Pin

Investor who is always learning
$TSLA Shareholder & Owner
CRE is my bread and butter

[Pin @iampinchou]

China is no saint. Their belt and road initiative was nothing but to gain control on other nations. If you feel they would play nicely given Canada position now, you don’t know crap.

Canada had 1 advantage, being right next to US and favorable trade terms. With that gone, we meant nothing. Our resources, especially petrol is too costly to move when you have many easier international sources.

Think it this way, if Mexico wage suddenly goes up to the same level of the US, would anyone still invest in Mexico? No. Because lower wage was Mexico’s advantage. We just lost ours. And China would exploit our position to the fullest if we go on trade talk now.

[Pin @iampinchou]

This would never work in the long run. Airlines implement AI to price gouge, someone would use AI to write another app that charges $ to cheat. Both side would have incentive to continue updating it until price gets back to exactly where it is, same for everyone. Perfect system doesn’t exist and as long as there’s a logic rules being instead of perfectly random, there’s always a way to game the system

[Pin @iampinchou]

@WangNextDoor2 這就是標準的通縮。因為一直在降。越等越便宜。導致大家不管有錢沒錢都不消費。看看日本失落的十年就是這樣的情況。
最後只有基本的開銷還有市場。

[Pin @iampinchou]

The market has no idea how significant the 50% increase in yesterday’s earnings on FSD take rate is.

Mark my words, the nvidia moment for $TSLA is going to come from FSD within the next year.

Market will finally realize, “real life AI” is not some catchy phrase. But a product that Tesla is shipping.

[Cole Grinde @GrindeOptions]

Repost this if you’ve been a $TSLA shareholder over 5+ years. 🤘🏻

[Pin @iampinchou]

@7warroom 很多人沒有住過阿根廷不知道。社會主義或者是共產主義根本就行不通阿根廷跟 Venezuela就是最好的例子。

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, hoping that the result is different.

[Pin @iampinchou]

Today’s $TSLA FSD approval in Netherlands would mark the beginning of a chain event much like how Ford’s adoption of NACS standard.

The approval shows the world that FSD can work as designed under extreme scrutiny.

EU-wide approval should be much swifter. China is likely next.

I’ve had FSD since 2020. It went from a gimmick that I try every so often, to something that I rely on daily. The progress has been incredible. And I can’t imagine ever having a car without it. It’s like once you had smartphone, you’d never go back to dumb phone.

It’s time for the world to experience the future of transportation.

[Pin @iampinchou]

@teslayoda The value that Intel brings is mainly so that Tesla can bypass the wait time for lithography machines

[Pin @iampinchou]

For anyone questioning where $TSLA was going to get its EUV lithography machines, the collab with $INTC just secured what it needed. No wait (Intel already took delivery of 2) and probably have more on order as it scales.

[Pin @iampinchou]

Investing is about lending time to a company. How long does it take for a company to achieve anything? A biochemical company coming up with new drugs. A game company to finish their game. A film studio to finish a movie.

We are lending Tesla to achieve its vision. The risk is about whether they achieve it or not. If your risk tolerance doesn’t allow you, then get out.

But if Tesla achieve what it’s planning to do, the current market cap means nothing. It would likely be worth more than the few companies behind it combined.

[Pin @iampinchou]

Your analysis focuses too much on the short term. Stock market is forward-looking. For short to work, it needs a few components:
1. Future product proven failure - Whether robotaxi/autonomous or Optimus, no other player in the world is closer of solving it. Elon might be overly optimistic in his timeline, but his argument and approach is not wrong. Whenever TSLA announce anything, all others just try to copy and pivot as quickly as they can. This is what a market leader does. Whatever they do, the market follows.

2. Liquidity problem - Tesla has over 44 billions in cash and it's generating positive cashflow in its operation (no longer burning cash to become profitable) Even in its more audacious recent announcement of 20B CapEx, it's nowhere near to cause liquidity problem. Even factoring total debt of 17B, it would still be net positive by a few Bs. "It's hard to go bankrupt if you've got no debt" - Peter Lynch.

3. Raising Capital - Even if somehow the macro changes and TSLA goes back burning cash, Elon has no problem raising capital. Companies go bankrupt or be in big distress because it's in debt and has problem raising further fundings. But this is not the case for TSLA. In fact, its market cap is so big that even raising just 3% would provide funding larger than some S&P500 company as a whole.

In short, I'd revisit your thesis base on these fundamentals to realize how wrong your article is.

[Pin @iampinchou]

The way I see it is that Tesla is aiming to revolutionize how fabs are constructed. Building a massive clean room for fab is extremely costly both in the construction and the maintenance. Just the electrical going in is nuts.

From Elon’s comments, if they can somehow get rid of the requirement for clean room, they can probably cut the building cost by an order of magnitude. A EUV machine from ASML is few hundred mil. Add everything they might need, a full line for few B a pop isn’t out of whack.

[Pin @iampinchou]

The part you are wrong is that you keep thinking that autonomous driving is a hardware problem hence the “lead” from nvda. I’m heavily invested in both companies. But nvda approach is not going to work. It’s actually a software problem once there’s enough computing power. (We already do) Without the right software, you can have all the computing power in the world on a single car, it still wouldn’t solve autonomous.

[Pin @iampinchou]

@StephenReed_AGI @XFreeze There’s no inherent need for AI to program in any other language. Programming languages and their compilers were created so that human can program. When binary is AI native language, why add another step for the same exact outcome?

[Pin @iampinchou]

@dholzric @BrewerSan @glennklockwood This ^. We don’t have that capacity. Microsoft reported shelved thousand of AI chips because they can’t get the needed power supply. And when it’s at megawatt or even terawatt scale, there’s nothing money can buy.

[Pin @iampinchou]

@stevenmarkryan SpaceX files for s-4, offers stock for stock tender for Tesla. Then IPO. No need for votes, just tesla board approval. If they reach 90%, SpaceX can even do a backend sort form merger.

[Pin @iampinchou]

@pbeisel I think SpaceX buys tsla in an all stock deal then IPO

[Pin @iampinchou]

I don't get why people are always thinking it's Tesla who needs to lead. As a public traded co, it's much more difficult to do that as it triggers voting requirement.

SpaceX can launch a tender for $TSLA, with TSLA board approval, people who wants in get SpaceX stock and people who don't want out gets cash.

No voting no mess. People who vote no or don't vote wouldn't veto such a deal.

[Pin @iampinchou]

I just want to give my $0.02 regarding SpaceX and $TSLA rumormill.

Although Tesla is usually regarded as the behemoth here and thus getting shareholders vote is complicated and time consuming, there's another way.

SpaceX can launch a tender offer for $TSLA. It can be stock, cash or a mix.

If they secured enough tender, they can even trigger back-end merger without a shareholder vote or meeting.

Much easier and less scrutiny than reverse-merging SpaceX into Tesla. And people who vote no or don't vote don't get to veto.

[Pin @iampinchou]

@SawyerMerritt From historical perspective, Elon has a great sense on timing regarding when to best spend the money. It’s a waste to spend money on building things that would yet produce good return. Very bullish.