life enjoyer

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@Franny8 Waiting on Ken to finish dumping

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@JulienTechInvst Serenity research?

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@OnodaCapital didnt he increase his puts

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@Merridew__ new positions or puts assigned

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@ContrarianCurse still bullish semicaps?

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Risk/reward seems attractive again.

Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters.

Time will tell!

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@Franny8 are you selling now or waiting for mags earnings?

[Pegasus @PegasusFund]

So the whole semiconductor industrial complex simultaneously agreed that META has a decent ai product, open source is dying and that META has the best chance of catching openai and Anthropic, all of which Semianalysis is pushing

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@Franny8 Is it over?

[dylan ツ @demian_ai]

> be semianalysis
> sunday night, markets closed, perfect drop window
> "MASSIVE DELAY: kyber nvl144 pushed to 2028"
> nvl72x2 backup cancelled, 4-die rubin ultra axed
> attach photos of a 78-layer lasagna only 3 companies on earth can bake
> log off
> be the market monday morning
> ibiden, kingboard, semco eat 10-18%
> timeline unanimously declares nvidia cooked
> be anon who reads roadmaps instead of headlines
> kyber was always a late 2027 architecture
> "delayed to 2028" = a thing not due for 18 months slipped a bit
> the 2026 money printer is rubin nvl72
> already ramping, untouched by the thread
> be the pattern
> micron hbm4 exclusion -> all three suppliers certified anyway
> socamm demand collapse -> was a supply adjustment
> cpo is dead -> opticals crash -> photonics etf launches weeks later
> strong claim sunday, sector heemed monday, nuance thursday
> every single time
> be nvidia
> your scifi rack slips
> "fine, we'll sell more of the racks hyperscalers are literally fighting over"
> most profitable cope in market history
> tldr for the group chat
> the midplane is a real monster, jefferies said it two weeks earlier and nobody cared
> the near-term impact is way smaller than the font size
> interconnect is the main character now
> mfw anon panic sold the pcb bottom because of a sunday night post

[Nick Dorsey @Midnight_Captl]

Collette shouldn’t be calling Dylan anymore. There should be no more privileged information, access, or support given

SemiAnalysis got way too influential way too fast. Not enough life experience, and now you have a bunch of kids effectively pushing around the narratives that our entire stock market revolves around. Platforming them was a mistake

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Be SemiAnalysis:

- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.

Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted

- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@WaterworldCapi1 u sold off some of it before this crash? man what was the tell

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@Franny8 Higher

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@zephyr_z9 @labubu_trader even SEMCO?

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@rubicon59 Agreed that memory demands will keep rising but anecdotally lot of leverage supporting current valuations?

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

I have read approximately 3,000 10-Ks in my life. I have read my wife’s emotional state correctly maybe 11 times. This is troubling because the skills should transfer. Both require you to look past the headline. Both require you to read the footnotes. Both require you to notice what was said last quarter that is not being said this quarter.

I can spot a goodwill impairment from 40 pages away. I cannot spot that my wife has been quietly furious since Tuesday. In a 10-K I notice when management changes the word “challenging” to “dynamic” and I correctly interpret this as a warning. In my marriage my wife changed the word “fine” to “fine.” and I did not notice the period. The period was the entire disclosure.

I missed it. I read a footnote last week in a packaging company’s annual report that disclosed a related-party transaction worth $400,000 and I caught it in 90 seconds. My wife told me three times this month that she was tired and I interpreted this as “tired” when in fact it was a Level 3 disclosure requiring immediate management response. I have a system for 10-Ks. I read the MD&A first, then the risk factors, then the cash flow statement, then the notes. I have no system for my wife. She is a company that does not file. She reports continuously and without warning and the format changes every quarter. Her risk factors are not enumerated.

Her MD&A is delivered through sighs of varying length and I have not yet developed the ear. Last week she said “do whatever you want” and I did whatever I wanted and it turns out the correct interpretation of “do whatever you want” was “do not do that specific thing” and I have no idea how I was supposed to know that, and yet, looking back, the signals were all there. The signals are always there. I have been trained to find signals. I find them in companies I will never meet. I miss them in the person I have lived with for nine years. My wife has started saying things like “you would notice this if I were a stock” and she is correct. She is correct. If she had a ticker I would have already built a 6,000-word model on her. I would know her seasonality.

I would know her capex cycle. I would know which quarters historically run hot. Instead I treat her like a private company and I am surprised every time the auditors arrive. I am going to bed now. She said good night in a tone. I do not know what the tone meant. I will find out in the morning. Or I will not. The 10-K of my marriage is filed in real time and I am, as always, three quarters behind.

[life enjoyer @iammoisturized]

@SystemicStratHL great, would love to get in when you open up