short squeezes that force late bears out of positions.
β’ Long traps that convince traders the bottom is already in.
β’ Sharp moves in both directions designed to create maximum confusion.
The longer the market spends in this range, the larger the eventual move out of it is likely to be.
For now, we view this consolidation as part of the process rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
---
## Capitulation Thesis
One of the most important things we continue to monitor is market behavior during periods of stress.
Historically, major bottoms are formed when market participants finally give up and begin selling at significant losses.
While we are starting to see more signs of pain in the market, we do not believe that a true capitulation event has occurred yet.
Our view remains that the final bottom has not been established.
---
## Long-Term Accumulation Zone
Our preferred Bitcoin accumulation zone remains unchanged:
45k β 55k
The lower end of this range, around $45k, represents what we consider a potential capitulation zone and one of the most attractive long-term opportunities of this cycle.
This does not mean we are attempting to predict the exact bottom to the dollar.
Instead, we are identifying a high-probability zone where risk-reward becomes increasingly favorable.
Should price move into this region, we intend to aggressively build long-term exposure.
---
## Macro Environment
The macro backdrop remains difficult for risk assets.
Economic growth continues to slow, uncertainty remains elevated, and liquidity conditions remain fragile.
As a result, we continue to approach the market cautiously and avoid becoming overly aggressive until the broader structure changes.
---
## Looking Ahead
Our long-term targets remain unchanged.
Once a final bottom is established and accumulation is complete, we continue to expect a new expansion phase with Bitcoin eventually moving toward:
160k β 200k+
Until then:
β’ Stay patient.
β’ Stay disciplined.
β’ Respect the market structure.
β’ Do not confuse temporary rallies with trend reversals.
The market will provide opportunities.
Our job is simply to be prepared when they arrive.
See you next Friday.

#FridayReport
## Market Overview
Another week has passed, and our broader thesis remains unchanged.
Despite several short-term rallies and attempts to convince participants that the bottom is already in, we continue to believe that the market has not yet established its final low.
The recent price action is exactly what we expected: volatility, sharp moves in both directions, and increasing confusion among market participants.
Our positioning remains patient and focused on the bigger picture rather than short-term noise.
---
## Current Positioning
All active short positions remain in profit, and our overall bearish thesis continues to play out according to plan.
We are not interested in trading every 2-3% move. The objective is to capture the larger market phase and avoid getting distracted by short-term fluctuations.
At this stage, our focus remains on protecting capital, staying disciplined, and letting the market structure unfold.
---
## Bitcoin Structure
Our expectation remains that Bitcoin will continue to spend time building a broad sideways range between approximately 58k and 70k.
This range is likely to create:
β’ Short squeezes that force late bears out of positions.
β’ Long traps that convince traders the bottom is already in.
β’ Sharp moves in both directions designed to create maximum confusion.
The longer the market spends in this range, the larger the eventual move out of it is likely to be.
For now, we view this consolidation as part of the process rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
---
## Capitulation Thesis
One of the most important things we continue to monitor is market behavior during periods of stress.
Historically, major bottoms are formed when market participants finally give up and begin selling at significant losses.
While we are starting to see more signs of pain in the market, we do not believe that a true capitulation event has occurred yet.
Our view remains that the final bottom has not been established.
---
## Long-Term Accumulation Zone
Our preferred Bitcoin accumulation zone remains unchanged:
45k β 55k
The lower end of this range, around $45k, represents what we consider a potential capitulation zone and one of the most attractive long-term opportunities of this cycle.
This does not mean we are attempting to predict the exact bottom to the dollar.
Instead, we are identifying a high-probability zone where risk-reward becomes increasingly favorable.
Should price move into this region, we intend to aggressively build long-term exposure.
---
## Macro Environment
The macro backdrop remains difficult for risk assets.
Economic growth continues to slow, uncertainty remains elevated, and liquidity conditions remain fragile.
As a result, we continue to approach the market cautiously and avoid becoming overly aggressive until the broader structure changes.
---
## Looking Ahead
Our long-term targets remain unchanged.
Once a final bottom is established and accumulation is complete, we continue to expect a new expansion phase with Bitcoin eventually moving toward:
160k β 200k+
Until then:
β’ Stay patient.
β’ Stay disciplined.
β’ Respect the market structure.
β’ Do not confuse temporary rallies with trend reversals.
The market will provide opportunities.
Our job is simply to be prepared when they arrive.
See you next Friday.

Important to know:
The #FridayReport will come every Friday it will be the overall text from the week and is updating the plan week by week.
#FridayReport
Market Overview
This week continued to support our broader market thesis.
While many participants remain convinced that the bottom is already in, current market structure, liquidity positioning, and macro conditions suggest otherwise. The market continues to behave exactly as expected, and our overall outlook remains unchanged.
At the moment, we do not believe that the final bottom has been established.
## Current Positioning
Our primary focus remains on the short side of the market.
The shorts from higher levels continue to perform well, and all active short positions remain in profit.
We are not interested in fighting the current structure or forcing long positions simply because price has already moved lower.
Our objective is not to catch every bounce.
Our objective is to position ourselves alongside the dominant trend and allow probabilities to play out.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader bearish environment.
While short-term squeezes remain possible, especially around major liquidity zones, we currently view these as opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Many traders are attempting to front-run the bottom.
Historically, this is where most market participants lose money.
Our view remains simple:
The bottom is not confirmed until the market proves it.
Macro Environment
The macro backdrop remains challenging for risk assets.
Economic growth continues to slow across major economies, while uncertainty remains elevated.
Markets continue to react heavily to macro events, liquidity conditions, and monetary policy expectations.
This environment favors patience and disciplined positioning rather than aggressive risk-taking.
Accumulation Plan
Our preferred long-term Bitcoin accumulation zone remains between $45,000 and $55,000.
The lower end of this range represents what we consider a potential capitulation zone or also The Black Rock Bottom
If price reaches these levels, we plan to aggressively build long-term exposure.
This does not mean we are trying to identify the exact market bottom down to the exact dollar.
Instead, we are preparing for a high-probability opportunity should the market offer it.
Risk Management
The market rewards patience.
There is no need to force trades.
There is no need to chase price.
There is no need to predict every candle.
The objective is simple:
* Protect capital.
* Follow structure.
* Stay objective.
* Execute when probability is on your side.
Final Thoughts
Everything continues to unfold according to plan.
We remain patient.
We remain disciplined.
And most importantly, we continue to let the market dictate our decisions rather than emotions.
See you next Friday with bigβ¦πΈ

#FridayReport
Market Overview
This week continued to support our broader market thesis.
While many participants remain convinced that the bottom is already in, current market structure, liquidity positioning, and macro conditions suggest otherwise. The market continues to behave exactly as expected, and our overall outlook remains unchanged.
At the moment, we do not believe that the final bottom has been established.
## Current Positioning
Our primary focus remains on the short side of the market.
The shorts from higher levels continue to perform well, and all active short positions remain in profit.
We are not interested in fighting the current structure or forcing long positions simply because price has already moved lower.
Our objective is not to catch every bounce.
Our objective is to position ourselves alongside the dominant trend and allow probabilities to play out.
Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader bearish environment.
While short-term squeezes remain possible, especially around major liquidity zones, we currently view these as opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Many traders are attempting to front-run the bottom.
Historically, this is where most market participants lose money.
Our view remains simple:
The bottom is not confirmed until the market proves it.
Macro Environment
The macro backdrop remains challenging for risk assets.
Economic growth continues to slow across major economies, while uncertainty remains elevated.
Markets continue to react heavily to macro events, liquidity conditions, and monetary policy expectations.
This environment favors patience and disciplined positioning rather than aggressive risk-taking.
Accumulation Plan
Our preferred long-term Bitcoin accumulation zone remains between $45,000 and $55,000.
The lower end of this range represents what we consider a potential capitulation zone or also The Black Rock Bottom
If price reaches these levels, we plan to aggressively build long-term exposure.
This does not mean we are trying to identify the exact market bottom down to the exact dollar.
Instead, we are preparing for a high-probability opportunity should the market offer it.
Risk Management
The market rewards patience.
There is no need to force trades.
There is no need to chase price.
There is no need to predict every candle.
The objective is simple:
* Protect capital.
* Follow structure.
* Stay objective.
* Execute when probability is on your side.
Final Thoughts
Everything continues to unfold according to plan.
We remain patient.
We remain disciplined.
And most importantly, we continue to let the market dictate our decisions rather than emotions.
See you next Friday with bigβ¦πΈ

Code-reviews π¨πΏβπ» and working on the #fridayreport before bolting out for datenight π₯° #buildinpublic #EoY https://t.co/ynVw2qPfgg
It's over! The #FINAL ARG FR (@COVID19Actuary #FridayReport - what did you think I meant?) is finished, and now available ICYMI.
We didn't expect it to run this long, but it went into extra time, and even penalties. After nearly 3 years though, the final whistle is blown.
Our FINAL #FridayReport COVID update is now available, featuring:
- Autumn boosters: slow recent progress
- Pfizer vaccine authorised for under 5s
- breakthrough infections give enduring protection for the vaccinated
- US hospitalisations by vaccine status
https://t.co/uSmbU9CKmv
@COVID19actuary Thanks to everyone for all the hard work thatβs gone into producing the #FridayReport Letβs home we donβt have another pandemic for some considerable time.
Our FINAL #FridayReport COVID update is now available, featuring:
- Autumn boosters: slow recent progress
- Pfizer vaccine authorised for under 5s
- breakthrough infections give enduring protection for the vaccinated
- US hospitalisations by vaccine status
https://t.co/uSmbU9CKmv
@BobDeed @COVID19actuary Thank you!
Itβs the last regular #FridayReport providing a general covid roundup. We will still release ad-hoc blogs and bulletins where our volunteers feel they have something to contribute. But weβre no longer committing to scheduled updates.
While this isnβt the end for the ARG it is the end for the #FridayReport. We hope this was a useful resource.
Sincere thanks to @john_actuary and @AdeleGroyer for this final edition and @longevitymatt, @DanRyanCoios, @NicolaMedical and Matthew Edwards for all your contributions.
Our FINAL #FridayReport COVID update is now available, featuring:
- Autumn boosters: slow recent progress
- Pfizer vaccine authorised for under 5s
- breakthrough infections give enduring protection for the vaccinated
- US hospitalisations by vaccine status
https://t.co/uSmbU9CKmv
ICYMI, or just want to forget about the β½οΈorπ(I certainly do!), then the latest @COVID19Actuary #FridayReport is out, with the usual hand-crafted selection of COVID news, data, and this month some dreadful chocolate related puns to finish the bulletin off.
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumn boosters: nearly 14m now boosted
- effectiveness of bivalent vaccines
- increased risk of diabetes after COVID infection
- Long COVID and overall long-term sickness numbers
https://t.co/SqgByJbUQk
New #FridayReport from @COVID19actuary covers seasonal boosters, vaccine effectiveness, diabetes risk, long COVID, and flu. Latest data on infections, admissions and excess deaths is included. And might chocolate increase your chances of winning a Nobel prize?
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumn boosters: nearly 14m now boosted
- effectiveness of bivalent vaccines
- increased risk of diabetes after COVID infection
- Long COVID and overall long-term sickness numbers
https://t.co/SqgByJbUQk
Thank Crunchie it's the latest #FridayReport from @COVID19actuary, with the usual miscellany of COVID related stories, news and data, along with a couple of flu related items too.
1/
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumn boosters: nearly 14m now boosted
- effectiveness of bivalent vaccines
- increased risk of diabetes after COVID infection
- Long COVID and overall long-term sickness numbers
https://t.co/SqgByJbUQk
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumn boosters: nearly 14m now boosted
- effectiveness of bivalent vaccines
- increased risk of diabetes after COVID infection
- Long COVID and overall long-term sickness numbers
https://t.co/SqgByJbUQk
Cont'd: This week's progress:
π product chat w/ @csteinlehner w/ interesting TODO's+ideas https://t.co/w1KphCR2GV
π chats w/ investors for intros to their deep-tech teams to learn how they manage intel + progress. π§
#buildinpublic #fridayreport #TWiFT
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