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bitcoin over banks | fractals over modern art | PhD in seismicity rate forecasting

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

president trump now supporting ukraine striking targets deep inside russia, saying the escalation “could help end the war.”

over the course of a year, trump has moved from suspending intelligence and military support for ukraine to a more hawkish position than president biden.

putin’s failure to grasp the opportunity presented by trump is extraordinary.

[Sam Rule @samjrule]

Citadel report showing the highest retail net buying for June in their data & it's concentrated at extremes in leveraged semis & tech & dip buying behavior is 3.5X the average

https://t.co/yOL9RTkuQC

[Guy Berger @EconBerger]

Claims:

1/ Initial claims still running below 2023-25 levels, though the relative outperformance is a little smaller than it was a month or two ago. Keeping an eye on this as another potential sign that the mini-recovery of early 2026 is ebbing.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

What is Iran trying to do?

Broadly speaking, it's trying to maintain its leverage over the strait and demonstrate its continued control over the waterway. US bombing is a cost that the leadership is likely willing to accept.

Right now, it wants to end all efforts to move ships through the strait that are being conduced *without it's direct involvement.*

That means shutting down the Omani route.

Current ship-tracking suggests they've been successful, at least for now.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to Axios’ Barak Ravid, citing a senior official, the U.S. Air Force bombed two railway bridges in Iran as part of strikes on Wednessay, appearing to confirm reports regarding the targeting of a train line in the Golestan Province of Northeastern Iran, near the border with Turkmenistan.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Sure oil prices fell recently, but most folks don't realize just how reliant that has been on continued strategic inventory drawdowns b/c Hormuz never really fully opened. At this pace weeks away from using up this crucial source of supply

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

Had a lot of client meetings recently. Do you know how many said they were worried that AI is a bubble but were buying anyway? All of them...

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump: I don't think the Iran war will start again.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Fed: Most cited possibility inflation could stay high due to AI

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ONGOING U.S. STRIKES AGAINST IRAN EXPECTED TO BE BIGGER THAN THOSE CARRIED OUT ON TUESDAY, U.S. OFFICIAL TO US MEDIA

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

The Iran army targeted US sites in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain - ISNA

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump: We will see whether we keep the oil down.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 Trump: Not sure I want to make a deal with Iranian leaders. Let's finish the job.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

HORMUZ TRAFFIC HOLDS FIRM

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains steady despite renewed attacks on commercial ships and rising Middle East tensions.

Ship-tracking firm Kpler recorded 36 vessel crossings on Monday and 41 on Tuesday—roughly in line with last week's daily average of about 40 crossings.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump says on Iran memorandum of understanding: I think it's finished

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

-US tries to move shipping through Hormuz without Iranian coordination.

-Iran attacks shipping

-US strikes targets in Iran near the strait, usually low-value military assets linked to recent ship attacks

-Iran retaliates against US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain

This sequence has played out countless times since the initial ceasefire agreement in April.

The MOU changed relatively little, as far as the status of the strait is concerned, though it *may* have given both sides more confidence that neither intends to resume full hostilities.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

China lifting product export ban the same day Iran enforce Oman route is no coincidence.

Maximum pressure on the US starts now.

Watch what China does with product prices. If they set it to market, it’s game on.

Teapot is the swing buyer in the oil market. With cracks where they are, they will go crazy. There’s a lot of refining capacity in China.

A lot.

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

Iran’s Foreign Ministry says in a statement that repeated US attacks, the revocation of a license for the sale of Iranian oil, the violation of Iran’s arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and continued Israeli attacks in Lebanon “have rendered important and fundamental parts of the memorandum of understanding to end the war ineffective.”

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards: targeted 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait following U.S. ceasefire breach

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

OpenAI: gpt-5.6 Sol, Terra and Luna to debut publicly this Thursday