Forever Hawk

STIRs Trader (US,CAN), Ex Market Maker, Amateur Energy Trader and Meme Lover

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

Avg CRA-Policy Rate
2025 Oct 3.18% 2025 Sep 5.35%
2024 Oct 5.73% 2024 Sep 4.21%
2023 Oct 2.75% 2023 Sep 0.75%

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

Any Canadian money market nerds DM me :)
Expecting stronger fixings for CRA next 2 months because of Canadian bank year end

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

Pressure remains.. Canadian banks trying to secure funding for a longer duration going into bank year end (Oct). Corra fixing up 5bps from Aug

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@Gamma_Blast_ Pretty soon you can buy the H7 outright at the dollar store...

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@RatesNacho Boom there you go. Today was 2.29. Makes sense. I do not expect it to stick around 2.25 next 2 months. It will remained pressured till november

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@STIR_Trader_ Yup that is correct. nothing was/is priced for Sep meet. I'm looking forward to seeing if BOC maintains its two-risk framework or tilts in a certain direction. With brent soaring v/s USMCA.

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

If it was not for USMCA falling apart, I think BOC could have just hiked tomorrow. They have been first movers/trend setters historically. The additional tariff impact is not too big to cause serious worries in growth but Canada has just bounced back from weak labor markets.

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@Seniorstrategen wait what.....

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@RatesNacho Cause everyone on X recommended flatteners :) including myself

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

After the Warsh show, I'd sell something like SOFR Z27-Z30 spread on pops. Still cant get married to a position given how fragile the 30Y is. We have seen a lot of bear steepening too recently

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

Listen up, if your girl...

is telling you the fight isn't over
says you haven't met your goals
won't give you any clear answers

That's not your girl. That's the Fed chair.

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@STIR_Trader_ Ah! That means I’m doing great. I change my opinion on CRA and SONIA markets every 2 days

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@STIR_Trader_ Z6-7 at 63.0 bps in CRA does seem quite fair given bounce in employment, prices and energy prices. it should remain between 50-75 range for now
But, you can make the argument that U6-Z6 can slowly drop towards 10.0 bps in the next few months if BOC does not signal any urgency

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@aRishisays I second the comments on this thread. Given payrolls and CPI looking soft, fed can wait a little longer. I’d like to be long V6 + long SR3 Z6-Z7 12mo spread

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@MrMBrown is ZQV6 free 10 bps?

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

to my SR3 Curve 6m fly traders... IYKYK..

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

As most are aware, PCE vs CPI wedge has flipped dramatically in the past year as diverging inflation dynamics (AI related higher, housing related lower) have pushed core PCE to its highest reading vs CPI since 2010. So head fake potential is high for the initial CPI print until there is more clarity on how it maps into PCE.

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@STIR_Trader_ Everyone in the cabinet is a “yes man”. Not surprised…

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

Hormuz and el-Mandeb low crossings… not sure about dark routes. But thats why Brent has been climbing.
A Hormuz deal might not solve a growing Mandeb issue.

[Forever Hawk @hawkishdude]

@darioperkins Daily family fights at the FOMC table.