Top Tweets for #Gaev
📊 Prediction #6: GA to Trump (30-Oct) 🇺🇸
This is a lazy analysis, as it does not provide margins. GA, however, does make some analysis very convenient - they break out 2020 voting results by voting method.
Instead of normal county-level Trump-Biden results, Georgia breaks out the historical Trump votes by VBM, IPEV, EV. So extrapolating the current percentages, I got the following:
📈 Early vote shift:
2020 🔵 52.9% - 🔴 47.1%
2024 🔵 47.7% - 🔴 52.3%
2020-2024 Change: 🔴 10.3%
The base case is 🔴+R 10.3% shift. But the call isn't as easy as it seems!
Most of the shift is driven by a drop in VBM margins, with rural countries not having enough population to shift the IPEV significantly by themselves. So we have to look deeper into *who* these people in these counties are voting for. Else, how do I know that all these missing VBM people won't just show up on ED?
And to that end, two factors came into play.
1. Increased rural enthusiasm is a signal of Republican enthusiasm in general - or, as @TonerousHyus put it, aligning the Trump Republicans with Kemp Republicans more. (Kemp defeated Abrams by 8 points in 2022)
2. I did not weigh any of the above analysis by race, which should be worth 2 percentage points or so in the final margins.
Normally, I'd be comfortable giving this at least 1 point margin. But I have PTSD from 2020 when Georgia was called to the left of Florida. So I'll leave this as "no margin specified."
Prior predictions:
Prediction #1: 21-Oct, FL goes to Trump double digits. Prediction #2: 24-Oct, NC goes to Trump by 4%. Prediction #3: 24-Oct, NV goes to Trump.
Prediction #4: 28-Oct, PA goes to Trump.
Prediction #5: 29-Oct, AZ goes to Trump by 2%.
Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #4 10.30.24
@datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update.
#FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV
#GAEV - @toneroushyus has made his call official yesterday as the white v AA vote continues to show no evidence that the gap is going to close. Today was no different.
https://t.co/ml3gMRqXEQ
Georgia IPEV Day 14 Update
7:30pm - 194k voted
Cumulative:
White - 59.3%
Black - 25.9%
Turnout Gap White|Black 52.8|40.2 [-12.6%]
Turnout Gap White|Black 52.8|39.7 [-13.1%]
Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #3
@datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update.
#FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV
#GAEV - @toneroushyus has made his call official today as the white v AA vote continues to show no evidence that the gap is going to close.
https://t.co/hLzN7aSlSZ
Official call: Trump will win Georgia by at least 3% (Projection is Trump+5.4%)
Math and Assumptions:
- Trump gets between Kemp and Walker margins county/county
Final projected electorate after election day:
White - 63.7%
Black - 22.2%
Racial Turnout gap Final [-21.9%]
![TonerousHyus's tweet photo. Official call: Trump will win Georgia by at least 3% (Projection is Trump+5.4%)
Math and Assumptions:
- Trump gets between Kemp and Walker margins county/county
Final projected electorate after election day:
White - 63.7%
Black - 22.2%
Racial Turnout gap Final [-21.9%] https://t.co/vdRnpsd9aw](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga_OjHfXIAEceFY.jpg)
Personal request for @DataRepublican @athein1 @TonerousHyus @MichaelPruser
tag your state analysis with #FLEV #NVEV #GAEV #AZEV #PAEV #NCEV #MIEV #WIEV to see if it becomes easier to sort your posts and create a narrative going forward.
#GAEV
@TonerousHyus has been constantly updated Georgia with a focus on comparison of White v AA turnout. The trend so far has been a drop in AA voting from historically 30+% to 26%. Also, the rurals have been leading turnout https://t.co/G0LmxlJA8a
Georgia IPEV Day 11 Final
7:30pm - 162k voted
Cumulative:
White - 59.7%
Black - 25.9%
Same ol Same ol bad news for Dems in Georgia
@RuthElleson @TheatreWindsor Looking forward to Jenny Seagrove potting imaginary balls in the far corner. #Gaev
Le esperan a los gestores de convivencia de @GobiernoBTA @SeguridadBOG @personeriabta #GAEV y a @PoliciaBogota unos días tensos y difíciles. Sus familias los esperan en casa. A todos ellos gracias por velar por la seguridad y convivencia en circunstancias tan adversas .
Standbeeld voor clubicoon Leo Halle wordt onthuld voor eerste thuiswedstrijd GA Eagles. ''We zijn heel erg trots". #gaev #kowet @NietteKraken @GAEagles #eenbeeldvoorleo
https://t.co/X2N1IBWU2l
Sam Beukema opent tegen FC Utrecht het doelpuntenbal van GA Eagles dit seizoen: 'Deze was knap lelijk.' #gaev #kowet @GAEagles @fcutrecht
https://t.co/wESgOxVIQ7
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