@bradsferguson@grant_melson All I know is the market sets the price for both. We can have a conviction one way or another, but to suggest that the FMV for TSLA is off by 900+% is non sensical in the extreme esp as the trading multiples are off the charts as it is.
@bradsferguson@grant_melson Applying $2,647 per share for Optimus a product that has zero revenue today is insane. Basically saying zero execution risk on a product that hasn’t been deployed in any meaningful way, as amazing as the vision may be.
The metric I keep coming back to for SpaceX is $/Mbps to orbit
Starlink exists because Falcon 9 dropped bandwidth deployment costs ~10x to ~$6.55/Mbps. That’s about to drop again to just $0.30/Mbps because of Starship.
A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%… It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this.
The math assumes a reusable Falcon 9 launch is 17 tonnes at $1,000/kg and 2,600 Gbps per launch. Starship is targeting 100 tonnes at under $185/kg and 61,000 Gbps per launch. That's $17M for 2,600 Gbps ($6.55/Mbps) verse $18.5M for 61,000 Gbps ($0.30/Mbps).
Starship's additional volume allows for larger satellites, enabling simultaneous gains on multiple cost curves. The math suggests V3 satellites are ~600 Mbps/kg vs ~150 Mbps/kg from V2 mini.
Combining the 4x improvement on satellite bandwidth density with a 5x improvement in launch gets you the 20x improvement to 30 cents per Mbps to orbit.
These are fairly conservative assumptions because launch probably comes in even lower as Starship ramps, and satellite improvements probably keep coming. At $0.10 / Mbps, $1 billion spend on launch represents 10,000 Tbps or about 15x the bandwidth of Starlink's constellation today.
$1B is 90 days of operating income for Starlink... at it's current scale...
Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now.
The greatest miscalculation of all was attacking a country that proved a stronger future was possible despite direct Iranian aggression. A country where about 500,000 Iranians live alongside 200 nationalities in peace and prosperity. What the UAE built through stability, opportunity, and coexistence, the IRGC could never manufacture through propaganda not even in a million years. And it pisses them off.
Ufff, buenísimo este compilado de 8 minutos y medio con las mejores jugadas (62) de Maradona en sus 4 Mundiales, desde las primeras ante Bélgica en 1982 hasta las últimas vs Nigeria en 1994. Para disfrutar!
Agree with the sentiment but Elon controls 85%+ SpaceX voting rights through a dual class structure. Assuming only Class A shares are effected for the TSLA merger then in theory a merger of equals will keep him comfortably in control.
I believe the higher the premium offered to Tsla shareholders, the lower Elon's overall control.
The said I believe that threshold where he could lose control is relatively high - i.e. 200-300%.
So in theory I think a 50-100% premium should be enough depending on where the relatively value of both companies is on public markets.
A fight between two mice on a London Underground platform
The photo, taken by Sam Rowley, won the Wildlife Photographer of the Year People's Choice Award in 2020
The attempt to sabotage a photographer’s chances ended up creating the most memorable image of his career.
Everyone at the regional zoo photography competition knew he was the favorite. Year after year, his elephant photographs stood out, and he had earned a reputation for being one of the friendliest people there, always gracious even when others hoped someone else would finally take the top prize.
So when a zoo insider quietly helped a competing friend, they thought they had found the perfect way to stop him. He was assigned the worst elephant viewing slot of the day, a time when the elephants were usually resting and inactive. Since his winning images often showcased their strength, movement, and personality, it seemed like a guaranteed disadvantage. He realized exactly what was happening, but instead of arguing or complaining, he simply picked up his camera and headed in as if nothing had changed.
When he arrived, he found an elephant peacefully resting among a pile of old tires, completely still, with a small butterfly perched on its trunk. Rather than trying to force a dramatic shot, he patiently waited. Moments later, the elephant opened its eyes and awkwardly crossed them to look at the butterfly sitting inches from its face.
The result was one of the funniest and most unexpected wildlife photographs anyone at the event had ever seen. 😂
The image went on to win the competition and quickly spread far beyond it, becoming a reminder that sometimes the obstacle meant to hold you back ends up leading directly to your greatest opportunity.
I organized an intervention to stop Elon from starting SpaceX. Here is the story...
Twenty five years ago, Elon and I sat in a car on a dark stretch of Long Island highway, two neurodiverse geeks staring at the night sky and wondering what came next. We had both experienced substantial exits and felt the weight of possibility ahead of us.
When I joked about 'space' while gazing upward, neither of us imagined we were planting the seed for what would become the largest IPO in history. We spent the next two hours debating why space was so hard. In the end, rockets are fuel and metal. We also debated where to go, and it was crystal clear that Mars was the only real destination.
Upon returning to NYC, we embarked on a global tour of space, meeting space agencies and luminaries worldwide. This opened our eyes to an industry stuck in bureaucratic thinking. If things continued at that pace, it was clear that we would never explore space in our lifetime.
So, we launched Life to Mars to show the world that two ambitious young men (29 and 30 years old), could send life to Mars without any government backing or support. We planned to send and grow plants on Mars, though some were pushing us to send mice.
We had a $50 MM budget that rested on our purchase of two Russian ICBMs for $7 MM each. We assumed one ICBM would fail, and we would learn and fix everything before launching again. When Elon went back to actually buy the ICBMs, the Russians tripled the price, bringing out launch costs from a total of $14 MM to $42 MM.
Our ambitious Life to Mars plan was no longer viable.
As you might imagine, Elon was not pleased. So, he decided to start SpaceX and create his own Mars rockets. Now, this is a crazy idea, both now and at the time, so I organized a large panel of top space experts, and we ambushed him at the Georgian Hotel one morning. It was set up like an intervention for an alcoholic, but for space.
Elon looked me in the eye when leaving the room and said, "I am going to do this." The intervention failed. Elon was committed. The rest is history.
I am excited to see this IPO after 25 years of hard work. What SpaceX has done is a testament to human will and overcoming insurmountable obstacles. It's nothing short of amazing.
Congratulations, E. Amazing.
Scientists Develop DNA Nanorobot That Targets Cancer Cells
A team of researchers at Karolinska Institutet has created a tiny DNA-based nanorobot designed to attack cancer cells while minimizing harm to healthy tissue.
One of the major difficulties in cancer treatment is that many therapies cannot distinguish perfectly between cancerous and healthy cells, often leading to unwanted side effects. The newly developed nanorobot aims to address this challenge by remaining inactive as it travels through the body.
Built using a technique similar to DNA origami, the microscopic structure stays folded shut under normal conditions. It is engineered to respond to the more acidic environment often found around certain tumors. When it detects these conditions, the nanorobot unfolds and releases molecules that activate Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) receptors sometimes referred to as “death receptors.”
These receptors can trigger apoptosis, the body’s natural process of programmed cell death. Although scientists have long explored using these receptors in cancer therapy, a major obstacle has been avoiding damage to healthy cells that also carry them. The nanorobot’s pH-sensitive design provides a potential way to deliver the treatment more selectively.
In experiments involving mice with breast cancer, researchers reported a reduction in tumor growth of approximately 70%.
The technology remains in the early stages of development and has not yet been tested in humans. Future research will focus on evaluating safety, testing the approach in more advanced cancer models, and exploring whether the nanorobots can be adapted to target additional types of cancer.
Source: IBSA Foundation – “Nanorobot to target cancer cells and spare healthy ones.”
The body responds to intensity more than duration.
Even ~4.4 minutes of vigorous daily movement associates with ~26–30% lower mortality risk
https://t.co/0RmbHKNDU2
Newsflash - most things about the big E is staged and hes thus far played his cards perfectly (if net worth is the ultimate measure).
E.g. The 'woke mind virus' is at best a minimalist issue and is in any event countered by the equally poisonous 'red pill virus'
The West facing some sort of existential threat is manufactured bs that helps get more engagement on X. And on and on.
Tsla can be a balanced position on a portfolio without the holder being "brainwashed". I suspect the quiet majority is in this bucket. Not everyone is on X.