islandvalue

Global Small-Caps

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@mmonis renewed iran war, if it was solely tech, gold wouldnt be down...

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/20/2026

bought back my brazilian EP stocks, $STNE $xp and $PICS. $ewz in general reclaiming 9sma and these stocks are too. i'm thinking i eventually want to move $xp to $PAGS, but will look to do more research on biz quality of both.

in general these stocks are relatively cheap and would benefit if bolsonaro wins the election. figured i should stop trading AI stocks and look for other stuff that are earlier in the cycle. my thought process is that they can move similarly to Argentinian stocks in 2023, tho they started from a cheaper starting point. so gonna expect less in returns from these brazilian stocks.

[nextbigtrade @nextbigtrade]

In Stage 3 you don't need euphoric sentiment, but enough "fundamental bulls" to believe in a story that just doesn't pan out with price.

That's where AI/semiconductor stocks are right now, still lots of fundamental bulls that are now believing in the story after a 3 year bull market, but price no longer supports the bull case (price is now in Stage 3).

Remember the best time to buy is the Stage 2 investor breakout where the fundamental bulls don't exist, or they actually will tell you not to buy based on the fundamentals at that buy point.

Back in 2023 there were very few if any AI/semiconductor bulls. Now they are everywhere.

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

should be good for $EME $fix $STRL $IESC but these stocks are all losing 200SMAs. and it isnt a one off company underperforming, its the whole basket of them...

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Overall data center build data has been VERY strong.

Bernstein: "+456 GW project pipeline, up 52 GW or 13% M/M in September. Hyperscalers’ pipeline grew by 10.1 GW, with 3.9 GW from Amazon, 3.8 GW from Google, and 2.4 GW from Meta."

“Under Construction. Construction grew by 7 GW (+10% M/M) with Google contributing 2.1 GW and Microsoft breaking ground on ~1 GW. Colos (1.4 GW), Neoclouds (1.1 GW)"

“Stranded Capacity. Grew 2 GW in September, a notable deceleration vs. the 7 GW added in August.”

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/19/2026:

No trading today, but some of these AI charts seem to be developing into charts similar from boom bust stocks in 2020. comparing $sndk $axti $cohr to $zm $ATER $ nvax $BLNK

these stocks obviously looked really cheap as it was going down as earnings was a lagging indicator and got cheaper as earnings caught up as share prices went down.

i think the ai capex market can still be saved if hyperscalers revised their capex guidance upwards and reaccelerated again. that would be immensely bullish for the smaller cap ai stocks. but i wouldn't really be a buyer in any other situation. multiple positive reports on AI companies did come out over the weekend but hasnt' really changed the technical picture of the charts, they all still look bad with tiny bounces.

i think that while the fundamentals look great here and things actually look cheap, but the market is trying to tell you via price and charts that the peak is behind us. and im saying this with the experience of going through 2021 where in Q3 or Q4 companies were guiding to 30-40% growth while the share price was getting demolished

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

sold my gold too, so just holding avx and cash. doubt we get any qra pump

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/16/2026:

Took a fat loss on $band $TWLO $SAIL, about 3.5% loss on account which is kinda big. Need some reviewing as i may have bought too early, definitely got overconfident after yesterday's close think the sellover is over.

Maybe $TWLO and $SAIL were reasonable trades, but i was definitely bottom fishing on $band which is not really part of my process.

still a 20% win rate since the last week of sept, not too sure what would turn this around but not trading seems to be key at this point.

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

think im about an 18% drawdown at this point, think i need to spend more time finding ways to be defensive in this market. be it being super selective on what i trade.

still expect the drawdown to get worse, my plan is to keep holding avx through all of this, so it'll definitely get worse.

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

for my own reference

https://t.co/W0mwbZ1xuB

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@RealSimpleAriel listened to your stream a couple days back and LOL-ed at this tweet

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/15/2026

bought some $SAIL $TWLO $band today. looking for a bounce and hopefully holding it till end of oct. won't plan to hold twlo or band through earnings, and if i do it wouldnt be more than 25% of original position.

not looking to touch semiconductor related stocks, im sure some can play for a bounce well but that trade seems kinda cooked. my thought is that i rather stay in stocks that have showed recent strength. if i were to play bounces i would plan to be really quick with taking profits.

still holding gold, thought it was kinda strange that rates went down more as ppi came in hot, but seems like that is calling the top in the 10/30 yields. maybe we can get another rise in yields if we decide to reengage in iran again, so gotta manage the gold position accordingly. if i get that move, was planning in buying long rates. seems like a lot of bad eco data couldn't force the market lower which seems to be a ST bottom for now.

no real opinion on the whole anthropic ARR stuff, esp with regards to gross/net and how stuff is calculated. but my opinion thought is that its closer to the end of hypergrowth than beginning, so the whole ai capex trade is coming to an end. usually when its early, its super hated on + numbers tell a clear story. currently people spend so much time trying to defend the narrative + ticker trends showing some flat lining. (i appreciate that they reduced distillation and model release timings may affect ARR) but the ai capex trade is definitely less clear to me.

not really sure if i want to buy the dips on memory too, the whole narrative and fuel for the rise was supply crunch, but that discipline is coming to an end too, with toshiba and other guys trying to increase supply.

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@DsrPrivate bob elliot? whats wrong with that? or you want it to stay non consensus?

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/14/2026:

bought some gold futures today, day traded it alittle for a tiny loss but bought back to target level at end of the day. did it cause rates reversed even tho CPI was hot. if rates topped for here, then the bottom for gold should be around 4050/4100. seasonals are constructive for gold too. ultimately looking for a move to 4500-4600. not too sure what to expect after.

apart from gold and $AVX, in cash for everything else. A bit annoyed that i tried to buy $ff but was pretty illiquid so i scratched that. had orders to buy $CF but that keeps drifting up too.

every tech name in my watch list down 5-7%. market internals look really ugly. not even sure what the bullish catalyst in the near term would be. trump intending to restart the war after the midterms would not be good too (and for gold). so trying to stay as liquid as possible by owning a ton of cash and trading liquid stocks/futures.

i have traded very little single names, and intend to keep that the same till the market gets stronger.

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

10/12/2026:

Took off whatever gold futures i bought on sunday evening when futures opened. thinking that there would be more action in the middle east after the saudi bombing. Oil staying firm helping the case to be more defensive and rates should probably edge up again.

nothing else on the stock front, was looking to buy some $TWLO and $band again, as the whole sector look decent. but quickly changed my mind when equity futures reversed overnight. gonna let things settle a bit more before taking any positions.

really choppy everywhere, tiny bounces to big drops back to back for 2 months straight. whatever stocks i bought last week ($wolf $cbrs $nvts) taking huge hits and risk management saving me.

strongest themes over the weekend were SaaS, cybersecurity, refiners, brazilian financials . the tech names definitely were not spared today. personally i would want to be in these names if we get a bounce but that doesnt seem like its happening anytime soon. Also got to think about tax loss selling as market approaches year end where a ton of high beta stocks are red from where people have most likely bought them.

crypto here actually looks decent compared to many other things. strongest names would be $btc $near $avax, other altcoins seems to be moving similarly where they are all testing the 50d moving avg

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

i believe the convert owner was anson funds and if they held it across multiple accounts, they would still have to file as a single entity. so even if they transferred it around, they would still be obliged to file.

they could have partially converted and sold, but its really hard to figure out what is happening there, so unless they file soon, i would assume that they would be the case (that they converted partially to stay under the 5% threshold)

im more of in the camp that they still hold significant shares and have not sold fully yet. the volume since Q2 doesn't really support this imo. need to have way more volume to let such a guy out

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@bdog_hh @Agri81195671938 or whether they did it 1 large chunk and would cross any reporting threshold. if they did they would have to file in 5 biz days.

i think they may potentially create an overhang in the stock for a bit which will keep discounts wider for a bit

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@bdog_hh @Agri81195671938 i think a single entity called anson owned both the 7.7m convert notes which were converted into the 2.5mm shares and the 7mm dollar note which was repaid in cash.

its hard to tell whether they converted in various pieces and sold their positions down to not breach 5%

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@Agri81195671938 @bdog_hh oops they were in the initial pipe. and saba's filing was 13g which is less aggressive than 13d, well gotta watch if they switch from 13g to 13d. that would be a big signal they want to do something

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@Agri81195671938 @bdog_hh i don't see them in the initial pipe. yeah i think death spiral is over. the toxic converts are gone

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@Agri81195671938 @bdog_hh saba only filed in aug 2026, i dont think they have been involved before?

[islandvalue @islandvalue]

@Agri81195671938 @bdog_hh if youre referring to north rock being the 19% holder they are pretty smart and would probably try to close the discount too. yeah i did not buy aggressively cause of the variable rate converts. in general these are super dilutive and create death spirals.