Adrian Ifrim

Economist @EU_commission, PhD @IDEA_UAB @barcelonagse @CREIResearch, visiting @econUCL, former @ECB Financial Research, Macro-Finance, Monetary, Asset Pricing

[Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @FlorinBilbiie]

New paper with Marc Melitz (major revision, supersedes our "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions"):
"Supply Shocks in a Heterogeneous-Firm New Keynesian Model: The Entry Multiplier."
Let's think about "supply shocks" and monetary policy's response .... 🧵
1/15

[Galo Nuño @NunoGalo]

For ~40 years, we've assumed RBC models imply a tiny welfare cost of business cycles.

In a new paper w/ V. Carvalho & @matias_cova2 we show that it's an artifact of the single‑sector assumption.

Drop it, and the cost is ~100x larger.

A 🧵 (1/n, n= 12)

https://t.co/nsDBi3D1Lr

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

If you are at the @SEDmeeting and curious about how investors’ return expectations shape wealth inequality have a look at this session

[Pau Belda @pauism]

Athens bound 🇬🇷✈️ for the @SEDmeeting!

Tomorrow: Learning to Be Rich — my work with @ifrim_a and @JankoHeineken on how heterogeneous expectations can amplify wealth inequality.

New empirical evidence, and Internal Rationality & Neural Networks for solving heterogeneous-agent models.

July 2, 12pm, Location: Alpha32

[Gergő Motyovszki @motyo6]

1) EU has lagged the US in productivity growth for decades. But at current purchasing power, hourly incomes seem not to have diverged. Does this mean Europe is not falling behind? A lesser-known national accounts indicator — real Gross Domestic Income — suggests otherwise. 🧵

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

Very happy to see our paper “Learning to be rich: how expectations amplify wealth inequality” with @pauism and @JankoHeineken featuring in the program of the @nberpubs Summer Institute 2026: Inequality and Macroeconomics https://t.co/9fEVKYOqj8

[Finbar Curtin @FinbarCurtin]

1/n) New working paper: “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”, with @matthewgburgess.

We argue that it is not possible to reliably estimate economic climate damages from historical data.

Link below.

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

@mean_field_zane You can check this paper: https://t.co/q9U3XRz0nB, they show that a constant gain learning approx well stock return beliefs

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

@Masek_F @SapienzaRoma @c_cantore @FlorinBilbiie Congratulations! Hope to see you at ERMAS this year!

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

That’s a wrap of the European Econometric society winter meeting, great papers, learned a lot attending the various sessions

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

Please support our PhD student Isaac 🙏

https://t.co/A9ViwHIRlm

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

This latest #SUERFpolicybrief summarizes our work on the channels and effects of a slowdown in globalization. We think of (de) globalization as acting through two channels: willingness to integrate (home bias) and ability (trading route costs).

[SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum @suerf_org]

#SUERFpolicybrief “The #Macroeconomic Effects of Deglobalisation" by Christian Buelens, Leonor Coutinho, @ifrim_a, and Marco Ratto (@EU_Commission)

📄https://t.co/FXHyGfLIeL

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

Today we had Ramon Marimon at the @EU_Commission JRC. Great presentation on how to improve EU debt sustainability.

[Enric Martorell @EnricMartorell]

A fantastic JMP by @tag_elena (who I am proud to call my wife) showing how credit frictions shape the spatial (mis)allocation of human capital.

[Henrick Johansson @compliantvc]

I raised a €100 million to invest in European startups

However, the European Financial Innovation Committee suggested I reduce my fund from €100m to €3m after going through their 18 month approval process

After paying a 60% VAT, I have €1.2m left to invest into startups

All investments will be subject to government approval and additional taxes

Which talented EU founders should I meet?

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

New WP on the effects of (de)globalization is out: we analyze quantitatively in a multi-region DSGE model the channels (price vs preference) through which a slowdown in globalization can impact the EA, US and global economy. 👇

[EU Economy & Finance @ecfin]

📘 New publication on 'The Macroeconomic Effects of Deglobalisation' is out!

The paper presents a model-based assessment of the impact of structural drivers of deglobalisation.

💡Read more: https://t.co/1eRnch6Ers

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

Our latest VOXeu column argues that the persistent EA trade surplus has its roots in global productivity differentials.

👇

Europe’s trade surplus, international relative prices, and the productivity growth gap https://t.co/mfPv2LEGQA # via @cepr_org

[NBER @nberpubs]

Describing nine implications of the interconnectedness of fiscal and monetary policy that surface in HANK models, from @GregWKaplan https://t.co/5bt9EAZMvG

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

Happy and honored to have received the ERMAS Association Prize for the paper “Heterogenous Expectations and Wealth Inequality” (joint work with @pauism @JankoHeineken ). Many thanks to the ERMAS scientific and organizing committee for yet another inspiring edition.

[Adrian Ifrim @ifrim_a]

Happy to see this out!

[CEPR @cepr_org]

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20476
Persistent Global Growth Differences and Euro Area Adjustment: Real Activity, Trade and the Real Exchange Rate
Adrian Ifrim @EU_ScienceHub, Robert Kollmann @ecares_ulb @UPECactus, Philipp Pfeiffer @EU_Commission, Marco Ratto @EU_ScienceHub, Werner Roeger @DIW_Berlin @VIVES_KULeuven
https://t.co/qES0DVissE
#CEPR_IMF #EconTwitter

[Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @TimTkehoe]

“Artificial Intelligence and Learning the Macroeconomy: Workshop in Honor of Albert Marcet,” BSE Summer Forum, 19-20 June 2025.

⁦@bse_barcelona⁩