Top Tweets for #PostAnalysis
#PostAnalysis of the Budget highlights and revenue raising measures for the FY 2024/25.
Join our Senior Programs Officer @jkinuthia08 and other panelists as they unpack the Budget Estimates and the Finance Bill on @citizentvkenya.
Hosted by @SamGituku.
Here is the link to register for the Boston Meetup
August 15. You MUST register to get link and access to the recording of this event hosted by myself along with @TaPlot
https://t.co/b7g3ILvuEb
#stocks #postanalysis #tradeview #BostonMeetup
Save the date. Next Boston Meetup will be August 15th 7-9pm EST. @TaPlot and I will be providing feedback on trades to help people accelerate their learning curve. Details below on how to submit a trade for review.
Borrow assumptions and ideas but own the solutions by backing them with data and logic. Solutions you own have much more impact than the solutions you borrow.
#Deepdive #PostAnalysis
Real trading often gets concealed behind good-looking charts and quotes. @markminervini @Qullamaggie or @PradeepBonde would trade the same charts as you in the Indian markets, but their execution and post-trade analysis are what set them apart.
Here's what I learnt and did:
Why - I was disappointed with my performance in 2020. By sticking to an 8% stop-loss limit, it reduced my starter position size significantly. Additionally, partially selling into strength left me with single-digit positions that hardly impacted my portfolio.
What - MAE and MFE are two important ratios in post-analysis that can help optimize your stop-losses and exit strategies. MAE indicates the maximum amount of price movement against you during your trade, while MFE indicates the maximum amount of price movement in your favour during your trade.
For example, if you entered a trade at 100, and the price dropped to 97 before jumping back up to a high of 110, your MAE is 3 and your MFE is 10.
How - I went over all of my trades from 2020 and calculated for MAE and MFE. Then, I marked the points where I got in, set my stop loss, and made my exits on 5 min and daily timeframes.
Journal Insight - I noticed that more than 85% of the times, if the price dropped below 3% of my buy price, it would hit my 8% stop loss. Even if I had set my stop loss at 3% instead of 8%, my win rate wouldn't have been any different. I realized that I had been taking on unnecessary risk by using a higher stop loss percentage or entering breakouts too late.
Most of my big winners were both risk-free and profitable immediately. This was not because the chart looked better than the others (in fact, it was often my least hopeful trade), but rather because of favourable market forces. However, I couldn't trail with a large position size to have a sizable impact on my portfolio.
My Improvements on SL
• My average stop loss (SL) ranges between 1% - 2.5%. I use a higher SL (max 4%) depending on the WHY of the trade like IPOs or earnings BO, or for lower priced stocks (<Rs 50).
• Breaking the day's low often triggers even deeper stop losses, as buyers have failed to keep the price up on the range expansion day. This helped me prevent my capital from getting stuck in losing trades. Nearly all of my stop losses occur on the same day.
• My win rate has stayed the same (between 35%-65%) because I'm still taking the same trades, but with more efficiency.
• Reduced trade risk and increased size. ( 2% SL with 0.5% risk = 25% size VS 8% SL with 1% risk = 12.5% size)
• My R-multiples are 4x faster (5R at 10% versus 40%). Even after partially selling at 3-6R, I can trail a larger position. This is a significant advantage in a bearish or choppy market.
My Improvements on Entry
• I noticed that most breakouts I entered had a tight (NR) or even a negative day before it actually broke out. I started buying earlier, rather than waiting for a swing high or a trendline to break. I began with the previous day's high and have gradually improved to buying opening range highs.
• This also helped me get off the screen and start my office work faster.
Caveats-
• Being mindful of liquidity and slippage is crucial when I'm trading at my size. I don't have more than 500 stocks in my trading universe in India.
• Tightening my stop loss and entering trades faster takes some skill to execute properly. It took me about 3 months (~75 trades) to get comfortable with it, and I still have a lot to improve on. But no matter how you trade, having good execution skills is a must.
• I tend to get whipsawed more and miss an entry when the stock actually starts moving. However, I'm willing to make this sacrifice because it has optimized my RR metrics more with a bigger size, which has been way more profitable for me.
Takeaways-
• The journal analysis I did wasn't anything fancy. It was basic first principle thinking, number crunching in Excel, and diving deep into charts. It doesn't depend on the market, it depends on you. But it's a grind, just like trading is supposed to be, in order to find your "flow". This way, you'll come up with insights and actions that are a part of who you are, rather than just taking bookish shortcuts.
• You get paid a lot more for being right first, and in trading you often don’t need to wait for consensus. Entering on trend lines, patterns, and indicators require confirmations which increases trade risk because the entry point is further from the move's initiation point and ideal stop location.
Many Fintwits post charts because it is an easy way to gain followers and retweets. However, the true value of charting is not in serving as an accurate predictive tool, but rather in facilitating visual representation to aid in making better-informed decisions. Don't trade solely based on trendline breaks or indicator triggers. Although trading is a game of probabilities, it's important to consider that there are better analysis techniques available that can help identify lower risk, higher probability trades within the same chart setups.
• Most importantly, do not pass off my insights as your own. They may or may not work for you.
Take an unbiased deep dive in your journal, analysing it at a granular level with specific details. Forget or challenge every rule or theory that you have learned, and then rebuild them again from scratch.
I'm sure that you'll see a significant improvement in your performance. This post only scratches the surface.
Still time to register for our annual Rose and Thorn Meetup Session tomorrow 7p EST....some great speakers will share their best/worst and the important lessons to take forward. Valuable info! #stocks #postanalysis #bosmeetup
Join us for the first Boston IBD Meetup of 2023. This Annual Rose and Thorn will feature speakers from different IBD Meetups across country. You must RSVP as seating is limited....Go to https://t.co/OsO1JRZvmt and search Boston IBD Meetup. #stocks #postanalysis $spy $qqq
Join us for the first Boston IBD Meetup of 2023. This Annual Rose and Thorn will feature speakers from different IBD Meetups across country. You must RSVP as seating is limited....Go to https://t.co/OsO1JRZvmt and search Boston IBD Meetup. #stocks #postanalysis $spy $qqq
#Postanalysis is one of the most important things do in trading.
Series 16 & Series 17 have come to an end and before I started Series 18, I have some questions that need answering.
When in doubt? I write.
#trading #StockMarket #stockmarketcrash #Stock
#PostAnalysis:
Likes ❤️ - 1.7k
RT 🔁 - 565
Comment 💬 -258
#Conclusion: Over 1.7k Lagosians like Governor @jidesanwoolu RE-ELECTED for 2nd term in office!!
cc: @Mr_JAGs @gboyegaakosile @gbenga_omo @followlasg
RE-ELECT - @jidesanwoolu
Did you have this feeling in your trading recently?
A. Nope, I always blame my broker
B. No, I don't make mistakes in my trading
C. Yes, and these moments are the best as they allow me to grow and improve
#urbanforex #forex #trading #tradingmemes #postanalysis #selfreflection
Most of my decisions have been based on #Postanalysis of my trading.
Your Trading Journal would be the best trading book in the world.
Nothing gives you more insight than your own trading.
#trading #stocks #Stock #Trader #StockMarket #StocksToWatch #Markets #nifty50
August is done. Time to download that trade log and review the good,bad and the ugly! Hard to do but enlightening. #postAnalysis
Great Bos Meetup on Tuesday... we all learned a great detail from studying RIMM from 2003-05. Even if you missed the initial move in a big winner, still stalk an entry as WON showed us. #stocks #postanalysis $BB #study
The more you move your SL will lead to more probability of your trade failure!!
So never move your SL once you decide!!(there is always some hope story behind SL adjustment,never do that)
#lessonfrommytradingjournal
#Postanalysis
When in choppy markets, slow your trading activity by using the mkt hours to study/take notes on the greatest winning stocks from past year and previous mkt cycles. Amazing what you can learn....and avoid the chop #stocks #postanalysis #qqq #spy
My gains were burned due to complacency.
#postanalysis
Conceptual Goals (improvemt) are much better than $ or % goals. Improvement areas, such as ranking quality of decisions, if done well will lead to $. Goals solely focused on $$ or % gain just lead to pressure, stress and mistakes. #stocks #postanalysis #qqq #spy
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