Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.
Harris' chances continued to improve overnight.
Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg).
She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.
It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.
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@nikosbosse you might also be interested in this research on infectious disease crowd forecasting that we conducted with Johns Hopkins : https://t.co/RtGkyhpRWS