Matteo Marinelli

Incentives & system-level thinking | Founder of @QuartzResearch | Ex STIR trader | Author of | DM for consulting

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Marginalia: a newsletter on incentives.

Every Saturday at 9:00.

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[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

To understand a system, ignore what it says it rewards and watch instead what it actually promotes.

"The purpose of a system is what it does" - @incentivising

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Reputation is the currency your name gets priced in: it takes ages to build, and minutes to ruin.

"For as Cicero says, even those who argue against fame still want the books they write against it to bear their name in the title and hope to become famous for despising it"

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Companies often ask for total loyalty, but offer little security. You're told to buy into a "mission" while they can cut your job or benefits to hit quarterly numbers.

But this is not a bug, it's a feature, so treat it that way.

The future is specialists who work with companies on clear, transactional terms.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

The concept of the civilian is a historical anomaly that is rapidly closing.

For a brief window, states were powerful enough to wage war using specialized subsets of the population while the rest operated factories and consumed media. Now, the theater of conflict is entirely ambient: information operations, supply chain disruption, and psychological attrition do not recognize the boundary of your front lawn.

If you are still orienting your life around the assumption of perpetual peacetime, you are a passive resource waiting to be harvested. The people who understand this have already reorganized their networks into operational cells.

Friends who act like alliances, careers optimized for their own operational objectives. The social contract was torn up.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

The moment your best people see mediocrity go unaddressed, the incentive structure updates in real time, and effort becomes optional for everyone watching.

And then, you have a whole cultural problem to fix, when a single 1-on-1 would have prevented it.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

You don't need discipline when you have no alternatives:

- When I'm studying, I'm in an empty room and can do nothing but study.
- When I'm writing, I only have Obsidian in full screen, with airplane mode on.
- When I'm working, only the work phone is on.

Discipline takes too much energy. It's way easier to just make whatever you have to do the easiest choice.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Sunday, never doom

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@PaperBozz I've seen it first-hand. When it happens, it's just a question of time before everyone thinks: "Why should I put more effort, when he/she doesn't and nobody seems to care?"

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

The moment your best people see mediocrity go unaddressed, the incentive structure updates in real time, and effort becomes optional for everyone watching.

And then, you have a whole cultural problem to fix, when a single 1-on-1 would have prevented it.

[Quartz Sea Research @QuartzResearch]

Quartz Sea turned four months old this week!

We're building fast. New features, real improvements.
And we want to build the right things.
That means hearing from you.

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[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@alexeixbt One of the best predictor of success, indeed, is the ZIP code. Not the race, not the family connections.

We are really shaped by what we compare ourselves to.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@LifeMathMoney Taught by people who never ran one, because we all know theory is what truly matters in business

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@MindfulDataPath Yes, I remember that tweet! If only search worked...

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Don't let me tap the sign

[Lân @MindfulDataPath]

Very sad. But not surprising.
@IncentiveWizard

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@NumanThabit This is interesting, but from my understanding the issue is more the inherent vulnerability of Tor than Monero, or am I missing something?

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@NumanThabit

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

You don't need discipline when you have no alternatives:

- When I'm studying, I'm in an empty room and can do nothing but study.
- When I'm writing, I only have Obsidian in full screen, with airplane mode on.
- When I'm working, only the work phone is on.

Discipline takes too much energy. It's way easier to just make whatever you have to do the easiest choice.

[alexei @alexeixbt]

game theory fix for lack of willpower:

eliminate choice entirely.

hernán cortés burned his ships so his troops couldn't retreat.

you don't need more discipline. you need a commitment device, a constraint that makes backing out mathematically impossible.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@pmitu Motivation only lasts for so long, you need to make whatever you need to do the easiest choice

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

You don't need discipline when you have no alternatives:

- When I'm studying, I'm in an empty room and can do nothing but study.
- When I'm writing, I only have Obsidian in full screen, with airplane mode on.
- When I'm working, only the work phone is on.

Discipline takes too much energy. It's way easier to just make whatever you have to do the easiest choice.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

Reputation is the currency your name gets priced in: it takes ages to build, and minutes to ruin.

"For as Cicero says, even those who argue against fame still want the books they write against it to bear their name in the title and hope to become famous for despising it"

[Machiavelli Bot @UnmodernmanBot]

Your reputation operates like a line of credit. Years of reliability allow people to trust you before every fact is available, forgive an isolated error, and place larger responsibilities in your hands. Repeated small defaults raise the interest rate until even your honest words require verification.

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@JackOfFaces Having power simply removes the filters someone has on, as they start believing (sometimes correctly) they are now above the consequences

[Matteo Marinelli @IncentiveWizard]

@theralkia How can they not? Social media is built around a cult of personality, and it takes quite an effort for anyone posting consistently not to get high on their own supply