was confused why elon would rent colossus
turns out xai needs cash for colossus 2, h100s are already legacy and anthropic would pay any price to handle their demand.
also all the compute from google and amazon will happen won't come anytime this year...
We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity.
This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.
meesho’s ai-heavy shareholder letter isn’t for engineers or customers. it’s for analysts. they’re installing the “ai infra co” mental model now so the next 4 quarters of losses get coded as capex, not bleed.
Today, we're excited to launch AI Coverage (insurance for when your AI messes up).
Insurance was built for risks that have existed for decades. AI is creating a new category very quickly.
New media runs on speed.
@pmarca on the OODA loop:
"Speed wins."
"If you can have a sustainably faster OODA loop processing cycle than the next guy... then if you think about what happens — let's say it takes an hour to figure something out."
"It takes the other guy two hours to figure something out. Think about what happens is: you start out on even playing field. You both start your decision making cycles."
"You make your decision within an hour. The other guy is still say, is inside his own OODA loop when you make your decision, right?"
"He's only halfway through his process, he now has to start his process over, right — because you've changed the landscape. You've changed the parameters of what's going on. So he now has to go back and re-serve and reorient and start over."
Observe, orient, decide, action.
> you finally said “fuck it”
> left tech for good
> no worries about AI
> don’t care about rate limits anymore
> started a plumbing business
Every single day I become more convinced that the next winners in vertical software won’t have a UI.
They will be API-first/Agent-first products that integrate directly into a company’s Slack, Teams, Email or browser.
Sales team doesn’t want another dashboard. They want deals automatically qualified in their CRM.
Your accountants don’t need another portal (although they do love portals). They want invoices reconciled in the tools they already live in.
A UI-less future is coming and for so many reasons it will make software better:
> Zero onboarding friction (no new tool to learn)
> Zero context switching (works where you already work)
> Zero UI maintenance (the platform handles that)
My working thesis (still tbd) is that we are moving from “software you visit” to “software that visits you.”
The Onion Theory of Risk by Marc Andreessen:
"I think the single biggest thing entrepreneurs are missing, both on fundraising and how they run their companies, is the relationship between risk and cash.
The relationship between risk and raising cash, and then the relationship between risk and spending cash.
So I've always been a fan of something that Andy Ratcliffe taught me years ago, which he called the onion theory of risk.
Um, which basically is, you can think about a startup like on day one, um, as having every conceivable kind of risk, right?
And you can basically just make a list of the risks. And so you've got, you know, founding team risk.
You know, do the founders, are the founders gonna be able to work together?
Do you have the right founders? You're gonna have product risk. You know, can you build a product?
You'll have technical risk, right? Which is maybe you need a machine learning breakthrough or something to make it work.
Are you gonna be able to do that? Um, you'll have, you know, launch risk.
Will the launch go well? You'll have, you know, market acceptance risk.
You'll have revenue risk.
A big risk you get into in a lot of businesses that have a sales force is, can you actually sell the product for enough money to actually pay for the cost of sale?
So you have the cost of sale risk. If you're a consumer product, you'll have a viral growth risk.
Well, you get the thing of viral growth. And so, a startup at the very beginning is basically just this long list of risks.
And then the way that I always think about running a startup is also the way I think about raising money, which is it's a process of peeling away layers of risk as you go.
And so you raise seed money in order to peel away the first two or three risks.
The founding team risk, the product risk, and maybe the initial launch risk.
You raise the A round to peel away the next level of product risk.
Maybe you peel away some recruiting risk because you get your full engineering team built.
Maybe you peel away some customer risk because you get your first five beta customers.
And so basically the way to think about it is you're peeling away risk as you go.
You're peeling away risk by achieving milestones.
And then as you achieve milestones, you're both making progress in your business, and you're justifying raising more capital.
And so you come in, and you pitch somebody like us, and you say you're raising a B round.
The best way to do that with us is you say, okay, I raised a seed round, I achieved these milestones, I eliminated these risks.
I raised the A round, I achieved these milestones, and I eliminated these risks.
Now I'm gonna raise a B round. Here are my milestones, here are my risks.
And then by the time I go to raise a seed round, here's the state that I'll be in.
And then you calibrate the amount of money that you raise to spend to the risks that you're pulling out of the business.
And I go through all this, in a sense this sounds kind of obvious, but I go through all this because it's a systematic way to think about how the money gets raised and deployed.
As compared to so much of what's happening, especially these days, which is just, my God, let me go raise as much money as I can.
Let me go build the fancy offices, let me go hire as many people as I can, and just kind of hope for the best."