Top Tweets for #TerminalRate
#FedDoneHiking declared @BloombergRadio earlier morning.
#UBSSpeaker affected #Germany?
Respected #BondGuru said #MayWasLastHike!
#TerminalRate Feb24
Above 5% #SeptemberFedFunds futures positioners.
#CommercialsVsLargeSpeculators futures.
#CacophonyBuyTreasuries on milk-carton.
#NoHikeNov23Cacophony
Decidedly unhelpful?
Stoking ire #Inflationistas!
Confident #Technicians alongside. #TerminalRate 5.455% Feb24!
Sep24 now above 5% at 5.055%.
About to #DoublePrint close < 4330 $SPX.
Acceptance.
Prelude 4200 test.
On The @Investopedia Express, #Hollywood is ๐ฅ๐ฐ amid dual strikes and the threat of A.I. - @brianstelter explains why this may not have end well, and what's next for #media & #entertainment . Plus, the @federalreserve nears the #terminalrate.
Tune in: https://t.co/Za1oGmjfCP

5 Months of Data points later....
CPI down, Shelter still holding 0.6 (7.2% annual) lagging indicator.
We are actually way past Terminal Rate!!
Definite pause even for Hawks
#inflation #FED #InterestRate #TerminalRate

CPI collapsing. Negative M/M despite shelter at +0.8 (9.6% annualized). Shelter = 35% of CPI!
As soon as shelter rolls over, CPI will be deep in negative territory for many months.
@federalreserve #CPI #Inflation #BullRun



Bank #Indonesia raised its reverse repo rate by 225bp so far, compared with the #FEDโs 450bp of #rate hikes.
With #inflation rising at a relatively benign 5.28% YoY in January, the #BOI #Terminalrate may peak at 6.0% for this cycle.

The core PCE index rose 0.3% last month, lowering the 12-month inflation rate to 4.4% (vs. 4.7% in Nov and 5.1% in Oct)
+2.9% at a three-month annualized rate (the lowest since Jan '21)
+3.7% at a six-month annualized rate (the lowest since Mar '21)
https://t.co/aqolhkuvrB

IDK of #FFR will top out at a #TerminalRate of only 4.9%, but I do know an actual deteriorating #employment + increasing #unemployment (#ContinuingClaims) genuine #recession will begin months afterward

๐บ๐ธ Fed
Will the Fed hike 50 bps in H1 2023?
๐ https://t.co/GTvcwBGDHh
h/t @BofAML #markets #Fed #FederalReserve #Fedfunds #rates
#interestrates #interestrate #monetarypolicy #inflation #cpi

No
The #TerminalRate will NOT be 5.25%
Nor 5.50%
If we're lucky it'll be 6.5%
Someone's gonna cry, #Fed'll ease, all that sidelined #M2 will just keep pumping up inflation, #FFR will get kicked up again
I may be wrong about a REAL #recession in 1H24, 1st cut could be delayed๐คทโโ๏ธ

MMM dives into the Fed chiefโs press conference, where talk of QT and balance-sheet runoff was still absent.
#rates #hawks #inflation #higherforlonger #terminalrate #stocks #bonds #debt #services #shetler #housing
https://t.co/0udaXWaOef
To the extent that as we approach a roughly 5% #TerminalRate, markets recognize that the #Fed will likely need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time, these rate cuts could be priced out of #markets, incrementally tightening conditions.
Federal Reserve releases FOMC statement from December meeting; Fed raises rates 50 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50% https://t.co/hMhSVElJEj #FOMC #FederalReserve #ratehike #interestrates #fedfunds #terminalrate #CPI #inflation #labor #ukraine #economy #stockmarket
#MarketBriefing: Hoping for a monetary policy carrot $SPY $QQQ $DIA $TNX $RUT https://t.co/EGJ74ahEqr #FOMC #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy #ratehike #inflation #JeromePowell #CPI #Oil #terminalrate #economy #stockmarket

As long as #traders feel confident #TerminalRate will be under 5% - implying less than a percentage point of increases to come after this month - markets are likely to get calmer still, chart @GarfieldR1966

Breaking: U.S. interest-rate futures prices point to peak fed policy rate next year approximately 5% by May 2023. #Fed #FederalReserve #terminalrate Fed Chair Powell sees Terminal interest rate ~5.02%. "Somewhat Higher"#markets #geopolitics
Not my territory but the Fed should raise the terminal rate forecast above 4% to 5% for mid-2023 and this to continue into the rest of decade, 2026 for a dip. 75 Bps they say, 100 would be bad, 125 would be the best case scenario to expedite and cut losses. Unemployment to 5%.

GOLDMAN BOOSTS FED TERMINAL RATE CALL TO 5%-5.25% RANGE.
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