Ian

Global equity markets, science, risk, culture, the environment, development, second breakfast.

[The Elders @TheElders]

The Elders call for bold action by world leaders to end Israel’s unlawful occupation of Palestinian territory.

Click 'Show more' read the statement in full:

The Elders today call on political leaders worldwide, and especially those with influence on Israel, to enforce the historic ruling by the International Court of Justice and bring an end to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory.

They welcome the authoritative opinion issued by the ICJ on 19 July as a definitive statement of international law. The legal consequences of this should now be implemented in full by Israel, United Nations member states and the UN itself.

The ICJ, as the principal judicial organ of the UN, found that Israel’s presence throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) including the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, is unlawful. It further found that Israel’s policies and practices amount to annexation of large parts of Palestinian territory, and constitute a breach of its international obligations on racial segregation and apartheid.

The Elders note the Court’s conclusion that Israel’s security needs can never justify permanent occupation or annexation of territory. Successive Israeli governments have been violating the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, and the prohibition of the acquisition of territory by force, for more than five decades.

At a time of political upheaval and growing geopolitical tensions, the world cannot be distracted by political events elsewhere. The ICJ ruling is a clarion call that should galvanise all leaders who respect the rule of law and are committed to a just and equitable multilateral system.

At the same time, leaders must retain an urgent focus on the situation in Gaza. We need to see intensifying efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all Israeli hostages and arbitrarily detained Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian access to address catastrophic hunger and the risk of famine across the whole of Gaza.

The terrorist attacks by Hamas on 7 October 2023 were shocking war crimes which the Elders unequivocally condemned at the time and do so again today. Almost 40,000 Palestinians are estimated to have been killed by Israeli forces since the Hamas attacks. The death toll continues to rise every day but is seemingly tolerated by some countries, while UN Security Council Resolution 2735 remains unimplemented and a ceasefire deal out of reach.

Israel has already failed to implement the provisional measures previously ordered by the ICJ, including halting its military offensive in Rafah and ensuring unhindered humanitarian access. The ongoing atrocities against civilians being perpetrated by Israel in Gaza add weight to allegations that genocide is being committed, on which the ICJ will make a final determination.

World leaders now need to make it clear whether they believe in the rule of law or not. The people of the world are watching, waiting and willing justice to prevail.

Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland and Chair of The Elders

Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General and Deputy Chair of The Elders

Graça Machel, Founder of the Graça Machel Trust, Co-founder and Deputy Chair of The Elders

Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway and former Director-General of the WHO

Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and former head of the UN Development Programme

Elbegdorj Tsakhia, former President and Prime Minister of Mongolia

Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights

Hina Jilani, Advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan and co-chair of the Taskforce on Justice

Denis Mukwege, physician and human rights advocate, Nobel Peace Laureate

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former President of Liberia and Nobel Peace Laureate

Juan Manuel Santos, former President of Colombia and Nobel Peace Laureate

Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico

Read and download via The Elders' website:
https://t.co/DAWXLpI9n2

[Ian @ianjde]

@TaviCosta Valuations are not as extreme though (see the green line):

[Ian @ianjde]

@TaviCosta The correlation does not hold over time. Look at this period from the 80ies and 90ies for example:

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Them: Since the good old days of the mid 20th century, a few people have gotten richer and everyone else has gotten poorer.

The actual data:
https://t.co/IQmfr4EYnP

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Why this sudden meltdown in bank stocks?

A couple of interesting theories and charts are doing the rounds, so let's have a look under the hood.

A thread.

1/

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

$DIS Another reorg + 7k layoffs. Parks still printing money like crazy & now make up 100% of Disney’s operating income! 😳 Media just a break-even biz, even with streaming shrinking. 🙈$5.5bn in savings planned but only $1bn this year. Divvy back… soon. Uncharted waters? 🛥️

[Randy Woodward @TheBondFreak]

When the market believes we're nearing a Fed pivot, lower in this case, the 2yr will start trading below the Fed target rate, which it did after the last hike at the Dec. 14th, 2022 meeting.

[Corry Wang @corry_wang]

1/ A Google colleague recently observed to me that computer science tends to reinvent the wheel every 20 years: “a new generation just reimplements old ideas, but with more compute”

What’s fascinating is this 20 year cycle seems to coincide with the timing of tech stock bubbles

[Randy Woodward @TheBondFreak]

If Empire new orders index is any indication of where ISM new orders will come on Feb. 1st, and there certainly appears to be a correlation, it's going to be ugly. -31.1 is the 3rd worst monthly number since the survey was created in 2001.

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

Long duration US tech “was” the trade of the last decade. Look forwards not backwards. That trade is over. What will be the one to take over?

[10-K Diver @10kdiver]

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll walk you through "Gambler's Ruin".

This is a classic exercise in probability theory.

But going beyond the math, this exercise can teach us a lot about life, business, and investing.

[Soleio @soleio]

Every time I use ChatGPT, I’m reminded of Steve Jobs describing it in this Playboy interview, Feb 1985

🔮

[Randy Woodward @TheBondFreak]

#NoSingsofRecession. Seriously, at some point in the not-so-distant future, the market is going to point back to metrics like this and ask the Fed what the he!! were they thinking.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Yes, but Wen Recession?

Let's refresh some of my forward-looking indicators to answer this pressing question.

A thread.

1/

[Rob Anderson @_rob_anderson]

The next was triggered by the y/y change from the Composite Leading Index that fell further into contraction territory. 2/3

[Dissecting the Markets @dissectmarkets]

1/ If there’s one business I’d put a big bet on for leading the new wave of innovation in this world, it would be Ginkgo Bioworks $DNA 🧬

Thread 🧵

[Ian @ianjde]

😀

[GURGAVIN @gurgavin]

MICHAEL BURRY JUST SAID THESE 200 + COMPANIES SHOULD GO TO 0 BUT HE DID NOT PROVIDE THE LIST

DON'T WORRY I GOT THE ENTIRE LIST FOR YOU GUYS.

[Dan @DanBJones]

@Trickss @PolemicTMM @MarketBlondes Here’s a good LDI explainer for you.

https://t.co/NT6cGyMLEV