Abhijit Nayak

Momentum investing, and some more. I journal my investing journey on YouTube. Link below.

[Anoop @CalmInvestor]

344 IPOs listed in India over the last 12 months. ₹1.6 lakh crores raised.
Median return? Zero.
Half are underwater. Here's what the data shows 🧵

[Abhijit Nayak @investing_fool]

So much outrage over Sathe's 'scam', but was it really a surprise for anyone?
I have one simple advice for SEBI to pre-empt these: just watch some Finance videos on YouTube once in a while and monitor the ads! That's it.🥱
#sebi #stockmarket #Scam #AvadhutSathe #Trading

[Markets Today @marketsday]

#Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index is set for a major overhaul next week, with changes taking effect at the close on 30 December. As many as 19 components are expected to be replaced, making this one of the most significant reshuffles in recent years.

Among the likely inclusions are Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, AU Small Finance Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Asian Paints, Fortis Healthcare, State Bank of India, Glenmark Pharma and Hindalco, among others.

On the other hand, Shree Cement, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Dixon Technologies, ICICI Bank, Divi’s Laboratories, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharat Electronics and Bajaj Finserv are among the names expected to be dropped.

Analysts estimate that the rebalancing could trigger trades worth Rs 16,300 crore. Heavyweights such as Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, SBI and Hindalco may each see passive inflows of nearly Rs 600 crore,

Conversely, Bajaj Finserv, Bharat Electronics, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC Life Insurance and ICICI Bank are projected to face passive selling of more than Rs 600 crore each, according to an analysis by Brian Freitas of Periscope Analytics, published on Smartkarma. Most other stocks are projected to witness inflows or outflows ranging between Rs 100 crore and Rs 550 crore.

“Based on the expected changes to the index and weight capping, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2 percent, resulting in a round-trip trade of Rs 16,300 crore,” Freitas said.

The Nifty200 Momentum 30 index tracks the performance of the top 30 companies within the Nifty200 universe, based on their Normalised Momentum Score — a metric derived from six-month and 12-month price returns, adjusted for volatility.

[Formula 1 @F1]

Here's that Norris/Tsunoda moment 🫣

#F1 #AbuDhabiGP

[Anoop @CalmInvestor]

Amid the euphoria of Gold's all-time highs, useful to remember it also has a habit of going nowhere for long stretches of time.

[Simon Ree @simon_ree]

If your timeframe is 12 months or less, valuation has got NOTHING to do with stock price performance.

Even if your timeframe is 5 years, 68% of a stock's return can be explained by things other than valuation.

Many people refuse to accept this.

[Oracle Red Bull Racing @redbullracing]

Nobody has more wins in Mexico than Max 🏆

5️⃣ Verstappen
3️⃣ Clark
2️⃣ Prost, Mansell, Hamilton

#F1 || #MexicoGP 🇲🇽

[Zafar Shaikh @InvesysCapital]

#Sensex to #Gold ratio has slipped below 7 — an oversold zone historically.

Every time it’s entered this zone, the next bullish leg has begun within 0–4 months.

If history rhymes, markets could start rising anytime between Nov ’25 and Jan ’26.

Otherwise, let’s see if this time is different.

[Ritesh Singh @Duorope]

All Chapter of the PLA SF veteran's memoir during his tenure at LAC 2019-2021 are below -

[Anoop @CalmInvestor]

Finally: Are We Near the Bottom?

What are the chances your investment today will be negative a year from now?

This chart shows the probability of negative 1-year returns based on median stock drawdowns across NSE-listed companies:

1. The overall probability of a negative 1-year return is 20.8% (blue dashed line)
2. Counterintuitively, the relationship isn't linear. The highest risk (70-80% probability of negative returns) occurs when markets are only ~15-20% down from peaks
3. Once stocks fall >60%, historically forward 1-year returns have always been positive
4. We're currently at a -43% median drawdown with a 40% probability of further decline
5. Notice the significant probability spike in the -40% to -50% zone we're entering

Key takeaway: Historical patterns suggest there might well be some more pain before the recovery.

The list of investors who've consistently called market bottoms correctly throughout history remains stubbornly empty.
(4/4)

[Nooresh Merani @nooreshtech]

#MarketBreadth frm 52 wk highs

88% stocks down 20%

71% stocks down 30%

45% Stocks down 40%

21% Stocks down 50%.

Portfolio Drawdowns not similar as not everything tops on same day.

Be selective.Just bcoz a Stock is down 40-50% doesnt become value or interesting!

[Stable Investor @StableInvestor]

As per this interesting dataset by @ChiragP2210, we are now in the 3rd bucket where the Smallcap index is down by more than -20%.

As per the data, the frequency is once in 5 years or so. However, the last 2 such falls were more closely spaced in Jan-2018 to Mar-2020 and then again from Jan-2022 to June-2022.

[Markets by Zerodha @zerodhamarkets]

While Indian stocks faced a dip last week, gold’s glitter was unfazed. It hit an all-time high at $2,930 an ounce in the international market. In an astonishing display of its resilience, gold has already appreciated over 11% this year, and we're barely 45 days into 2022. Curious about what's fuelling this pronounced upward trend? Let's explore. 🧵👇

[Stable Investor @StableInvestor]

What is the 5-year Rolling CAGR (%) for Largecap / Midcap / Smallcap Indices in the last 20+ years?

5-Year CAGR Comparison for Nifty50 vs Midcap150 vs Smallcap250:

(Data: Apr-2025 to Feb-2025)

Currently, and even after the ongoing correction, the 5-year returns are commendable. At least for non-largecaps if not for the largecaps.

But it is easy to sit near the highs and talk about being long-term investors. The true test of investors comes when you are closer to the lower CAGR figures. Ask those, who even after investing for several years (4-5+ years) in 2013 and 2020, saw portfolios giving negative CAGRs.😀

No doubt markets eventually recover. But you can never experience the pain just by reading about it. As they say, you can't backtest emotions

Now, of course, these are index figures and you may counter that your active portfolios/funds did better. But the point is that high CAGRs for multiple years (at least at index levels) aren't sustainable unless you are a Buffett-type investor or Twitter Finfluencers-type expert. They mean revert towards long-term averages. Now this may happen via time correction and/or price correction. Not trying to predict anything but just showing the past data and observing it.

Disclaimer - The indices shown above are for illustration only. It is not a recommendation to buy/sell/hold.

[Abhijit Nayak @investing_fool]

Wise words!🤭

[Parthenon🏛️ @pjparties]

no amount of job switches / promotions can get you level with generational wealth. don’t try so hard. slow down and enjoy whatever you can. you just can’t beat it

[Abhijit Nayak @investing_fool]

I personally feel the current run maybe a bit overdone in the very short term, and I sincerely hope the counterparty risk doesn't spike. But long term, given where the world is going, there's no reason to be pessimistic. #gold #assetallocation

[Alok Jain ⚡ @WeekendInvestng]

Listening to the Bank of England farting on why the 6-8 week delivery of Gold is "normal" I am pretty convinced there is a major supply side issue and we may see 3k+ on gold soon (my guess)

Key Qs unanswered in my mind
1. Why is US premium higher if apparently no tariffs coming
2. Who is buying so much Gold at Comex
3. When a bank says logistics / being heavy a reason for delay of 6-8 weeks, it tells you there is a problem of stock

[Abhijit Nayak @investing_fool]

Nothing new, but it always hits hard!

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

95%

By the time your child turns 18, you've spent ~95% of the time you will ever spend with them in your lifetime.

There are specific windows—­much shorter than you care to imagine or admit—during which certain people and relationships will occupy your life.

You may have only one more summer with all of your siblings, two more trips with that old group of friends, a few more years with your wise old aunt, a handful of encounters with that coworker you love, or one more long walk with your parents.

If you fail to appreciate or recognize these windows, they will quickly disappear.

Time Wealth is about an awareness of these windows, and taking action against that awareness.

It's about recognizing that you are in more control of your time than you realize.

That you can take actions to create time with the people you love most.

Show up to that recital. Plan that trip with old friends. Grab that quick coffee. Go on that walk with your parents. Have that meal with your sibling.

In the end, it's not about the journey, it's not about the destination, it's about the company—­the people along the way.

Cherish the people and the rest will fall into place as it should.

These are some of the many perspective-shifting insights from my new book, The 5 Types of Wealth.

It will help you ask the questions you've been avoiding so you can create the change necessary to build your dream life.

Order your copy here (and grab one for someone you love): https://t.co/LRoU04Mh8l

[Tar ⚡ @itsTarH]

Market Breadth continues to improve
Now at mid 30s

Lets hope there no googlies in the next weeks income tax bill

[Abhijit Nayak @investing_fool]

So brace for 4 years of no action, only gyaan now? 👀 #trent

[Mystic Wealth @MysticWealth11]

Trent going the Asian paint way.

#Moat hai ya #puddle.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

Let me clearly outline my view on GOLD.

I am firmly of the view that all actions of US indicates that US does not want to remain as the only reserve currency in the world. Going back 5 centuries and 6 reserve currencies ( every reserve currency existed for 90-100 years) it is the responsibility of reserve currency to share its GDP with rest of the world, run current account deficit, thereby putting more currency in hands of rest of the world (so that its currency can be used for Global trade) ,have the strongest army in the world which can police the shipping lines, keep trade and commerce moving along smoothly.

US under President trump does not want to continue any of the above and by looks of what happened in last few days.. it is infact sick and tired of managing the world. It's like that school bully which has decided to leave the school altogether.

Global central bankers understood this and more in Feb 2022 when Russia's FX reserves were practically confiscated by G-7 with blessings of US.

Here comes GOLD... which cannot be printed, does not have counter party risk and is the only currency which has maintained and grown its purchasing power every single fiat currency in the world in last 5000 years.

Will Global central bankers continue to accumulate USD for their reserves and also promote accumulations of GOLD by their people if US is no more that bully which is breaking the contract of Reserve currency?

Unless we see an emergence of a new reserve currency willing to take that responsibility outlined above, which US is no more willing to continue with.... GOLD will continue to go up and will increasingly play the role of NEUTRAL RESERVE ASSET.