Top Tweets for #conjunctionfallacy
This is a short article (5 minute read) about how the conjunction fallacy ("The Linda Problem") can compromise how we calculate and look at risk. https://t.co/7WrFSxsjK4 #Risk #TheLindaProblem #ConjunctionFallacy #MondayBlogs

Humans make predictable reasoning errors #conjunctionFallacy. A new #psynomPBR paper by @VLaughmaker Sowgol Sadeghi, Linh Tran @AaronBlaisdell shows we’re not alone —rats commit this fallacy too! Post by @PillaiRaunak
https://t.co/DwYt51uTJ4

@CuriousClinPod An actionable implication of this is that the hypoxemia of a PE is relatively easily correctable with oxygen (🚫shunt), unless there is a superimposed process.
Moves PE lower on the ddx for severe hypoxemia (as long as people avoid #conjunctionfallacy @phlegmfighter )
This is so amazing.... it offers great insight....
Also makes me realize that probability of me remembering this and subsequently applying it in clinically, is lower than what I estimated by myself..... #conjunctionfallacy
This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy https://t.co/zGULPrdVBa @JAMANetworkOpen
@gmsamaras Yes; fortunately the #conjunctionfallacy doesn't require independence. However, the multiplication rule does - it's more stringent. That's why we focused more on the CF rather than the product probability
In this article, we showed that physicians estimated the probability of two events both occurring as *more* likely than one or both of the individual events. This is logically impossible and consistent with the #conjunctionfallacy. This #bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes
This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy https://t.co/zGULPrdVBa @JAMANetworkOpen
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#ConjunctionFallacy
None of what you say follows.
“You suppose”…??
You should stop right there.
Let’s be reductive for you. All under the parabolic arch of #STRAWMAN
The conjunction rule holds that the probability of both “A” and “B” cannot be higher than the probability of “A” alone. Yet people’s decisions usually violate the conjunction rule. #ConjunctionFallacy #LeadershipMatters #GSUEdLead #DecisionMaking https://t.co/rGx1nn89si
@ChelseaYannick If we were all rational 'Under 40' would be the most voted for category here as the first two categories are contained within it.🧑🔬#TheLindaProblem #ConjunctionFallacy
Random pandemic life thought: people often commit the #ConjunctionFallacy (e.g., judge the conjunction of events as more probable than either event alone).
Perhaps even worse, though, disinformation efforts often rely on this for credibility...
@ArgaizR The probability of RV dysfunction from known disease (#COVARDS) is >> probability of RV dysfunction from COVARDS *and* PE. #conjunctionfallacy #lindaproblem Safest bet is UFH/LMWH till dust settles.
Here's #ConjunctionFallacy, or to put it another way, correlation does not necessarily equal direct causation:
https://t.co/dqkHCXT4gB
Fostering probabilistic reasoning away from fallacies: Natural information formats and interaction between school levels, https://t.co/rmhQ0oC8S5 #probabilisticthinking #conjunctionfallacy @UElBosque

@jfdecarolis @DKeithClimate nice! I was thinking precisely about this when reading about the Linda Problem in Thinking fast, thinking slow. #conjunctionfallacy
#GamblersFallacy #ConjunctionFallacy und Co. In Folge 60 geht es um kognitive Verzerrungen und #Wahrscheinlichkeiten https://t.co/rEASCUhLVA
Most humans choose faith over #rationality and #reasoning
Still, the latter wins in the run.
#conjunctionfallacy
https://t.co/1dqCToCKU7
#startups #biasOfTheDay #ConjunctionFallacy Tendency to assume specific conditions are more probable than general ones. #hypotheses again
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