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A Radical Approach to this Offseason The Pirates have a problem: we have 10 players who are arbitration eligible, and it’s going to exhaust our meager payroll to retain them all. The advocacy for re-signing Brandon Lowe and addressing persistent gaps is tin ear to the fact that there isn’t enough money to go around. Yesterday, I offered a conservative approach to the offseason, which consisted of continued growth by the rotation, improved health across the lineup, and the maturation of last year’s rookies. It’s a strategy that is probably a lot closer to what Ben Cherington is thinking than what this column is going to outline today. Who Can We Live Without in the Rotation? I’m going to start at the top and work my way down. It’s come up all week, but Mitch Keller is dead weight. The $38 million left on his contract would be much better used for other purposes. But the only way we move him is to package him with prospects. I say, get it done. The rotation is now fronted by two aces in Braxton Ashcraft and Jared Jones. People will roll eyes, but trading Paul Skenes this offseason would still bring in a massive haul of prospects to fuel the current period of competition. His arbitration-eligible salary is going to keep escalating and we aren't signing him to a long-term deal. I would specifically seek a RH outfielder and 3B/Util prospect in return, as a part of a larger haul. These two moves save the team ~$28 million next year with the goal of acquiring a left-handed #3 starter in free agency. Wilber Dotel and his 100-mph fastball slips easily into the #5 spot in the rotation behind Bubba Chandler. Ctrl + Alt + Delete on Arbitration-Eligible Players The arbitration process is where you start really questioning how much you value certain guys. Someone who was fine as a league minimum player starts to look less attractive as they start earning more. I’m not sure I would keep a good number of them, including Nick Gonzalez ($4.5M), Jared Triolo ($2.5M), Carmen Mlodzinski ($2.0M), Henry Davis ($2.0M), or Endy Rodriguez ($1.5M). That is $12.5M that could be better used investing in other needs. Trade them to replenish the team with AAA prospects and MLB-ready talent. Goodbye Bryan Reynolds I know he is a sentimental favorite, and his defense in LF last year was a high water mark, but the writing is on the wall with Bryan Reynolds. He turns 32 this winter and is unlikely to keep it up at this level. And what is ‘this level,’ anyways? Over the last five seasons, he has averaged a .780 OPS with 20 HR annually. It’s fine, really. But it isn’t can't-live-without, and if we can land a young RH outfielder in the Skenes trade outlined above, I think we could move on from his $15.2M annual salary before it starts reeking of eggs. A $55 Million Spending Spree Okay, now that I’ve gutted the team, how do we build this sucker back up? ▫️Brandon Lowe, 2B (FA) -- The easy addition is to retain Lowe at 2B. It will likely cost $18M/year over four years, and for the sake of today’s column, I say let’s do it. He solves a long-term need and is a fan favorite. ▫️Trevor Rogers, SP (FA) -- Coming off two very interesting seasons with the Orioles, Rogers enters free agency with back-to-back ~3.50 xERA seasons. He’s a left-handed starter who buoys the rotation. I like him for a three-year, $48M contract. ▫️AJ Minter, RP (FA) – As I noted the other day, Minter at 2 years/$22M gives us LH reliever to pair with Luke Weaver as 8th inning guys behind Mason Montgomery as the closer. With the remaining $8M I’d suggest grabbing a league-minimum backup catcher and a utility infielder who can backup 3B, SS and 2B. We may have some flexibility given what we get back for the arbitration-eligible players and Skenes. We could even keep somebody's favorite player. The Bottom Line 📌 Talk about a radical plan. Today I’m suggesting moving on from Keller, Reynolds and Skenes, while retaining Lowe and investing in the rotation and bullpen. This plan would install young talent received for Skenes in LF and 3B with the idea that Lonnie White Jr. and Murf Gray would also offer competition at both positions. Young talent like Konnor Griffin, Esmerlyn Valdez and Rafael Flores Jr. would be counted on to mature into formidable bats while healthy seasons from Oneil Cruz, Ryan O’Hearn and Spencer Horwitz power the team. And oh yeah, we keep our 35-HR second baseman. It’s certainly a different look ahead of Seth Hernandez, Derek Curiel and others making their appearances in future years. Drop your thoughts on this theoretical overhaul below. ⬇️