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Friday Recap Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH) AU: $4,344 ($4,427) -- 22% from ATH ($5,608) AG: $64 ($66) -- 47% from ATH ($121) HUI: 813 (832) -- 17% from ATH (986) DXY: 99 (99) S&P 500: 7,656 (7,718) -- 2% from ATH (7816) 10-Year: 4.9% (4.7%) The big news this week was higher long-term interest rates. The 10-year jumped from 4.7% to 4.9%, and is close to reaching the dreaded 5% level. This was bad news for gold, which prefers lower rates, closing down nearly $100 to $4,344. Silver followed, dropping to $64. Lower metal prices are what I expected before the end of November. In fact, I think we go lower, perhaps retesting the July lows, or getting close. I have not bought any gold/silver miners in September. I'm waiting for sub $4,200, which I expect to see. This will be an excellent buy-the-dip opportunity. In fact, it might be the last time to buy below $4,500. Once we get to Q4, I expect gold and silver to rip into year-end. If we don't end the year above $4,800, then I'll be disappointed. The Fed is expected to raise rates next week, with the current odds at 85%. I'm a bit surprised by this outcome. My take is that the Fed is foolish to raise rates with so many economic hazards at hand. They are likely going to trigger a market sell-off and an economic decline. Most analysts and economists think the economy is healthy enough to raise rates, but I think the Fed is playing with fire. The likely outcome will be negative, leading to rate cuts. We have reached the point where the debt doom loop shows its face. The Fed only has two choices, both of which will cause the other to get worse. It's a classic Catch-22. If they raise rates, they hurt the economy. If they stimulate the economy, they cause inflation. Pick your poison. Ironically, they only have one choice: stimulate the economy until inflation destroys the bond market. We live in an era of insanity, so they probably will raise rates because of political pressure. If Warsh leaves rates unchanged, how does he defend that choice? He can't tell the truth and say the economy is weak. So, he has to raise. This is good news for gold. Initially, gold won't like higher rates. But once the economy begins to crack, gold demand will intensify. Gold likes uncertainty and fear. That's coming. We are close. Raising rates will only spur on that outcome. As a gold bull, I'll be disappointed if he leaves rates unchanged. The only chart that matters is the S&P 500, and the only levels for the S&P that matter are a new ATH (7816) and the 200 DMA (7200). What comes next? That's all that matters. Everything else is just noise. As gold/silver investors, we need to drop below the 200 DMA. Until that happens, all we can do is wait. Below that level, the battle between gold and the S&P begins. If the S&P cannot get back above that level, then gold wins. If it can, then the S&P lives to fight another day. I hope that makes sense to you, because that's all that matters.