Hitesh Arora

tech bro

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@sama @elonmusk gave you the brilliant suggestion to not name your non-profit (wink) Cogito and call it @OpenAI instead

[Hitesh Modi @imhiteshmodi]

A father once gave his son a solemn promise to keep.

"Never ride a bike without a helmet."

To make sure he never forgot, he gave him his own kasam:

"The day you ride without a helmet, you will see your father's dead face."

The son obeyed.

Every ride.
Every journey.
Every single time.

Today, that father stands holding the same helmet.

The helmet is intact.

His son, 34-year-old Sarthak Mattoo, is not.

A son who honored his father's word.
A son who followed the rules.
A son who wore the helmet his father insisted upon.

Yet none of it could save him from the recklessness of another person on the road.

The helmet survived.
The father's blessing survived.

But the son did not.

Imagine the pain of a father who spent years fearing that his son might die for not wearing a helmet, only to lose him while he was doing everything right.

Road safety cannot be a one-sided responsibility.

When a law-abiding citizen loses his life despite following every precaution, society owes his family more than condolences.

Sarthak Mattoo deserves justice.

And his father deserves to know that his son's life was worth more than a headline

Again "Thar" is in the loop. Why it is always in the wrong action?

@gurgaonpolice
@cmohry

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

The $400 price target walkthrough:

• 20,000 transplants × ~$92.5K avg revenue/transplant = ~$1.85B revenue ✓
• 25% net margin → ~$462M net income
• 32x P/E on $462M = ~$14.8B market cap
• At ~37M shares outstanding → ~$400/share ✓

Today's market cap at $103: ~$3.5B. That's a potential 4x from here by 2030 — a 4-year horizon.

What the market is missing:
The investment year compression is temporary and intentional. Management is sacrificing 200-300bps of margin now to build the infrastructure for 20K → 30K transplants. That's a classic "short-term pain, long-term compounding" trade that the market consistently misprices.

The parallel: Amazon was "not profitable" for years while building AWS. Market hated it. Long-term holders got 10x.

One thing to track:
The 20K transplant goal implies roughly doubling from current ~10K/year run rate by 2030. That's ~15% volume CAGR. With kidney OCS coming online and international expansion — very achievable. I’ll be watching the quarterly transplant volume numbers as my thesis scorecard.

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@BSacamanoV @ryancohen

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@JoshKale Grok’s assessment:

https://t.co/7v11boQu1q

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

Hard pass, and this one needs a direct warning.

What VCX actually is:
This is a closed-end fund (CEF) from Fundrise with a NAV of ~$19/share. It holds stakes in Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Databricks, Anduril. The underlying assets are real and valuable.

The problem:
The stock is trading at $281 on a $19 NAV. That's a 1,379% premium to the actual value of the assets it holds.

You would be paying $281 to own something worth $19.

How this always ends:
CEFs trading at extreme premiums to NAV always revert. Always. The only question is timing. When the hype fades — and it always does — the stock crashes back toward NAV. That's a potential -93% drawdown from current levels.

The post is designed to create FOMO. "You already missed a 15x return" + "people will pay anything" = classic pump framing. The people who bought at $19 made 15x. Anyone buying at $281 is buying their exit.

The right way to think about this:
If you genuinely want exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX, the answer isn't paying 14x NAV for a CEF. Wait for the actual IPOs or look for more reasonably priced indirect exposure (like NVIDIA, which supplies the compute).

@grok what is your assessment?

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

Here's my read on OII.

What Oceaneering does:
ROVs (remotely operated underwater vehicles), subsea services, and robotics for offshore energy, defense, and aerospace. Think: the company that physically operates underwater when oil platforms need work done, and increasingly — protecting undersea infrastructure (cables, pipelines).

Where I'd pump the brakes:

• Stock is at ~$34, TD Cowen just raised their PT to... $34. Hold-rated. Analyst consensus has no upside baked in.
• Insider selling recently — not a great sign when management is reducing exposure.
• Oil went from $119 → $88 today on peace signals. If the Iran conflict genuinely resolves, the offshore energy acceleration thesis weakens fast.
• FCF projected at only $96M in 2026 — not a high-quality earnings machine yet.

My verdict:
The dual angle (offshore services + subsea defense) is real, but the stock is already fairly valued by sell-side, and the near-term energy catalyst may be deflating as the conflict de-escalates.

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@KobeissiLetter @grok are there any similarities of this capex spend with capital deepening and Solow paradox of 80s/90s?

[Josh Woodward @joshwoodward]

🇮🇳 Good morning India! A lot of you asked for full-length mock JEE Main tests in @GeminiApp at no cost - done! Good luck on your prep!

Last week, SAT. This week, JEE.

What other global exams would be most helpful?

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@EthanChoi7 Excellent read! 👏

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@dawood_ahmad55 @ICC @grok @grok are security concerns regarding cricket matches in Pakistan valid because of the terror attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in 2009? Whereas Indian law enforcement forces continue to keep terror elements out of the sport despite being resource constrained.

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@MarketAlertOnly @unusual_whales labor quantity != skill specificity, go figure!

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@KobeissiLetter

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@shayan_ autoban crypto bots

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@adukiarohit You got the better of @BillAckman on that thesis! Kudos!

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@vhmth read Never Enough by Andrew Wilkinson if you feel everything else is a side quest https://t.co/KbuerTP0DM

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@elonmusk Most likely because these religions show respect and tolerance towards other faiths. Hinduism even acknowledges atheism as a valid philosophical position.

[Hitesh Arora @hitesharora7]

@ISHAN_KD91 @googlechrome already gives users the choice. But users prefer @Google because it is superior to the other options imo.