#conjunctionFallacy - Twitter Hashtag

over 1 year ago

This is a short article (5 minute read) about how the conjunction fallacy ("The Linda Problem") can compromise how we calculate and look at risk. https://t.co/7WrFSxsjK4 #Risk #TheLindaProblem #ConjunctionFallacy #MondayBlogs

GershonBenKeren's tweet photo. This is a short article (5 minute read) about how the conjunction fallacy ("The Linda Problem") can compromise how we calculate and look at risk. https://t.co/7WrFSxsjK4 #Risk #TheLindaProblem #ConjunctionFallacy #MondayBlogs https://t.co/eyfEXx9XX5

0

3

4

0

257

Psychonomic Society

@Psychonomic_Soc

over 3 years ago

Humans make predictable reasoning errors #conjunctionFallacy. A new #psynomPBR paper by @VLaughmaker Sowgol Sadeghi, Linh Tran @AaronBlaisdell shows we’re not alone —rats commit this fallacy too! Post by @PillaiRaunak https://t.co/DwYt51uTJ4

Psychonomic_Soc's tweet photo. Humans make predictable reasoning errors #conjunctionFallacy. A new #psynomPBR paper by @VLaughmaker Sowgol Sadeghi, Linh Tran @AaronBlaisdell shows we’re not alone —rats commit this fallacy too! Post by @PillaiRaunak

https://t.co/DwYt51uTJ4 https://t.co/RSzXlQ9Mhl

1

17

3

2

2K

Brian Locke, MD MSCI

@doc_BLocke

almost 4 years ago

@CuriousClinPod An actionable implication of this is that the hypoxemia of a PE is relatively easily correctable with oxygen (🚫shunt), unless there is a superimposed process. Moves PE lower on the ddx for severe hypoxemia (as long as people avoid #conjunctionfallacy @phlegmfighter )

1

5

0

Apurv Barche @ApurvBarche

almost 4 years ago

This is so amazing.... it offers great insight.... Also makes me realize that probability of me remembering this and subsequently applying it in clinically, is lower than what I estimated by myself..... #conjunctionfallacy

The Phlegmfighter @phlegmfighter

almost 4 years ago

This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy https://t.co/zGULPrdVBa @JAMANetworkOpen

14

211

71

90

0

2

0

The Phlegmfighter @phlegmfighter

almost 4 years ago

@gmsamaras Yes; fortunately the #conjunctionfallacy doesn't require independence. However, the multiplication rule does - it's more stringent. That's why we focused more on the CF rather than the product probability

0

2

0

The Phlegmfighter @phlegmfighter

almost 4 years ago

In this article, we showed that physicians estimated the probability of two events both occurring as *more* likely than one or both of the individual events. This is logically impossible and consistent with the #conjunctionfallacy. This #bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes

1

14

5

0

The Phlegmfighter @phlegmfighter

almost 4 years ago

This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy https://t.co/zGULPrdVBa @JAMANetworkOpen

14

211

71

90

0

Pobble @Pobble8

over 4 years ago

@BarryBenjamin21 @dlsmith0817 @emmettimanu @manooleh @folktayl @Persian70509610 @NKippur @hulkofpalestine @WeinsteinDr @EssEff76 @manifesto2000 @siobanvict @Abaddon12346 @F_is_for_fAk @IQ15991967 @Pakeha56 @LollllllaJR @COPIA_COPMA1 @fZ0ZmvX4bGD84lY @VArabboy @david_starof @namjoonandme12 @Joe10616924 @for_americans @radaniya73 @P3ng1z @Storey2Bob @minskeeeleh @AdrienWolf13 @PrinzEu29528267 @giheme @BENJAMlNTUCKER @initiative_Insp @veravelfalsa @HumanitarianPR @Boumedi80195570 @HanneyAngel @Maccabi226km @mlirh @EvilestFool @RogerLa67397096 @angieshermua @DNy1818 @Pen_Bird @lisa20102019 @noah_guttman @AirWolf114NL @a_zionist @altleftto @screenstarr #DefinistFallacy #ConjunctionFallacy None of what you say follows. “You suppose”…?? You should stop right there. Let’s be reductive for you. All under the parabolic arch of #STRAWMAN

0

3

0

Yinying Wang @HelenWangYying

over 4 years ago

The conjunction rule holds that the probability of both “A” and “B” cannot be higher than the probability of “A” alone. Yet people’s decisions usually violate the conjunction rule. #ConjunctionFallacy #LeadershipMatters #GSUEdLead #DecisionMaking https://t.co/rGx1nn89si

0

2

0

Simon March FPL

@MarchSimon

about 5 years ago

@ChelseaYannick If we were all rational 'Under 40' would be the most voted for category here as the first two categories are contained within it.🧑‍🔬#TheLindaProblem #ConjunctionFallacy

1

0

Monica Aswani @Monica_Aswani

over 5 years ago

Random pandemic life thought: people often commit the #ConjunctionFallacy (e.g., judge the conjunction of events as more probable than either event alone). Perhaps even worse, though, disinformation efforts often rely on this for credibility...

0

1

0

The Phlegmfighter @phlegmfighter

almost 6 years ago

@ArgaizR The probability of RV dysfunction from known disease (#COVARDS) is >> probability of RV dysfunction from COVARDS *and* PE. #conjunctionfallacy #lindaproblem Safest bet is UFH/LMWH till dust settles.

1

10

0

TruthOrFiction.com @erumors

over 6 years ago

Here's #ConjunctionFallacy, or to put it another way, correlation does not necessarily equal direct causation: https://t.co/dqkHCXT4gB

1

0

iejme @iejmejournal

over 6 years ago

Fostering probabilistic reasoning away from fallacies: Natural information formats and interaction between school levels, https://t.co/rmhQ0oC8S5 #probabilisticthinking #conjunctionfallacy @UElBosque

iejmejournal's tweet photo. Fostering probabilistic reasoning away from fallacies: Natural information formats and interaction between school levels, https://t.co/rmhQ0oC8S5 #probabilisticthinking #conjunctionfallacy @UElBosque https://t.co/J1r9Xjzjta

0

1

0

1

0

Miguel F. Astudillo @migferast

over 8 years ago

@jfdecarolis @DKeithClimate nice! I was thinking precisely about this when reading about the Linda Problem in Thinking fast, thinking slow. #conjunctionfallacy

0

1

0