itsalwaysdani

Economics & Metal

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

https://t.co/otoJAd4spW

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 Buybacks

This year, announced buybacks are heading past $2 trillion, a new record. But there is a gap between what companies say and what they actually do. In practice, actual buybacks lag far behind the promises.
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoFA78

@markets $spx #spx #stocks #equity

[itsalwaysdani @itsalwaysdani]

@RichieRiiicch

[Dylan O'Sullivan @DylanoA4]

Joan Didion, every day is all there is

[Patently Apple @PatentlyApple]

https://t.co/wxmO5DAWel

[Warløck Scalping 🪖 @warlock_trading]

Who made this?? 🤣🤣🤣

[Heavy Pulp @heavypulp]

Sweet Land - an ode to America's 250th year. 🇺🇸

[Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl]

Washington hasn’t stopped dreaming

[Barchart @Barchart]

Cerebras $CBRS soars more than 19%, its biggest gain in history (yes, a short history) 📈📈

[itsalwaysdani @itsalwaysdani]

@NoName37782563 @Rainmaker1973 pretzel?

[a16z @a16z]

Against all odds.

Congrats @elonmusk and @SpaceX.

[Skscartoon @skscartoon]

SpaceX IPO will create 4,400 new Millionaires, from engineers to Cafeteria workers.

God bless Capitalism

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Nobody is trading stocks any more: it's all just options and levered ETFs

[Nate Geraci @NateGeraci]

If you want an early indication of how wild SpaceX IPO could be…

ProShares issued press release *today* indicating it plans to launch 2x leveraged SpaceX ETF on *same day* as IPO.

Will be other ETF issuers jumping in here as well.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

JUST IN: Circle Internet (CRCL) just picked up its first coverage from KeyBanc.

Rating: Sector Weight (neutral). Analyst: Alex Markgraff.

The data on CRCL right now:

$113.12 close on May 22
+42.65% YTD from $79.30 year-end close
52-week high: $298.99 (Jun 23, 2025)
Currently trading 62% below that high

KeyBanc initiating at neutral on a stock that has already run 43% this year but is still down 62% from its peak. That tells you the analyst sees the move as fairly valued here, not chasing.

Circle is the issuer behind USDC, the second largest stablecoin by market cap. The coverage initiation comes as crypto regulatory clarity continues to develop and stablecoin legislation moves through Congress.

First institutional coverage is a signal worth tracking regardless of the rating. The question is who follows and at what price target. $CRCL

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

QQQ PRE-MARKET | Monday May 25 (Memorial Day) | Tuesday Setup

$717.54 close. Oil down 5.8%. The chain reaction that matters most for QQQ just started.

Our Composite Score: -2.8 [Neutral]

THE QQQ CASE:

We published the SPX setup tonight. Here's why the same thesis hits QQQ harder.

Lower oil means lower inflation expectations. Lower inflation gives Warsh latitude on rates. Rate stability brings down the long end. Lower yields lift equity multiples. And no sector is more sensitive to that chain than tech.

QQQ is a duration bet. When the 30-year sits at 5.2%, tech multiples compress because future earnings are discounted at higher rates. If oil breaks below $100 sustainably and the inflation narrative reverses, the 30-year starts coming in. That's the multiple expansion QQQ has been waiting for since yields hit 18-year highs.

Oil down 5.8% tonight isn't a one-day trade. If Hormuz reopens on a 30-day timeline, energy prices reprice structurally. That reprices inflation. That reprices the entire yield curve. That reprices QQQ.

THE STRUCTURE:

GEX: +$44M total. Near-term: -$5M. Barely positive. The structure is thin heading into Tuesday. Not suppressive. Not amplifying. Neutral. That means the macro drives the tape, not the options mechanics. If oil's decline holds, the structure won't fight it.

Magnets above:
$720: +$27M (0.3% above)
$725: +$43M (1.0% above)
$730: +$48M (1.7% above)
$735: +$25M
$740: +$35M
$750: +$37M

The magnets ladder cleanly from $720 to $750. Every step above is positive gamma. No resistance until $750.

Accelerators below:
$700: -$28M (2.4% below)
$680: -$27M (5.2% below)
$650: -$30M (9.4% below)

The downside exists but the accelerators are far and small. The nearest is 2.4% below. Minimal near-term risk in the structure.

GEX flip: $654. Cushion: 8.6%. Deep floor. The structural insurance is intact.

IV: 26.1%. Spread: +8.9% above realized. Options are expensive. If oil's decline triggers a risk-on rally, IV compresses. QQQ has the most room for vol compression of any major ETF right now. A 9-point spread collapsing toward realized means significant mechanical support.

IV skew: -4.46%. Bullish. Calls significantly more expensive than puts. The demand for QQQ upside is priced into the options chain. The market was already positioned for this before oil moved.

Dealers short 138.8M. The engine is ready. Any gap higher forces dealer buying at the open.

Call VWAS: $736. Targeting 4% above legacy OI. The new call positioning is aimed at $730-$740. That's 2-3% above current price. The flow built into Friday's close was reaching for exactly the move oil is now enabling.

THE NVDA OVERHANG:

NVDA's vanna unwind should be mostly exhausted by Tuesday. IV crushed from 63% to 41% over two sessions. The mechanical selling pressure that dragged NVDA from $227 to $215 loses its force as IV approaches realized. If NVDA stabilizes above $215 and the oil collapse lifts the broader tech complex, the supply chain trade (NVDA, MU, AVGO) reaccelerates.

OUR THE INFLATION MATRIX:

QQQ Both Hot signal: Day 13 of 20. Target: +2.67%, 81% win rate (p = 0.006). The strongest statistical signal in our dataset. If oil's decline accelerates the inflation repricing, the matrix return could front-load in the final week of the window.

This is the catalyst the signal was waiting for. Both Hot said the market handles inflation when CPI and PPI agree. A sustained oil decline doesn't just handle it. It reverses it.

IRAN AND HORMUZ:

Nikkei reports the US and Iran are discussing a plan to reopen Hormuz approximately 30 days after reaching a deal. CENTCOM simultaneously struck military targets across southern Iran tonight. Military pressure and diplomatic progress running in parallel.

The oil market is pricing the deal, not the strikes. Crude down 5.8% tells you the commodity traders believe an agreement is coming. If they're right, the energy shock that drove the hottest inflation since 2023 starts reversing on a known timeline.

The bottom line:

QQQ is a leveraged bet on the chain reaction that just started. Oil down means inflation down means yields down means tech multiples up. No sector benefits more from a Hormuz resolution than the one most sensitive to discount rates.

The structure is thin but the magnets are above. The IV is expensive with room to compress. The inflation matrix is in its final week. NVDA's overhang is fading. And oil just dropped 5.8%.

Tuesday morning. The macro does the heavy lifting. The mechanics don't fight it.

$QQQ $NVDA $SPY

[Andrew McCarthy @AJamesMcCarthy]

I took 1.7 million photos over 6 days to catch this photo of a commercial jet in front of the sun.

The moment it happened, TWO floating prominences were visible, making this not just my best aircraft transit photo, but one of the luckiest of my career! Videos of the transit 👇

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Last 10 Years
NVIDIA $NVDA: +25,834%
Bitcoin $BTC: +17,420%
$AMD: +12,310%
Tesla $TSLA: +3,122%
Apple $AAPL: +1,355%
Google $GOOGL: +1,015%
Netflix $NFLX: +898%
Microsoft $MSFT: +794%
Amazon $AMZN: +654%
Meta: $META: +417%
S&P 500 $SPY: +323%
Gold $GLD: +255%
US Inflation: +39%