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4 months ago

Since the 59.8k low in February, price has spent a long time forming a range with roughly 59.8k as the floor and 76k as the ceiling. In that range, market makers were likely hunting liquidity on both sides. The repeated failure to cleanly break above 76k was not random. My view is that they did not want a real upside expansion yet, because they still needed a deeper move down later to accumulate for the next major bull phase. The problem was that pushing lower was not easy. Too many participants had already recognized the range for what it was: a liquidity-hunting environment. Because of that, traders were not aggressively building longs near the lower end of the range, which meant there was not enough downside fuel for a sharp breakdown. There simply were not enough trapped longs to squeeze. So the strategy appears to have shifted. Instead of aggressively sweeping the downside, price broke out of the 60k to 76k range and began moving higher mainly by squeezing shorts above, while mostly avoiding any serious sweep of downside liquidity. On the surface, this starts to look like the beginning of a real bullish trend. And that is always when the same narrative starts spreading: “this time is different.” That is exactly the psychological trap. The purpose of squeezing only the upside is not necessarily to start a sustainable bull run, but to build a large long base underneath. If price is eventually going to revisit and break below 59.8k to form a true bottom, it needs liquidity. It needs longs to be stacked first. That is why sentiment has been shifting. As price approaches 80k, timelines turn more bullish, fear and greed recovers toward neutral, and people begin to believe that the bear market bottom is already behind us. In my view, market makers will likely keep the rally going a bit further, because retail FOMO is still needed to fully build that long positioning. But they also have limits. If they push too far and truly break the higher time frame trend structure to the upside, it becomes much harder to reverse the market back down. That is why I think the move likely stalls before that kind of technical damage is done, somewhere around the 82k to 84k area. Until then, the goal is to maintain trust in the move, not to damage it by sweeping too much downside liquidity too early. Once enough long positioning is built, enough to make a break below 59.8k meaningful, the market can suddenly reverse. That is when the real bottoming process begins. The logic is simple: the market has not yet had the chance to accumulate spot at truly cheap prices. The price that most people consider “already cheap enough” is usually not the price market makers want. They want lower. So the entire process becomes psychological. The market is not just moving price. It is manipulating interpretation, exploiting the human tendency to see what people want to see and believe what they want to believe.

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