حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani

علاقمند به (A(gent) B(ased) M(odeling
کانال:

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

اگر تنها دارایی شما یک چکش باشد، آنگاه همه ی مشکلات را شبیه یک میخ خواهید دید!
#فکت

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

نسبت معاملات کاغذی به فیزیکی نفت در حال حاضر ۸۳ به ۱ است.

[Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ]

🚨 The paper oil market is currently operating in a state of pure, unadulterated psychosis.

FinTwit is arguing about moving averages while the Strait of Hormuz is functionally sealed off.

Zero tanker crossings.

Let that sink in for a second while you trade your cute little zero-days.

We have seven tankers lighting up their transponders begging not to be targeted by anti-ship missiles.

But the structural trap here is the derivative chain.

For every single dollar of actual, physical crude sitting in a barrel, there are eighty-three dollars of purely fictional paper contracts floating in the ether.

83 to 1.

You are trading a financialized hallucination.

When the physical chokepoint actually snaps, the clearing houses are going to force-liquidate the entire paper structure.

Risk officers are already quietly hiking margin requirements on energy derivatives across the street.

They know the physical delivery failure is mathematically inevitable at these ratios.

Keep charting your technical breakouts on $USO while the physical supply chain evaporates.

The margin calls when this paper market reconciles with physical reality will wipe out an entire generation of retail energy bulls.

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

خداوند به عمر آقای حریری برکت بده. چقدر زیبا بود این توییت:

[Majidreza Hariri مجیدرضا حریری @MajidRezaHarir1]

یه یارو بود که با کله میرفت تو بشکه که ایمپرشن بگیره و نون بخوره!
حالا یکی دوتا در حوزه اقتصاد داریم که تیک آبی دارند و بخاطر ایمپرشن هرروز یه پرت و پلایی در مورد ارز ترجیحی و حذف یارانه و گرانی سازی پست میذارن

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

بسیاری از پدیده های اقتصادی هم دقیقا همین خاصیت رو دارند.
بخصوص سیاستگذاری اقتصادی به شرایط اولیه حساسیت بسیار بالایی داره.

[مهران محمدی @mehranmohamaddi]

این اثر پروانه ای در فیزیک خیلی جالبه ، خیلی از قوانین فیزیک در علوم اجتماعی هم صدق میکنه

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

قدرت روزافزون جمهوری اسلامی ایران، این شیاطین رو به جان هم انداخته:

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

Not quite the path Wendy, Ben or I would have taken. But if this deal brings an end to an unlawful, unjustifiable war, to the senseless loss of life and destruction, and to the cascading global economic fallout, I am quite sure we’d willingly accept it over the alternative.

@wendyrsherman @brhodes

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

عجب روایتی!

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

Absolute bombshell. Prominent economist Richard Werner confirms the 1997 Asian financial crisis was completely engineered.

He reveals the IMF deliberately bankrupted Thailand to force them into selling off their national industries to foreign elites for pennies!

[علیرضا زادبر @alireza_zadbar]

دوست آگاه و دشمن مُنصف هر دو باید این سوال را از خود بپرسند!

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

خاویر میلی تمام شد، اما نادان‌هایی که نسخه‌های او را برای ایران ما پیشنهاد می‌دادند هنوز درحال گوهرافشانی‌اند!

[Financial Times @FT]

Argentina’s president Javier Milei is facing his toughest moment yet. His approval ratings have fallen sharply in recent months, the main reason is the economy, explains the FT’s Ciara Nugent. https://t.co/574pPzOsP2

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

So you're funding Hegseth the failed TV host at rates unheard of since 2007, so he can cosplay as Secretary of War in our backyard in Hormuz?

You know what's crazier than $39 trillion in debt? Paying a pre-GFC premium to fund a LARP and all you'll get is a brand new GFC.

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

این پیش بینی، بیش از حد خوشبینانه است. رشد انفجاری قیمت نفت به شرط ادامه تجاوز ترویست‌های امریکایی، خیلی زودتر از 9 مرداد لمس خواهد شد.
#تنگه‌هرمز

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

My take on the upcoming oil inventory shortages:

"If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, the US will come close to depleting its inventories of oil by the end of July. When inventories run out, we will face a real shortage, and prices will spike."

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

توصیف جالب ایران از زبان یک سناتور کنیایی:

[HE. Capt. Ali Ibrahim Roba, EGH, MP @aliiroba]

“Iran is not a country manufactured yesterday around election slogans, quarterly profits, and televised patriotism. It is a civilisation that was ancient when America was still undiscovered wilderness. While Washington measures history in four-year election cycles and stock market reactions, Iran measures survival in centuries.

The Americans continue to make the fatal mistake of confronting a people whose national memory stretches thousands of years deep; a civilisation that has buried empires, absorbed invasions, survived monarchs, sanctions, assassinations, isolation, and yet still stands intact.

America believes pressure creates surrender because that is how modern powers think. Iran believes pressure is simply another chapter in a very long history. That is the difference between a superpower obsessed with immediate results and a civilisation trained by time itself to endure indefinitely.

Sanctions did not break Iran. Threats did not break Iran. Isolation did not break Iran. Instead, every punishment merely hardened a population already conditioned by history to survive hardship as a normal part of existence.

And perhaps the greatest miscalculation of all is psychological: America confronts a society whose patriotism is civilisational, not transactional. A people who do not see death with the same fear-driven lens of modern Western politics, but as an inevitable cycle of life that can arrive at any moment. Such societies are extraordinarily difficult to intimidate.

The arrogance of Washington is now colliding with the patience of Persia and history repeatedly teaches the same brutal lesson: empires intoxicated by power often mistake restraint for weakness until the cost of that miscalculation becomes irreversible.”

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

@AliAbutalebi سلامت باشید ارادت

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

هدف ما اخراج نظامیان تروریست آمریکایی از غرب آسیا بود ولی ظاهراً پایگاه‌های آمریکایی در اروپا هم در حال برچیده شدنند.
پ.ن: رامشتاین (آلمان) بزرگترین و آویانو (ایتالیا) قدیمی‌ترین پایگاه نظامی آمریکا در خارج از این کشور محسوب می‌شد که به لطف حماقت‌های ترامپ درحال تخلیه هستند.

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

The MAGA crowd in Washington has decided that since Europeans don’t sufficiently appreciate Trump, the American bases on the continent must go. This is the strategic reasoning of a man who burns down his own kitchen.

American bases in Europe were never a favour. They are the logistical spine of every war the United States fights east of Gibraltar. Ramstein moves the cargo, Aviano launches the jets, Rota services the ships. Without them the Pentagon does not project power into the Middle East. It projects PowerPoint.

The fantasy assumes the alternative is aircraft carriers gliding majestically into the Persian Gulf. That era is ending. A modern carrier is a thirteen-billion-dollar trophy that can be reduced to scrap by a couple of hundred cheap missiles fired from the Iranian coast. China noticed.

The other fantasy is that America simply fights from home. Picture the alternative: twenty thousand transatlantic sorties shuttling spare parts, munitions, fuel bladders, mechanics and replacement pilots from Norfolk and Dover to wherever the war happens to be. A C-17 burns through roughly 35,000 dollars of fuel every hour it flies, and the round trip from the American east coast to the Gulf is the better part of a day. Multiply that by every bolt, every missile, every spare engine. The war becomes a sustained airborne traffic jam with the bill arriving by the second.

So you need land, specifically land near the war. Modern combat aircraft are not Spitfires you fuel up and send off with a wave. An F-35 demands an entire Walmart of spare parts, a small city of technicians, climate-controlled hangars and a supply chain stretching halfway round the planet. Drones need operators, networks, satellites and a steady diet of components no carrier can store. Modern war arrives by container ship and lives in a warehouse.

Close the bases, and Washington loses the warehouses. Lose the warehouses, and the next confrontation with Iran is either fought by phone or fought from Kansas with a flight schedule that bankrupts the Treasury before the first missile lands.

MAGA thinks shutting Ramstein punishes Europe. It punishes America. Europe will be inconvenienced. America will be unarmed.

And so, after a thousand insults, a thousand sneers, a thousand late-night posts about freeloading allies, Europe is quietly drafting the politest letter in diplomatic history. It thanks America for its service. It wishes the troops a safe journey home. It suggests, with great warmth, that Washington might now turn its attention to its neighbours in Latin America, where a fading superpower can busy itself with whatever a fading superpower busies itself with.

Spain had its century. Britain had its empire. The Soviets had their parades. Each ended the same way: as a shadow of itself, with the historians left to argue, volume after volume, about precisely when the rot set in and why nobody noticed in time. America is welcome to join them on the shelf.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

If you like what you read, please follow Gandalv on Substack:
https://t.co/2TO5x2O8nI

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

شاخص قیمت روزانه سوخت (زرد رنگ) و غذا (آبی رنگ):

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

این اقدام چین، آغاز یک «جنگ سرد مالی» است.
اگر آمریکا به تهدید خود در اعمال تحریم ثانویه علیه بانک‌های چینی عمل کند،‌ فروپاشی مالی اقتصاد جهانی تسریع خواهد شد.
اگر به این تهدید عمل نکند، عملاً تحریم‌های آمریکا بی‌اثر خواهد شد.
و این یعنی معادله برد-برد برای ایران!

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

ترامپ و باند تبهکارش در زمره احمق‌ترین‌های تاریخ هستند. آلمان برای سالیان متمادی، مهمترین شریک اقتصادی آمریکا در قاره اروپا بود.
ببینید این نادان‌ها چطور عمق راهبردی آمریکا رو دارند در جهان از بین می‌برند!

[Ali Saeedi 🟩☫🟥 علی سعیدی @saeedy_ali]

ضربات پیاپی به جنازه پترودلار وارد می‌شود. علاوه بر امارات، عربستان هم تصمیم گرفته دارایی‌های خود را از بانکهای انگلیسی و آمریکایی خارج کنند.

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

گاز هلیوم قابل ذخیره سازی نیست!

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

Markets are trading oil. They’re missing helium.

Lose Qatar and you lose 1/3 of global supply of a non-substitutable input for MRIs, chips, and quantum.

No reserve. No workaround. 3–5 year rebuild.

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

انسداد تنگه هرمز، اقتصادهای مبتنی بر گردشگری را هم به تدریج ویران‌ خواهد کرد.

[John Kemp @JKempEnergy]

Global airlines at the centre of fuel crisis

Global markets for jet fuel have been more severely disrupted than gasoline or diesel by the war between the United States and Iran, even though jet fuel accounts for less than one-tenth of worldwide oil consumption.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since January, roughly twice as fast as the increase in front-month Brent futures over the same period, reflecting the increasing scarcity of aviation fuel and fears the shortage will worsen further ...

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

شوک عرضه نفت ناشی از انسداد تنگه هرمز، به‌زودی تبدیل به یک رکود تورمی عمیق در کل دنیا خواهد شد. حتی اگر تنگه همین امروز بازگشایی شود.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Best low-jargon analysis explaining why the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a slow-motion train wreck for the global economy.

TL;DR: *Even if* Hormuz reopens *tomorrow*, economic disaster is all but inevitable due to lost oil supply.

That’s what Trump’s war has done.

Because of physical oil shortages emerging on time delay, the world will need to cut oil consumption massively — on the order of what a Covid-19 global recession caused.

Why a recession? Recessions reduce oil consumption, due to lower levels of economic activity. When economies boom, oil consumption increases. When economies suffer, oil consumption falls.

We are facing recession-level consumption cuts just due to lost supply — and that’s not even factoring in the additional economic damage from high prices!

(Paul Krugman, the Nobel-winning economist, has argued the same on his substack.)

Because people can’t quickly decrease oil consumption — they live where they live, own the car they own, and have to keep driving to work — high oil prices cause them to decrease spending on *everything else.* Huge demand shock, terrible for economies.

High oil prices also increase inflation as we’re all learning viscerally in real time. So the cost of all those essentials — food, clothing, etc — increases, too.

This global economic disaster was completely avoidable — and avoided, until Trump chose to attack Iran, foolishly believing victory would be costless and quick.

The Iran War should discredit the fallacy that we can bomb Iran into submission at low cost. We can’t.

The best/worst news is: we didn’t need to attack Iran at all — which means the U.S. can simply. stop. fighting.

Iran never was — and still isn’t — an imminent threat to the United States. It can’t reach the U.S. homeland and was deterred from attacking the Persian Gulf until Trump kicked this mess off.

Iran has played tit-for-tat all along, reciprocating attack with attack, ceasefire for ceasefire.

Iran was even willing to reopen Hormuz — until Trump refused to lift his blockade in exchange.

Trump hates to lose, but he must put the country ahead of his pride, cut his losses, and agree to a deal that reopens Hormuz completely — including from his own blockade.

The economic damage will only compound the longer this goes on.

@defpriorities
https://t.co/ybcM5xzVLH

[حسن حسن خانی|Hasan Hasankhani @hsnhasankhani]

عملیات «خشم اقتصادی» هم دقیقا مثل عملیات «خشم حماسی» به یک «فضاحت تمام عیار» برای رژیم ترامپ تبدیل خواهد شد.
ابزارهای پیچیده نظام مالی رژیم آمریکا در مقابل مردم ایران کم اثر شده، و چاره‌ای جز روی آوردن به بربریت و توحش ندارند.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.

The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.

Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.

We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.