HoundCreek Research

On-demand equity research built on probability, not opinion. Institutional-grade memos in minutes. Research, not advice.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

HoundCreek Research is live. Submit a U.S. ticker, get a dated institutional-style memo — reverse DCF, Monte Carlo — typically under 10 minutes. First memo free.

Probability, not opinion.
→ https://t.co/31Nknm3UT3

Research, not advice. Disclosures: https://t.co/EfMPpog9p4

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

MARKET WATCH — the week ahead (Nov 2-6): the cash-flow test goes federal. Midterms Tuesday, payrolls Friday, the Treasury's refunding Wednesday — with ~70% odds of a December hike already priced. $SPX

Last week the tape graded receipts, not promises: GOOGL's record −12.6% day, INTC −29%, AMZN −7%. AI's now priced on cash flow, and October was the rotation — the Nasdaq fell ~5%, its worst month since March 2025, while the Dow rose. The 10-year sits near 4.9% and the market still prices ~70% odds of a December hike (next FOMC: Dec 8-9).

Earnings on deck: AAPL and PLTR after Monday's close, AMD after Tuesday's, Uber Wednesday morning, QCOM and ARM after Wednesday's. The question running through every print: does this week extend the cash-flow grading?

Macro: ISM manufacturing Monday; midterms Tuesday (all 435 House seats, 35 Senate); JOLTS Tuesday 10am; the Fed speakers return (Goolsbee Monday, Hammack and Barkin Thursday, Williams and Musalem Friday); ADP and ISM services Wednesday; productivity Thursday; the BoE Thursday. Friday, October payrolls at 8:30 — consensus ~55k after September's +29k, unemployment seen at 4.2%. CPI follows next Tuesday, Nov 10.

Events: the Treasury's quarterly refunding — the borrowing estimate Monday 3pm, the statement Wednesday 8:30am. How much Washington borrows, at 4.9%, into a week that picks a new Congress; the 3/10/30-year auctions follow the week after.

What would flip our read: payrolls north of ~100k — December-hike odds head back toward the fall's highs, and the tell is the 10-year reclaiming 5%. Or a contested midterm that spooks the refunding. #Markets

Research, not advice.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

@MikeZaccardi @yardeni @SeekingAlpha The temporary-vs-structural test: prices falling while estimates hold = temporary (like July); estimates falling with the price = structural. On MU our model still sees real AI-memory momentum — durability unproven, direction real in our opinion. https://t.co/Zi4fDczhTe

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

@growthrapidly $SNDK : the market's pricing peak-margin collapse. Our model assumes margins normalize and lands ~$2,500 Fair Value (pre-split) — $1,151 is below the bottom of our range so low-confidence.
https://t.co/gUYcFBmYJu

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Memory costs feed straight into NVDA's margins. Our memo puts fair value at $165.42 (range $138.55–$227.80) — at $204.72 the price is inside but above the median, needing growth near the top of the model. The read flips if gross margin holds as memory costs climb.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Flash Forward: Bernstein, Goldman Say "High-Bandwidth Flash" Could Crumble AI's Memory Wall... If Nvidia Ever Shows Up https://t.co/2g57bH8EPG

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

WEEKLY REVIEW — the market asked AI for receipts, and the tape delivered: GOOGL's record drop, INTC -29%, AMZN -7%. Our cash-flow frame survived the week. The scorecard, what changed, and what midterms + jobs mean for December. $SPX

Fifteen reads across three screens, one through-line: the market stopped pricing AI growth and started pricing AI cash flow. Calls: GOOGL Neutral after its crash — lower-middle of a $251-$372 range; INTC, $26 fair value vs a $65 price; AMZN, $178 vs $240; one Outperform, SNDK, $2,500 vs $1,151.

What hit: the frame. GOOGL -12.64% Thursday, a record one-day drop; INTC -29%; AMZN -7% premarket on a -$42B trailing cash-flow print — the tape graded cash, as we read it. GOOGL Neutral closed the loop: shares near $280, in range. RDDT fell 29%. Friday's morning flip call half-hit: the Dow slid (-1.09%), ECI wages printed cool (+0.7%), so risk-off never triggered — buyers showed up, AMZN closing -2% after -7%.

What missed: SNDK, our one Outperform, fell 13% on a blowout — the tape disagreed. And INTC, after -29%, still trades ~2.5x its $26 fair value. What changed: the 10-year fell to 4.93% (-36bp in October, lowest in a month); December-hike odds trimmed ~85% to ~71%. October was a rotation: Nasdaq ~-5%, worst month since March 2025, vs Dow +1.7%, a 7-point gap last seen in 2022. Hard assets sat out: gold under $4,000 (-7% on the month), bitcoin a six-week low after the ~$6B theft — custody broke, not the protocol.

Next week: AAPL after Monday's close, its new CEO's first call; Tuesday the midterms (all 435 House seats, 35 Senate, control on the line), JOLTS at 10, AMD after the close; Uber Wednesday; October jobs Friday 8:30, the rate print, ~70% December hike priced. Open calls: do next week's reports extend the cash-flow grading, or does the defensive bid fade? What would flip our read: those defensive highs breaking — that's liquidation, not rotation.

Full coverage: https://t.co/vlQGAN05MJ

Research, not advice.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

This chart should scare every investor.

67 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now in a bear market.

Half of them are down more than 28.5% from their all time highs, and $11.5 trillion has been wiped out.

Only 11 are still within 5% of their peak.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Rough end to October — both still above our modeled envelopes.
$INTC $65.35 vs $18.11–$36.26: turnaround priced well ahead of demonstrated cash flow.
$RDDT $91.66 vs $60.63–$90.12: just above. The market is still paying up.

Research, not advice.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Intel, Reddit and AI Stocks Face a Rough End to October - RTRS

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*ANTHROPIC EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A “HIGH” JUNK RATING: FT

[CNBC @CNBC]

These stocks were the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow's top market movers for the day — October 30, 2026. 📈📉

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

$XOM
ExxonMobil is read as a fully priced quality cyclical: the shares sit near the top of the modeled value distribution at the 52-week high, and the base case assumes margin normalization rather than the perpetuation of current cycle conditions. The market already capitalizes a sustained favorable energy cycle, and the wide spread between base and aggressive scenarios keeps confidence in the central estimate low.
https://t.co/BwCCXHG3Et

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

HoundCreek Post-Earnings Report — Oct 30
Ticker | Fair Value | Current | Return | View
$INTC | $26 | $65 | -60% | Not Rated / Speculative (model lean: Underperform)
$AMZN | $178 | $240| -26% | Underperform
$RDDT | $74 | $92 | -19% | Underperform
$SNDK | $2500 | $1151 | +117%| Outperform
$XOM | $147 | $187 | -22% | Underperform

Full report: https://t.co/PdXkich2Za
#PostEarnings

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

$SNDK
Sandisk is read as a peak-cycle NAND story with the model's fair value materially above the market price: the anchor normalizes memory-cycle economics rather than treating current margins as permanent, all on the pre-split basis ahead of the 8-for-1 split. The market prices a faster pricing reset than the operating evidence shows — the gap is large, and while the model is flagged as detached and lower-confidence, the direction is unambiguous.
https://t.co/yI58n3677L

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

Here's a snapshot of key ETF performance across asset classes in October and year-to-date.

October was a month of extremes. Growth was down 5.5%, while Value rallied 5% to new all-time highs. Energy and Staples were up 10%+ while Tech and Comm. Svcs fell 8%+.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

The safety trade had one address: Treasuries. The 10Y ended at 4.93%, lowest in over a month, -36bp in October. Dollar slipped, gold sat under $4,000, bitcoin a six-week low. Wages cooled to 0.7%; December-hike bets eased. Midterms Tuesday.

https://t.co/y5xO037HZc

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Nasdaq -2.9%, worst month since March '25; S&P -1.8%; decliners 1.7:1. AI selloff spread, but staples, healthcare, oil majors at new highs; bonds rallied. Money moved; it didn't leave. $QQQ

Research, not advice.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Half the morning's flip call hit: the Dow slid. Wages printed cool. The tape graded cash: INTC -28% on a cash-burn warning; AMZN down 7% premarket, closed down 2%. What would flip our read: staples and healthcare giving back their highs. That's liquidation.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

TIPS: real ~2.63%; the 10Y breakeven prices ~2.35% inflation. We think true inflation tracks ~6% money-supply growth — real rates are deeply negative. Gold under 4,000, bitcoin down on a ~6B exchange hack — a custodian failed, not the asset.

https://t.co/y5xO037HZc

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Nasdaq futures -2.4%, S&P -1% — AI capex repricing, leg two. A flat Dow is the tell: rotation, not risk-off. Yields falling, oil back over 103, energy majors beat; wage data at 8:30. $QQQ

Founder's take: capex is a promise; cash flow is proof.

Research, not advice.

[HoundCreek Research @HoundCreek]

Specific repricing, not systemic: AMZN -7% on a 42B cash burn, INTC -25% on a cash-burn warning, GOOGL — yesterday's record dropper, from our post-earnings screen — near flat. What would flip our read: the Dow sliding, or a hot 8:30 wage print — risk-off, not rotation.