hsri07

PM - Performing and distressed corp & structured credit with a macro overlay. BDC/CEF/1940 Act experience. Very good track record through 3 credit crises

[hsri07 @hsri07]

Tricolor, FirstBrands happen & everyone is doom & gloom about how this is a repeat of 2008! Like the much touted CRE is going to result in doom narrative 3 years ago. In both scenarios, NO. 🧵

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@BaldingsWorld So what? If the Chinese govt can do enough to prevent a systemic crisis, then who cares (except Chinese bank investors)? It’s like the recent oil brouhaha - everyone predicting $150 on Iran war with a smashed egg on their face…matters only if systemic

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@AahanPrometheus Redeemed himself for a bit before again falling into the doom porn camp ! 🤦‍♂️was wrong for much of last year, embraced the growth & inflation story for a few months this year, but alas hasn’t learned at all from last year’s mistakes, now back in the same bear camp

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@AahanPrometheus Meh, buying CDS on insurance companies may benefit from spread widening but A&L nowhere as mismatched as 08. Slow grind as some borrowers default over years, no big payout here

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@BurggrabenH They should have seen this? At least alluded to the possibility? Everyone forecasted $120, $150, $200. Now we re below $70!!!

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@DannyDayan5 these episodic var shocks aside, no real deterioration overall 👇

[Stephanie Link @Stephanie_Link]

$BKX quietly at an all time high bc fundamentals are strong: loans have increased for the 18th week in 21 to a record high, deposits rose for the 16th week in 20. Loans +7.7% y/y the fastest in 3+ yrs. Trading +8-18% & investment banking +10 - 20% revenues both tracking higher.

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@IreneuszIrzyk @DannyDayan5 Danny, ☝️- how do you disaggregate effect of front end rates on 10Y vs inflation driven I.e. would hikes which if seen as lasting can drive yields higher even as long as 10Y or hikes will quell inflation & lead to lower 10Y yields?

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@dalibali2 Ha, fair! I was commenting on the loooong duration of underperformance for them

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@dalibali2 Now do ADBE & worse FISV!

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@pineconemacro Cope much? Price action over 110 days has invalidated all the nonsensical oil price forecasts by “experts”. A couple of capitulated and admitted they were wrong, many more still clinging to horrendously wrong forecasts! 🤦‍♂️

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@BlacklionCTA @EffMktHype He can’t tighten but he will be dovish at the presser. How much mkts buy into his productivity miracle BS remains to be seen

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@darioperkins @dampedspring @jasongrig @sidprabhu Jan 22 2Y was < 1% ⚠️ what forward looking? Monkeys following the biggest mistake by the Fed in 15 years? 🤷‍♂️

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@CRUDEOIL231 @PauloMacro 👆instead of arguing about an utterly wrong trade again and again (I am wrong many times; need to admit it, take the L and move on). Every expert has been completely wrong on this (I am not an expert and stayed the f@#& away). My 2c but obv your call.

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@CRUDEOIL231 @AmirShalev3 👏 I second the appreciation of your post. X is full of geniuses who keep fighting the tape and don’t admit they are wrong (too early = wrong!). If you think oil is going to go back up in fall, then put the trade on for then and 25% lower in price!

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@BlacklionCTA @GavinSBaker 2 follow ups if you can please:
1. Why the f@#& did no one think of these while coming up with 120, 150 & even 200 px forecasts?
2. Despite being so badly wrong, why is everyone still talking the same sh#@ except it is now fall or end of the year (have they learned nothing)?

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@DannyDayan5 Is that a disinflationary impulse that can reduce overall inflation impulse in US? Have always been wary that a true credit crunch in China can export deflation to RoW

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@super_macro @ErikSTownsend All the oil bulls should go take a cold shower, -5% on this! $120, $150, $200 blah blah blah 🤦‍♂️. Too early = WRONG

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@DerivativesDon All the oil bulls should go take a cold shower, -5% on this! $120, $150, $200 blah blah blah 🤦‍♂️

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@PauloMacro All the oil bulls should go take a cold shower, -5% on this! $120, $150, $200 blah blah blah 🤦‍♂️

[hsri07 @hsri07]

@ClevelandFed @DianeSwonk @DannyDayan5 ☝️ what will Warsh anchor onto now that trimmed mean doesn’t support rate cuts ? 🤦‍♂️🤔