World Cup 2026 is here.
I built a model to predict it. 50K Monte Carlo simulations across 4 rating engines, results conditioning daily.
🇳🇱 96% to qualify, 2% to win
🇹🇷 Top 13 globally on 3 of 4 engines, 35% to reach the QFs
Live at https://t.co/3GarFdlwJm
#WorldCup2026
When building WerksePay, I implemented this method directly because most online calculators don’t estimate bonus payments accurately.
Calculate T(R), calculate T(R+S), take the difference.
That’s why the results closely match real Dutch payslips.
https://t.co/l2AfKBLIrg
Every May, half the #Netherlands gets their holiday allowance and asks:
“Did they really tax that much?”
Most people think bonuses and #vakantiegeld are taxed at a flat percentage.
That’s not actually how it works. 🧵
This is why two colleagues with similar salaries can see different withholding rates on the same bonus.
The calculation depends on their projected annual income, tax brackets, and tax credits.
It’s an incremental (“delta”) calculation, not a flat tax.
This story is actually insane:
• dude drops $2000 on a DJI robot vacuum like a lunatic
• refuses to use the normal app like a peasant
• Sammy Azdoufal fires up Claude to crack the API so he can drive it with an xbox controller
• Claude delivers the goods
• pulls an auth token from their servers, connects successfully
• except the system thinks he controls 7000 vacuums
• checks again
• yep, seven thousand
• DJI built authentication with zero device ownership verification
• any valid token works for any unit on the planet
• Sammy now has eyes inside homes across 24 countries
• live vacuum camera feeds everywhere
• full floor plans from the mapping data
• some guy in germany eating cereal at 3am, unaware his roomba is snitching
• one API call away from being the most informed burglar in history
• all he wanted was to steer his vacuum with a joystick
• does the right thing and reports it
• DJI fixes it in two days
• back to normal life with his stupidly expensive floor cleaner
• IoT companies stay undefeated at shipping garbage security
New art project.
Train and inference GPT in 243 lines of pure, dependency-free Python. This is the *full* algorithmic content of what is needed. Everything else is just for efficiency. I cannot simplify this any further.
https://t.co/HmiRrQugnP
A lot of people quote tweeted this as 1 year anniversary of vibe coding. Some retrospective -
I've had a Twitter account for 17 years now (omg) and I still can't predict my tweet engagement basically at all. This was a shower of thoughts throwaway tweet that I just fired off without thinking but somehow it minted a fitting name at the right moment for something that a lot of people were feeling at the same time, so here we are: vibe coding is now mentioned on my Wikipedia as a major memetic "contribution" and even its article is longer. lol
The one thing I'd add is that at the time, LLM capability was low enough that you'd mostly use vibe coding for fun throwaway projects, demos and explorations. It was good fun and it almost worked. Today (1 year later), programming via LLM agents is increasingly becoming a default workflow for professionals, except with more oversight and scrutiny. The goal is to claim the leverage from the use of agents but without any compromise on the quality of the software. Many people have tried to come up with a better name for this to differentiate it from vibe coding, personally my current favorite "agentic engineering":
- "agentic" because the new default is that you are not writing the code directly 99% of the time, you are orchestrating agents who do and acting as oversight.
- "engineering" to emphasize that there is an art & science and expertise to it. It's something you can learn and become better at, with its own depth of a different kind.
In 2026, we're likely to see continued improvements on both the model layer and the new agent layer. I feel excited about the product of the two and another year of progress.
What happened last night is something that I thought was only a dream. The strongest aurora ever, above the Dutch windmills. I still can't believe this was real. Captured after midnight in The Netherlands.