Ilia Lotov

Founder & Principal at Kaizen X Cap. @MIT Sloan and @penn_state alum.
PE/Finance. SMB/ETA. Opinions are my own. Nothing is fin advice

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@BrendanFoody Sauna hats are a must. Surprisingly few people in the US know about them. Every time I wore one in the MIT gym sauna, people would ask what it was for. Same almost everywhere I go in the States.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@OneManLBO In his view, it was the centerpiece of the deck and core of his thesis!

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@daniel_s_larson Hyatt Regency SF is such an architectural marvel. Love it.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

Not always. Graham Weaver’s @GrahamCWeaver early Alpine investor experience is a good counterexample. He bought businesses at very low prices / below NAV and even wrote “mathematically impossible to lose money” in three IC memos. Lost money on all three I believe. So sometimes cheap is just cheap.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

The route isn’t completely fixed yet.

So if there is one road, town, diner, landscape, weird local institution, or genuinely American thing between the East Coast and Cali that we shouldn’t miss — tell me.

Especially Colorado / Utah / Nevada.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

After almost 5 years in Cambridge/Boston, we packed up our life and are heading West.

Cambridge will always have a special place for me. MIT, the people I met here, and a pretty consequential few years of my life. Even 617 somehow feels personal: Boston’s area code also happens to be my birthday.

But in the finest American tradition, when in doubt: go West.

In 1849, the rush was for gold. In 2026, apparently, it’s all about AI.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

We could obviously just get on I-80 and be in California as quickly as possible.

But I genuinely believe America 🇺🇸 is one of the most beautiful countries in the world (if not the most), so that seems like a waste.

We’re taking the long way through Colorado, Utah and Nevada, with a return to many of my favorite places somewhere in the middle.

Going to document the trip here.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@stanleefounder Wait, Citadel is in SF now? Someone should probably tell Ken Griffin.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@Jason Grand Seikos are amazing, both spring drive and quartz. Next level craftsmanship across the board. Would love to add ice-blue SBGY007 to the collection.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@DanielSLoeb1 @John_Hempton AI may have scaling laws, but hedge funds still have margin calls. Prime brokers don’t “trust the trendline.”
They mark to market and call it situational awareness.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@bznotes @bznotes I exercised situational awareness and decided the website could survive without my take today.

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@seeamshahidnoor @a16z @speedrun Congrats🥳

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@marshal 🫡

[CF @Clearingfog_]

Know a CIO (ex PE guy) at one of these roll-ups and the VC asked him if a QoE was necessary for the add-ons they were doing. Good luck

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@calebwatney Very cool to see @pierre_azoulay, who was one of my professors at MIT, mentioned several times on the list.

[Bret Taylor @btaylor]

I deeply resent that AI has forced me to eliminate em dashes from my writing for fear of signaling slop

[Zach Gordon @zachdgordon]

AJ Wasserstein's latest paper investigates why search fund acquisition rates have fallen from 70% to 40%.

In short, ETA got crowded and everyone is looking for the same thing.

A primary reason Tyler and I explored franchising was to avoid the crowd. The other was that you can actually find great businesses. I think that was the point of ETA to begin with?

Highly encourage anyone interested in ETA to check out AJ's papers (which he posts online for free).

https://t.co/ZfldS8LGhZ

[Ilia Lotov @ilialotov]

@Mileage_impo BMW S65 4.0L V8

[Will Schryver @Will_Schryver]

The M&A roll up story

$0 → 4x Founder
4x → 8x Ind. Sponsor
8x → 16x Private Equity

The Founder starts from $0, builds something out of nothing.

Sells the $600k EBITDA Co for $2.5M to an Independent Sponsor searching for his first deal

Timeframe to Exit: 10-30+ years

The Independent Sponsor starts with an established brand, builds a professionalized growth machine

Sells the $2.5M EBITDA Co for $20M to a Private Equity firm with a platform

Timeframe to Exit: 5-9 years

The Private Equity firm continues to buy 10+ independents, consolidating into a professionalized corporate platform

Sells the $25M EBITDA Co for $400M to a Strategjc

Timeframe to Exit: 3-5 years

M&A in HVAC, Plumbing, Electrical, and Roofing & Exteriors
👇🏼
https://t.co/uUhtFmizxA