*Money Printing*
A seemingly simple, yet confusing topic.
I mean, why even sell bonds to the public, when the Fed can just print more dollars and pay for whatever the government wants to spend?
The answer is simple but requires a little critical thinking.
Time for a Fed 🧵👇
Delayed gratification is the key to the life of your dreams.
Everything you want in life is on the other side of something that sucks.
That suck might be 100 workouts.
That suck might be 100 bland meals.
That suck might be 100 hours of focused work.
The best things in life require upfront pain.
Embrace the suck.
Sunday giveaway.
1 of the earliest ordinals ever inscribed. Sub 60k. (currently 66million inscriptions) Very high value.
Like, RT, follow and drop the 🧼 below.
I know no one cares about deficits anymore because everyone is giving up on the bunch of geriatrics running the US down to the ground ahead of yet another disastrous election. BUT. IT. MATTERS.
Dec US budget deficit topped $ 2 trillion, growing much faster than GDP, now at over 7.5% of GDP. Outside of GFC and COVID it has actually never been this bad in recent history.
Everyone raves about US growth but this is really nothing to cheer. It’s the kind of dynamic that prevails in recessionary environments with rampant unemployment, not when a healthy, robust economy is growing.
Everybody knows this. So what’s new and why does matter?
It’s important because the cost of servicing the debt is now over 16% of all federal tax proceeds. What this measures shows is the ability of the economy to shoulder the cost of the federal debt, and the picture is horrible because the volume of debt and the inflation built by all the useless transfers that fueled it are crippling.
For now a major debt tantrum was avoided largely as a combination of Yellen pivoting away from notes into bills and JPOW’s signaling of rate cuts (that led MMF to migrate out of RRP into bills).
But now the party is nearing it’s end. RRP is down to just above half a trillion $ and should be totally consumed within a couple of months and bills outstanding will be at ath over $ 6 trillion.
That leaves the Fed as the only adjustment variable in town needing to both cut rates and slow down QT at a time when effective Fed Funds Rate is back to it’s lows (said differently when FCI has loosened significantly) and the fight against wage inflation is not over. Most importantly, Fed is forced into this pivot when supply chain and geopolitical risks are at their highest.
This is the material for a momentous policy mistake which premise lies in the total lack of Fed independence.
Mais purée, en quoi de telles industries ont elles besoin de l'argent du contribuable pour vivre ?
En quoi cela doit il être une priorité d'un gouvernement dont les dépenses sont > 1,5 fois les recettes ? Dans un pays où rien ne marche ? (école, hopitaux, police, justice, etc)
Thread
J'aimerais apporter une précision sur le scandale des emprunts d'État indexés sur l'inflation.
Cette mise au point est nécessaire car je sens dans le débat public une incompréhension par rapport à ce qui peut être reproché au gouvernement.
Le géant du capital-risque @a16zcrypto (qui a investi des milliards de $ dans le Web3) a publié son rapport annuel et il est vraiment TRÈS intéressant
J'ai retenu quelques points saillants que je vous résume ici
🧵 À dérouler
Europe is run by economic idiots. They are waging war on Russia wanting to shake-off their energy dependency on it, while their industry is shifting it’s production to Russia’s main ally, China, and it’s oil buyer of last resort, for energy cost competitiveness. 🤡 #winning
1. THE "ECHO BUBBLE"
Crypto Twitter is abuzz with talk of an 'echo bubble' predicted by @GCRClassic. What is an echo bubble?
Markets, especially crypto markets, are run by emotion. We dream of 'making it', escaping serfdom, breaking out of the soulless isolating labour loop.