Brandon, PM

2014 MLB Draft - 33rd Rnd. Baltimore Orioles in HS | Miami Marlins | USC Marshall | PM & Chief Strategist | Exposing WS Swines | Not Investment Advice |

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@swingtrader CoreWeave took a $2.3Bn loan collateralized by $2.3Bn of NVDA H100 chips; Blackstone, BlackRock & Magnetard bought $2.3Bn NVDA chips (exact +$2.3Bn in data center beat contributed by US “growth”)

Fun Fact: CoreWeave is located in Las Vegas, the “US growth” NVDA mentioned is BS🤡

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@FinanceLancelot @hamish_hodder ^Probably best to just follow Michael Green and his research (the true GOAT of passive investing and inelasticity) @t1alpha

https://t.co/Wz13wDS3le

https://t.co/YXeA7wTTDp

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

^Let’s be honest with ourselves, what’s the best outcome, US & China both drop tariffs to 65%?

Corporate profit margins are at all time highs; Last I checked tariffs can’t help.

Are we suppose to believe a drop to 65% from both sides is a win?

Apple earnings was better than expected but bad overall, blowing their FCF on share buybacks as they bet their future on India and prove their is 0 innovation.

Google hid $8Bn in unrealized gains from SpaceX which saved EPS otherwise $1.4s.

Meta spent an additional $6-8Bn in CAPEX over estimates for marginal improvements in growth.

NVDA will likely do the same thing as Google with CoreWeave on their next earnings.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Microstrategy’s ER presentation (5.1.25) mimics a deck of a pre-seed cap raise

-92 page deck, 87 pages showing diagrams of non financial material going moon, 5 pages of “financials.” 🤡

Operating expenses up +1,100% to $6Bn, and prints a net loss of -$4.2Bn due to “BTC accounting changes.”

Captain Saylor now wants to double his debt raise after missing on both the top & bottom, nice. 🤡

Looks like BTC can’t trade < $69,000 or < $100,000 for more than a few years or Saylor’s “strategy” will force a BTC liquidation event.

https://t.co/dXuo1yICqL

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$MSTR is now up more than 3000% since adopting the Bitcoin Standard.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

There are real risks:

• FHA loan “forgiveness” ends April 30th, pending homes sales lowest EVER

• New student loan delinquencies can drop credit scores > 100 points, impacting 9MM people in Q1-Q2
—Interest rates for those borrowers increase +50-100%, banks won’t lend

• Motor Vehicle Retail Sales—Heavy Weight Truck tanking with used car sales negative

• Bond yields are higher than when Powell first started cutting rates; Bessent is failing to hold the long end of the yield curve with $4.5 trillion in maturities needing to be rolled out at a lower rate in Q2, 2025
—U.S. can’t rebuild manufacturing / infrastructure or add back jobs when the cost to refinance is at highs & credit markets are breaking

• Fed blackout period is April 26th-May 8th when May 2nd payroll data gets nuked, U.S. prints negative GDP, and RoC in unemployment spikes

• U.S. corporate profit margins are the highest ever (+13.5%) with 33% of 2024 EPS coming from the MAG7 meanwhile everything else printed 0-4% growth.

• Bond Market Volatility / Global FX Volatility at historically concerning levels

• Second unwind of USD/JPY carry trade under way going into earnings season; Companies have to announce layoffs to please shareholders.

—March 31st, 2007 started out of “tariffs,” when in reality homebuilders were already down -50% in 2006, but subprime “wasn’t a concern.”

Question is, does Powell cave on rates like he did in December of 2018; leveraged bond traders say no, but all eyes on the stock market.

Nothing is more deflationary than home prices / stocks falling.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Gold telling an interesting story this week: Looks like we may see all time highs soon, $2,200-$2,400 gold before:🤡

A) Short squeeze do to hedge fund positioning (JPM etc.), gold $2,800-$3,200

B) Financial system breaks, FED has to pivot due to capitulatory crash, gold $1,300

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@SamanthaLaDuc ^Keep your eyes out, it’s not just CoreWeave

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Anyone find the move in high yield / junk bonds concerning (HYG / JNK)?

How about TLT? Probably nothing 🤡

60/40 get’s smoked when CPI moves higher next year.

I can’t imagine China bond purchases come in strong next year with tariffs and possibly a US ban on TikTok (Coin flip).

10-Year vulnerable.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@SamanthaLaDuc PPI big miss,
Commodity pricing higher,

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

^CoreWeave IPO & 3x-4x levered Microstrategy ETFs in 2025 🤡

“Florida’s state officials announced that the pension fund will invest $1.85Bb worth of members’ contributions into Bitcoin to diversify its investment portfolio.”

https://t.co/iRBR1dSqjL

https://t.co/9lKDyWTS0l

Meanwhile: Leverage and Debt

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

^ Any useful quantum computer in the future that is free of errors, full fault tolerance, will need > 10,000 dedicated error-correcting qubits working alongside the programmable qubits (some estimates say > 1MM).

Quantum error correction (QEC) is essential in developing practical quantum computing systems to protect qubits from errors that accumulate quickly as the size of the system increases with the ultimate goal of QEC to achieve fault tolerance.

Qubits encounter errors due to interactions with the environment and imperfect operations, which accumulate and become more severe as the size of the system increases.

World governments have spent > $55Bn on quantum computing; How many quantum computers have been built with over 10,000 qubits (full fault tolerance)?

Answer: 0

https://t.co/EsivEekoqi

When do World Governments plan to attain such capacity within QC? 2030

Translation: It can either be “artificial,” or “intelligence” but not both. 🤡

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Singapore shell corps for the win 🥇 🤡

In 2023, Singapore’s semiconductor manufacturing generated over S$133 billion (US$101 Bn), its largest manufacturing sector.

The sector accounts for ~7% of Singapore’s GDP.

https://t.co/eGvnrQkdaU

Odd list.^

https://t.co/HJuBwbaS9k

[investingLive @investingLive_]

Singapore Q3 GDP +5.4% y/y (expected +4.6%, preliminary 4.1%)
https://t.co/3Knrkg0J1f

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@DarioCpx ^PLTR 29.5x book value with 40% contract revenue growth and an administration that is being replaced.

Palantir could crash from $60-80; Or it has an AppLovin moment and hits $100 by Year End. 🤡

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Long Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
Q3 2024 earnings call

-MRD revenue +52% YoY
-ClonoSEQ volumes +30% YoY
-HCP orders +39% YoY
-Medicare Gapfill rate +17% YoY
-April ODAC, Biopharma tailwind
-16 new-closed MM (myeloma) studies
-Operating exp. -11% YoY
-Physician MRD expansion

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Long Adaptive Biotech (ADPT)

-ClonoSEQ (MRD) shift is brilliant
-ClonoSEQ test volume +49% Y/Y
-Immune medicine drug discovery
-Brilliant management team (founders)
-CAGR &gt; +30%
-Cash flow breakeven beginning 2026

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

The AH move in futures indicates we are close to pushing SPX $6,000, but a word of caution:

The move in bonds (assuming a Trump win) should scare the SH*T out of you.

Bond markets breaking is a system stress &amp; when you couple SMCI, Modern Day Enron, you get problems in SE Asia.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

^Now that markets have hit highs into OPEX, there is room to $5,800-6,000 as end of year election algos take control.

The logical scenario is vol crush tomorrow / gap down Monday

If SPX &lt; gamma line, SKEW/VIX breaks next week, prepare for Volatility. ♠️

https://t.co/MR048mgmaN

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@kunal00 TSLA up another $20 🤣

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

^Simple: Global Aging Demographics

Market Cap &lt; $10Bn is cheap if you assume over $3Bn in 2025 &amp; earnings growth expansion ~Q1 2026.

EXAS likely trades ~8x sales when cash flow &amp; earnings align in Q1 2026.

Return on Investor Capital Spikes 2025

Expect $36Bn in Q3 2026 ~$200

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Long Exact Sciences
EXAS - $50.30 Avg.

FY 2025 Revenue $3.2Bn
Positive Earnings Q4 2025
Free Cash Flow $366MM

Liquid Biopsy: $500MM - $750MM
Diagnostic Tests: $250MM - $500MM
Partnerships: $250MM - $500MM
International Expansion: $1.5BN - $2Bn
Digital Health: $250MM - $500MM

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Long Confluent CFLT:

Subscription Revenue +27% YoY
Cloud Revenue +42% YoY
Customers &gt; $100k in ARR +14% YoY

The Company has cash to buyback shares, and acquire other companies. Apache Kafka is a powerful platform, expect B2B enterprise software segment to expand in 2025.

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@StockSavvyShay @jaykreps @confluentinc ^Agreed. Started a position in Confluent

Entry $19.70 on 9.27.24

Free cash flow positive in 2025,
2025 expected revenue of $1.15Bn,
$1MM+ customer spend +20% YoY,
$1.93Bn in cash, market cap of $6.4Bn,
Trading at 6x next years sales, 3x cash,

Expect a buyback on 10/30/2024 ER

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@Banana3Stocks ^Anyone trying shorting MBLY &lt; $15 will get ran over going into earnings.

Especially if @Banana3Stocks is committed to buy all 16MM shares short; &gt; 220k shares, many options rolled &amp; managed when profitable. 🤣

If you know short v float, the trade reminds me of @TheRoaringKitty

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

Mobileye $15📍

Short interest rose to 22% of the float with 3 days left to cover, you know what that means…

[Brandon, PM @iTurquoiseZebra]

@Banana3Stocks ^Anyone trying shorting MBLY &lt; $15 will get ran over going into earnings.

Especially if @Banana3Stocks is committed to buy all 16MM shares short; &gt; 220k shares, many options rolled &amp; managed when profitable. 🤣

If you know short v float, the trade reminds me of @TheRoaringKitty